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Started: SGD27, 12 Feb 2024 12:05
Last post: skid35, 12 Feb 2024 17:21
Just wonder what the "loss of office" ££££ were ?
Agree RTW seem a much better manager.
Glad the U.S. Vultures came out worst than ordinary holders.
2nd vote passed as expected (97.84%)
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ARIX/scheme-effective/16328759
I, for one, welcome our new RTW overlords.
Final comparison:
RTW(Bid) $1.38 x 1.4633 x 79.2p/$ = 159.9p ARIX
or perhaps more usefully now:
ARIX 143p / 79.2p/$ / 1.4633 = $1.234 RTW
$1.38 = $1.234 + 11.8%
No significant impact yet on the RTW SP, but let's see what happens tomorrow when the new shares arrive on the scene.
Moving over to the RTW board now I suppose. See you all there? GLA
Small correction: "$500k" should be "$500m" obviously.
That's a good list. I've also been trying to convince myself I'm missing something here, but I haven't been able to, so I've been accumulating these over the past two weeks in the expectation of reasonably easy gain (famous last words !!).
Fully expecting a small pull back on RTW with ARIX holders selling immediately after conversion, but expect that to be short lived.
Last day of Arix trading, and the SP mismatch still persists. I've tried hard to come up with ideas why this might be so, and here's a few theories:
1. The market cap is too small for institutional investors to get involved. They often impose a minimum limit on themselves. (As an aside, the merged company will have a mcap above $500k, which might bring it onto the radar for some IIs. Hopefully the liquidity might improve too.)
2. Cautious retail investors (e.g. the sort that invest in funds rather than individual companies) think there's no such thing as a free lunch, if it looks too good to be true...
3. Less cautious retail investors aren't interested in making a few percent profit, however nailed on it looks. They're far to busy trying to multibag with HE1 and the likes.
4. Fear of a post-merger sell-off by ex-Arix holders. If this happens, it might be better to hold back cash to take advantage.
5. $/£ exchange rate risk, or just not wanting to hold $-denominated shares.
6. Some retail platforms may not support RTW shares. HL does. Fidelity will give partial support - it will let people hold the acquired RTW shares and sell them in due course, but not buy new ones. Those are the only two I know about.
7. Worry that the second vote won't achieve the required 75%. This seems unlikely given the 92.22% in the first vote. (It's amusing that in theory RTW could get cold feet and use their 25.5% to scupper the deal themselves! But they've RNS'd undertakings to vote in favour.)
I'm not really convinced by any of these, can someone else do better?! GLA
Started: SGD27, 6 Feb 2024 11:16
Last post: SGD27, 6 Feb 2024 21:15
Hi Dret, with respect I think you might have misunderstood. This isn't like a rights issue, where the SP adjusts on the ex-rights date. On completion, yes, there will be more RTW shares in existence, but the market cap should have grown by (roughly) the same factor, due to the addition of the Arix assets. If this wasn't the case then RTW shareholders could just sell their shares now and buy them back cheaper after completion.
Having said that, it's still a mystery why RTW holders aren't doing something very similar - selling and buying back cheaper via Arix shares!
There might be a sell-off in RTW following completion, as some Arix holders may not want to be RTW holders, but you'd think that would be anticipated and reflected in today's RTW SP. (Some might regard such a sell-off as a good buying opportunity.)
Anyway, just a week now till we see how it all pans out. GLA
Don't forget that the RTW share price will adjust on completion for the issue of the new shares to Arix holders
Today RTW(Bid) $1.385 x 1.4633 x 79.75p/$ = 161.6p ARIX
- still 13% above 143.1p (dummy sell of 10k shares), and I still can't understand why this apparent arbitrage remains!
Started: SGD27, 29 Jan 2024 09:49
Last post: Batterseafish, 30 Jan 2024 15:16
Perhaps the gap will close when the deal completes? I.e combined entity will trade down?
Any theories on why the gap between the current ARIX price and the RTW conversion price isn't closer ?
I know there's still some risk, and currency movements involved - but the size of the gap seems odd to me given it's only two weeks out now - almost a "too good to be true" opportunity.
Hi Oldnbald, did you miss yesterday's RNS?
The second vote, on 12th Feb, will require "at least 75 per cent. of the votes cast in respect of it", but after yesterday's 92.22% that isn't looking like a problem.
Today RTW(Bid) $1.37 x 1.4633 x 78.9p/$ = 158.2p ARIX
I am assuming that they do not need 51% of shares to approve - just 51% of shares who VOTE - and as there are many nominee held shares that probably wont vote it may be easier to pass
Clearly going ahead then.
