Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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For anyones interest at last weeks kodal call our ceo expects the spodumene price to be roughly our estimated average in the area of $2000 and thats when production starts, dec 24.
long way to go and doubt it will be quite that but you never know
That’s some jump . I do believe when AV says this year will be transformational the setup here is extremely good and potential growth is very hard to ignore . We will see it soon enough patience is key
#Spodumene Concentrate (6%, CIF China)
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Correct
The striking thing for me in AV's 5-minute pitch is where he talks not only of 2,000 of tin metal production, but he goes on to say that once they've integrated the lithium pilot plant into the main circuit of the plant, they are looking to increase their lithium production to 50,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate a year - and that's with little additional capital expenditure.
Even at today's depressed lithium prices, which are widely expected to pick up significantly over the next 12-18 months, that's an additional $60m of revenues a year.
Https://youtu.be/HTtRLoyiJ0M?si=R_yPGwcdHki8t4B-
I've posted this proactive video before,and just watched it through again,at 4mins on AV says he's looking at the bigger lithium players,the money for the giant stage 2 build will be a drop in the ocean to expand the plant,not forgetting it will also be on the back of the tin production. Lithium or tin for free,he also says we are on the cusp of being mid tier and our resources being a behemoth, and off the scale,and the next major milestone being the strategic partnership AV delivers upto now on everything he's promised.Im excited for the year ahead,I think some of the unhappy people ought to sell their shares and move on lol.Im here for the duration and watch the company grow,and the share price increase accordingly, Have a great easter weekend everyone 😀
Rgbuk
I wonder if Orion did a similar in depth analysis before investing in Horizonte?
TDT
For those who might of missed this short video.
And why i am so confident of a share price correction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGu4FFNceCI&ab_channel=AndradaMining
RGBUK spot on.
One thing I want to point out though is that there seem to be either complaints about speed of progress or profit. For a very junior outfit you can’t expand the operation without borrowing (and unfortunately incurring losses), but on the other hand you don’t want to over extend (just look at Horizonte)!
Personally I’m happy with the progress, let’s not forget as well tin and lithium prices were depressed for much of last year which makes forward planning/deals difficult to say the least.
However, if Orion were happy to buy in at 6.4p and have conversion options over 10p then I know they would have done the in depth analysis that reassures me.
Hopefully we all end up happy when this JV is finally announced.
The whole discussion and negativity is around the lithium deal, there is little interest in the tin except allows lithium / tantalum to be produced for free.
and the fact it has taken too long is the issue
I do wonder why some are still here if you think this is a bad investment? The fact is they are up and running fully permitted and licensed backed by a number of major shareholders . Most AIM companies never ever get to this stage and have rinsed shareholders dry . Patience is required yes it’s taking a little longer , be a different situation if prices were higher . Have to take the rough with the smooth .
CCC, i share your frustration. The reality is in the financials, something that rarely gets proper scrutiny here or by the company itself.
ATM had c. 750m shares in issue in 2021, it's now currently 1.54bn - so plenty of reasons for a dilution of the share price. There are probably more to come as i doubt the Lithium partner will just settle for loan finance, they'll want equity participation.
Cash from these additional shares has been used to finance capex, hence the bigger scale of the operation, and the by-product feeds, but some has also gone towards financing opex, plugging the shortfalls in the income statement as ATM has operated at a loss after tax since in listed in 2017. And the current forecast I can see on BB is for that to continue for the next 12 months (in fact the loss forecast for 2024 is -4.4m and for 2025 -10.2m). This may/will change after some clarity on the Li partner and what that will bring for Li sales, but currently that's unknown.
So ATM has traded at a loss for 7 years, is forecast to do so again this year, and the recent financing will probably be used up for pre-agreed capex by this time next year. So unless AV can finally delived some +ve free cash flow in this FY, as things currently stand, ATM will need more finance in 2025. And that's what the market knows, and is pricing ATM accordingly.
Valuation wise, even if they hit the BB revenue estimate for 2025, at the current share price and mkt cap, ATM trades on 2.7 times sales, which isn't cheap for a mining stock (the average is well below 2, and closer to one for the majors). At 6p, the ratio was a lot higher - in anticipation of a big increase in sales over the next couple of years, linked to the strategic partner and ramp up in tin volumes. The latter isn't now expected until April 25 at the earliest.
So effectively, ATM trades on a high multiple, is forecasted to be loss-making for another 12 months (as things stand) and has taken six months longer than first announced to secure a Li partner.
But 2024-25 could be 'transformational' for ATMs fortunes. Well, the jury isn't convinced right now.
There's no disputing the size and value of the resource it's sitting on, but unfortunately for AV and it's patient shareholders, the market isn't interested in valuing it on it's reserves. Whish makes sense, if you don't have the finance or what seems to be the urgency to monetise those reserves over a reasonable time frame. 7 years is long enough to wait for some investors, clearly.