Well well, just before close I did a dummy sell and was offered 143p for 10000 shares (I didn't accept). So we've finally achieved the 'indicative value' of Nov 1st. It looks like someone has embraced the arbitrage and is hoovering up.
Last post: skid35, 23 Jan 2024 13:41
Acacia have sold out below the share price, well below the share price they would have for the combined entity and well, well below NAV.
Its great when the little guys win.
Thanks for the reply .IW have sent just the comms from the Co thru and it is as clear as mud
Sorry, it was specific for HL account holders. I also have shares with Fidelity, but had no communication from them.
Hello
any chance you could post the mail on this board please? I've tried to find out how to vote but have so far failed. IWeb have my shares.
I've just had an email from Hargreaves Lansdown with instructions on how to vote online. There's a deadline of 7pm on Wednesday 24 January 2024.
Sgd, actually worked out quite well in the end.
Happy to have the rtw team managing money rather than the arix team and their Caribbean holidays.
Just to clarify, I mean the reduced payment to Acacia is good for us. More generally the exchange rate is not so for us as our future RTW shares will be worth less in pence. (Apologies if I'm stating the obvious.)
I had my vote request on ajbell last week.
Hah - because of movement in the $£ exchange rate Acacia have only been paid 137p per share by RTW - and as future RTW shareholders that's good for us!
Started: SGD27, 8 Jan 2024 15:09
Last post: skid35, 19 Jan 2024 20:20
Cheers sgd - of course.
What would make me laugh if the share price went above 1.43.
It's not totally irrelevant. If the Arix NAV increases then that will increase the NAV of the merged company, which will benefit us as future shareholders of that company.
Am I being thick here.
Any movement in either the SP or NAV is totally irrelevant with the share terms set?
Would be great to know how much Peregrine is getting paid for "loss of office" for doing a frankly poor job for shareholders (apart from the mates rates for some)
RTW on winterfloods IT recommendations for 24.
I wonder what this means to the RTW deal? Their SP had risen appreciably making me more inclined to vote yes, but now I'm not so sure. I wonder what Acacia are thinking about their cash deal?
Yes, incredible. Now equivalent to 159p on the bid price. Even after today's confirmatory RNS I must be missing something but will continue buying in my SIPP. Worst case scenario is the deal falls through but in the long term still trading at a huge discount to NAV and value will out in the end.
RTW(Bid) $1.32 x 1.4633 x 78.9p/$ = 152.4p ARIX
SGD. agree with oldnbald.
Compared to the rubbish on other boards its great seeing other people with insight and digging stuff up.
Great work, thank you! Please continue to share
FYI A quick scan of RTW's listed portfolio top 6: change from 1 month ago according to Google Finance:
RCKT +21.99%
IMCR +32.47%
CRGX +4.00%
MIST +12.05%
OBIO +22.11%
APGE +29.34%
SGD.
I did write to investor relations about 2-3 weeks ago asking why the directors were in favour of this deal, as I couldnt work it out.
Clearly "other incentives" for the board somewhere.
Here's the bit visible before the subscription barrier comes down:
"
BUSINESS COMMENTARY
Thorny case for Arix chief to answer
Alistair Osborne
Tuesday December 05 2023, 12.01am, The Times
Corporate deals throw up all sorts of governance questions. But here’s a simple one: should a chairman be more obviously independent before he recommends a transaction that discriminates against three quarters of the shareholders?
It’s the puzzler raised by the delightfully named Peregrine Moncreiffe of that Ilk, the mullet-coiffured Scottish clan leader atop the board of Arix Bioscience. A month ago, he recommended a deal that flouted a crucial tenet of UK corporate life: that all shareholders must be treated equally. Moncreiffe endorsed the sale of all the group’s assets to a rival life sciences investment company, RTW Biotech, saying the transaction was the “best outcome for Arix shareholders”.
Well, maybe for one of them. Under the terms, RTW is buying out Arix’s biggest shareholder
"
And another :
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thorny-case-for-arix-chief-to-answer-p7xgbm6zs
(And again ohisay on advfn has provided an extract for the unsubscribed.)
Another article today, again spotted by ohisay on advfn:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/arix-bioscience-boards-caribbean-meeting-left-shareholders-flabbergasted-gnxn539zp
"
Arix’s Caribbean meeting left shareholders ‘flabbergasted’
Alistair Osborne
Monday November 20 2023, 12.01am, The Times
An Arix Bioscience board meeting was arranged at a luxury hotel only a few miles from the holiday island of St Vincent
The under-fire chairman of Arix Bioscience held a board meeting in the Caribbean, despite the investment company having no business interests in the region.
Peregrine Moncreiffe — whose contentious deal to sell the life sciences specialist’s assets to RTW Biotech, a rival, triggered the immediate resignation of Peel Hunt as Arix’s joint-broker — chaired a board meeting on the island of Bequia. The outpost, covering only seven square miles and located nine miles from St Vincent, has been dubbed “the Caribbean’s best-kept secret” by Forbes magazine.
Held in February last year, the meeting took place at the luxury Bequia Beach Hotel, a five-star resort where beachfront suites cost $620 a night. The hotel’s publicity speaks of a resort set in “ten acres of beautifully landscaped
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The Flash Sale.
£1 for 4 months.
Ends soon.
"
More cut&paste on advfn...
Another article in The Times today:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/broker-quits-arix-over-rtw-takeover-875dkcms5
Again ohisay on advfn has cut& pasted. Here's the first part:
"
Broker quits Arix over RTW takeover
Alistair Osborne
Saturday November 11 2023, 12.01am, The Times
Peel Hunt, which has its HQ at 100 Liverpool Street in London, believes the Arix deal is unfair
PEEL HUNT
One of Arix Bioscience’s joint-brokers quit on the morning it announced a contentious takeover deal in protest at its inequitable treatment of shareholders.
Peel Hunt demanded that its name and that of its two healthcare bankers be taken off the release for the sale of the company’s assets to the rival life sciences investment company RTW Biotech.
It resigned with immediate effect hours later.
The investment bank, which had been brought into the deal late in the process, is understood to have told Arix that it could not sanction a deal that discriminated against three quarters of its shareholders to provide a cash exit on better terms to its 25.5 per cent activist investor Acacia Research.
Under the deal, unveiled at the start of this
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"
Started: SGD27, 14 Nov 2023 11:56
Last post: skid35, 14 Nov 2023 13:38
McNulty in Acacia seems like a right ****** by the way
SGD - thanks for this - Is there anyone we can write to in the FCA at this grubby little transaction ?
I wrote to investor relations over the weekend but have yet to have a response.
I did take a long look at the annual report to look at the directors remuneration to see the personal gain they would get at the expense of shareholders, as they are not acting as directors should. The terms of share options are a little murky.
It was interesting to see the notes on bonus, basically we'll ignore the terms of the performance bonus and pay the CEO double it anyway.
Https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-acacia-research-posts-q3-results-acquires-stake-in-benchmark-energy-and-announces-share-repurchase-program-93CH-3236714
"
Anthony Stoss: Got it. By the way, congrats on the Arix deal. That's wonderful for Acacia. One of the shareholders, it looks like, in Arix is kind of disputing the fact that you guys are getting cash, and others are getting stock. I'm curious if you can share your thoughts on that.
MJ McNulty: Yes. I mean we saw that news, too. I think they're a small broker that shouldn't take away from the value of their opinion. We are getting cash, and other shareholders are getting gig stock. Other shareholders have a say in the way that the deal ultimately happens. We did have a sizable position, and so we got a premium in terms of the consideration being cash instead of stock because of that position.
...
Brett Reiss: Okay. On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being metaphysical certainty, what would you -- the Arix deal closing, what do you think it is, a 7, 8, 9?
MJ McNulty: I love it, Brett, when you ask me to put things on a scale. What I will tell you is that there is one condition to the closing of our, Acacia's Arix shares to RTW. And that is approval from the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom for the transaction. I will say that the entity within Arix that triggered this approval requirement is currently FCA-approved or certified as is RTW. So I don't want to handicap it, but we're being advised that this is a routine approval process by the FCA. Now it's -- there are things that are out of our control, but that's what we're being advised.
"
Last post: skid35, 11 Nov 2023 08:12
Another times article this morning about peel hunt quitting in disgust, surely they understood the deal of they put their name to it?
Surely this is an rns?
Here's the first part:
"
BUSINESS COMMENTARY
Don’t swallow dog’s breakfast deal at Arix Bioscience
Alistair Osborne
Friday November 10 2023, 12.01am, The Times
Four years on and Neil Woodford’s portfolio is still coming back to bite. The latest case in point? Arix Bioscience, once a darling of the fallen stockpicker but one now trying to pull off a deal every bit as unhinged as some of his.