I thought today was a decent update, I think a lot of the sellers today are the ones just in for the big news (probably strategic partner), then when it doesn’t emerge they are off.
Personally, I like how the company is building towards something good, some decent information points in the RNS, I do wish though, they get it correct first time, it’s so unprofessional when they have to re-release.
All in all happy with that and try to add when I can.
Looking rationally at the companies RNS and previous news announcements, i am trying to come to a understanding as to why the share price is where it is, my conclusion is i can't find one other than the company is just an unloved share investment currently.
Just looking at today's trades after a very solid and upbeat RNS tells you all you need to know.
AV commented in a recent interview that he always delivers targets set out, today he can add a few more on the list and i would like to thank him for this achievement.
One day investors will eventually wake up to what is going to be a very well rewarded investment journey, when that happens i don't know.
Maybe i am a little frustrated at the share price reaction, however this was always a long term investment for me personally but i would expect AV will be saying " what do i have to do " to get some kind of market recognition of a well run small cap mining company which is constantly delivering and has huge growth potential.
One day.....
I’d love to know you these silly sellers are on this news today . No helping some people .
Forget the 'deal' for a moment, which some believe - or are hoping - will be a pivotal moment for the company, and think about the sheer organic growth opportunity for Andrada to transform from a junior miner into something a lot bit bigger.
Andrada say "An exploration drilling programme is currently underway with the aim of expanding the tin resource over the fourteen additional, historically mined pegmatites that occur within a 5 km radius of the current processing plant. The Company has set a mineral resource target of 200 Mt to be delineated within the next 5 years. The existing mine, together with its substantial mineral resource potential, allows the Company to consider economies of scale."
In today's RNS they said "60% year-on-year ("YoY") increase in ore processed to 915,599 tonnes". Even at that 60% increased rate of mining the above statement implies a mine life of over 200 years.
Firstly, I know that some investors worry about mine life, but you certainly don't have to worry about that here.
Secondly, the company says that this "allows the Company to consider economies of scale"; maybe, for example, quadrupling the size of the mining plant, or whatever - the sky's the limit if they've got the resource and there's a demand for the metals it contains.
Thirdly, this is the world-class scale of asset that attracts the attention of major mining companies.
Fourthly, this is a fully permitted, built and operating mining operation.
The CEO also commented that "Although the higher stripping resulted in an increase in the AISC during the year, the exposure of the orebody's grade, diversity of minerals including lithium, and scale at depth according to our geological model, will start to become glaringly apparent placing the operations in a robust position to capitalise on the rebound in the commodities markets for all our products."
IMO, there are about half a dozen positives relating to the trend towards increased production and significant future profitability in today's RNS, which "will start to become glaringly apparent" - not least of which will be the reduced AISC going forward, especially as the additional minerals come onstream for little additional cost.
....if they are talking to Kazera about that company's Lithium and Tantalite mine in Namibia which is on the market.
Good operational update, they can run a tin mine thats for sure.
not sure about the comment regarding people selling, there is no hot money in atm and there was no run up so that wouldnt really be the usual sell on news effect.
if bidders are doing their own due diligence then that would partly explain the huge delay in strategic partner, i'm sure this isnt the normal approach as they would take the companies results but there you go.
still think the strategic partner will be around mid summer for the announcement
also they really need to proof read their RNS's better, always seem to have mistakes, just bit sloppy
LOL ... Given the operational update replacement at 9.38, I am now convinced that my words at 8.13 were read!!
So ATM, if you need a good editor, give me a buzz.
Picking over the wording in todays RNS I suspect that this:-
"Although the higher stripping resulted in an increase in the AISC during the year, the exposure of the orebody's grade, diversity of minerals including lithium, and scale at depth according to our geological model, will start to become glaringly apparent placing the operations in a robust position to capitalise on the rebound in the commodities markets for all our products."
Is largely the reason why we are still seeing this.
"Since the launch of the Strategic Process to identify an appropriate partner for the lithium development, leading international organisations within the lithium value chain have visited the Company's assets in Namibia, have conducted mineralogical test work, and have implemented detailed due diligence. Andrada has narrowed down the various non-binding indicative offers that have been received to date and discussions are ongoing with the objective of progressing to final binding bids."
Something that's "glaringly apparent" will encourage a better binding offer than not I should think.
TDT
Morning all, I know there’s a theory that every Rns is a reason to sell , but after reading that update today , us now being timescale wise yet another month further down the line , then adding in what AV said in that previous I/v with Proactive about the strategic process & literally stating huge news was on the horizon , I’m just a bit baffled as to why peeps would be offloading now when we must be fast approaching a pivotal juncture , altho look I do accept the counter views expressed here of late as a possible reason for some losing patience .
However, as Early bird rightly says we must be getting close anytime soon hopefully . Sounds all good to me .GLA
Well what was not to like about that RNS? The only critism is that it looks like someone forgot to put the column headings on Table 1. Too much excitement?
Cheeky few for me today .