On November 1, Arix agreed to sell its assets to RTW Biotech, another UK-listed life sciences investment company, via what is mainly an all-share deal. It was billed by Arix chairman Peregrine Moncreiffe as a transaction with “clear strategic and financial logic” set to provide a “meaningful long-term growth opportunity”. On the day of the deal, Arix shares opened at 130p. Thursday night’s price? Just 113p.
It’s not hard to see why. If the deal had been structured as the acquisition
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"
Thanks skid35, pretty scathing isn't it!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-swallow-dogs-breakfast-deal-at-arix-bioscience-b9r0x2g5n
(For non-subscribers, ohisay on the adfvn discussion board has done a cut&paste.)
Write up in the times completely trashing the deal and the arix board.
The more time that goes on the more apparent what a clanger this deal is. Following RTW it's strikingly illiquid, even fewer daily trades than this. If/when the buyout happens and people inevitably want to exit it's not going to be easy without cratering the price.
It has been quite some achievement since the offer announcement for the value of both funds to noticeably decrease. Normally in a takeover at least one party perceived as getting the better deal will get a boost, but here they've managed to significantly reduce value of both. Well done board.
Good shout Batterseafish, will do likewise. If they were allowed to proceed they'd also become majority shareholders before the vote, enabling them to steamroller a yes vote through, which seems like a straightforward stitch up.
Meanwhile with any luck a significant enough shareholder on the register clock board's plan for what it is and speak up against it pretty sharpish. Market reaction speaks volumes.
Started: SGD27, 4 Nov 2023 15:17
Last post: SGD27, 4 Nov 2023 15:17
Https://www.stockopedia.com/content/investment-trusts-some-thoughts-979216/
"I am just about over the terrible deal the board of Arix Bioscience (LON:ARIX) did with RTW Biotech Opportunities (LON:RTW) . Shareholders were not given a great deal- one shareholder got cash and all because it was an asset sale not a takeover. To be fair despite being less than happy about the outcome of the strategic review I see the Chairman of Arix has been buying shares- 100,000 over the last couple of days. If you want to invest in Biotech, buying Arix is a cheap way in to RTW Bio. And I read corporate broker Peel Hunt has stated the deal is not great for Arix shareholders maybe there could be ...
Lesson is beware an activist fund who bought from a distressed seller and was not really interested in biotech."
Started: Steeltrader9, 3 Nov 2023 12:17
Last post: Steeltrader9, 3 Nov 2023 12:17
I just spoke with someone from the takeover panel.
The explained to me that the transaction is a purchase of assets and not shares, so it is not protected or covered in the same way as a takeover of the business. I asked them if anyone does and they said that sort of transaction is not governed and comes down to shareholders.
Basically RTW & the Arix board have shafted us and found a loophole as I thought they probably had.
All we can do is emphasise what a bad deal this is and vote it down when it comes to it.
Downgrade from 172p to 115p, and it's worth reading this :
https://www.theaic.co.uk/aic/news/citywire-news/peel-hunt-downgrades-arix-after-rtws-opportunist-acquisition-proposal
Started: SGD27, 10 Oct 2023 08:49
Last post: SGD27, 10 Oct 2023 08:49
Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-costly-reading/
"As readers know I am addicted to asset situations, particularly tangible assets. One that popped up last week was Arix Bioscience (ARIX), now 120p to buy. There is an astonishing 90p a share in cash with the rest made up of listed and unlisted investments worth, seemingly, 90p+ a share. Further, the directors have declared that they will do something about this absurd state of affairs. I would take them at their word and squirrel a few away."
Started: SGD27, 27 Sep 2023 13:10
Last post: Batterseafish, 4 Oct 2023 14:19
Or simply paying out some of the cash
Could be in specie distribution to shareholders
Hi DrPatience,
Watching the video, I didn't think the wind-down option was a foregone conclusion. But assuming it happens, I think you'd also have to allow some discount on the listed portfolio. It will be interesting to see what happens to those SPs on the day a wind-down decision is made. So I'm guessing 150p as a round number.
If that does happen then one possible strategy I have in mind would be to use some of the wind-down proceeds to buy the now artificially deflated shares in those companies!
Thanks SGD27, will watch with interest.
Just applying the RNS figures: cash+listed shares worth around 130p per share. Assume fire sale of unlisted shares at 50% of value (pretty conservative) then cash + listed shares + 50% of unlisted sharees => 156p per share.
They should just get on with it then. Easy trading opp for small investors with cash due to price misalignment. Very nice. Main risk is them not throwing the towel in the ring. Hopefully they do, they had their chance and failed. Simple.
The video of the presentation, including Q&A, is here :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uiep29cj9_8
Started: SGD27, 27 Sep 2023 16:25
Last post: DrPatience, 28 Sep 2023 08:37
Concluding remark: biotech has been depressed for a while...which for a company with so much cash would have a brilliant opp to buy for the future. What a wasted opportunity.
Meant VC not PE, sorry..
Invested at IPO and topped up during covid, but what a disappointment overall. Return of capital now makes sense, since the private equity model could not be pulled off by various lots of C execs. Wind up worth a great deal more than current sp, so appreciate why people are buying in. Should be easy money...
Started: SGD27, 27 Sep 2023 11:02
Last post: SGD27, 27 Sep 2023 11:02
R Lyne is stepping down "to pursue a new opportunity". This is it:
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/PureTech+Health+%28PRTC%29+Appoints+Robert+Lyne+as+Chief+Portfolio+Officer/22203091.html
Started: Mister_Short, 13 Jul 2023 13:55
Last post: Agricore, 22 Jul 2023 20:57
Gallmat,
Does he though? How much analysis have you read from ST beyond what's already been written by a broker beforehand? Arix (ironically) is one exception to this. And Kromek is another (dear to Skid35 if I remember rightly). But let's say 90%-95% of ST's tips are already covered by Cenkos/CG/Finncap/WHI and fair play he does condense it into a format suitable for less sophisticated PIs, but there's quite a bit of regurgitation, after the fact.
If you ever listen to him on a podcast he talks a very good game and I've read both his books and they are both a very good read and useful, to be fair. And also to give credit where it's due he's managed to pick Bargains of the Year which by year end each year have in aggregate returned good returns (Arix being a laggard from the 2022 stable and 2023 stable too I think)
When I realised I was paying for regurgitation I stopped paying for IC, and instead pay for Research Tree and get updates straight from the horses' mouths instead.
GLA
I think he generates initial good ideas.
However he has a tendency to give the companys benefit of the doubt too much. And not be timely enough on market sentiment.
E.g rates rising. Dunp reits mate (nothing)
Another ST write up in investors chronicle. Not a fan of ST, like a bloke on the horses constantly reminds you of his winners and forgets his losers, with some deeply suspect picks.
Hard to ubderstand what this is about if not looking to sell it.
If they want to invest. They have the mandate. If they want to buy back. Have the mandate
They have been sat on their hands taking a nice salary and the share price has flatlined. I know the market has been tough, however they need to find a way forward to either exit and return money or add growth to Arix
Started: SGD27, 3 May 2023 09:25
Last post: Batterseafish, 14 Jul 2023 17:34
Presumably full liquidation and distribution on the cards..........£1.70 at least awaiting us. Many director purchases perhaps suggest this outcome.
I think they need to internaly discuss what they are doing :)
At a 50pct discount buying your own shares is a no brainer.! Not sure whey they have not!
Referring to the 2022 annual report I think they already know what they need to do.
https://ether-assets.ams3.digitaloceanspaces.com/arix/1.-Arix-Bioscience-Annual-Report-2022_Web-Optimized.pdf
Page 3 - Goals - Achieve Double Digit NAV per share growth on a rolling 36 month basis.
But how?
Page 6/7 - Chairman's statement - buy backs of >10%, and a strategy of casting the net wider to get more shots on goal plus participate more actively in listed markets stakes in companies with attractive M&A potential in the near term.
That all makes sense to me.
But have the investment team delivered against the Chairman's vision?
Surprised they haven't found opportunities in the sector, with as you say, some bombed out stocks.
At least they are now getting a return on their cash pile.
I do hope they continue, if they return cash I don't think the size of the trust is large enough.
Comparing the Dec 22 portfolio to the June 23 portfolio the listed component has grown from £45.2m to £71.2m.
A 57% gross rise - although portfolio realisations/investments need to be considered. Only one I can see is Harpoon 28/3 RNS for $3.5m.... so a 48% rise YTD then. IMPRESSIVE! Works out at 17p/share.... which tallies to the just under 18p SGD27 calculated.
This is for LISTED investments. Listed means we could have bought more of them easily. And didn't.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing you might say - but where's the conviction? That's what we're paying for surely?
Interesting today to see Bellevue comment that they are mulling launch of a private company healthcare trust. Can t see this getting off the ground with current discounts and climate.