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Hi just the facts.
I enjoyed your post and agree that in almost any other share fundamentals analysis should form a decent part of the basis of any investment decision.
However ARB will always be underpinned by whatever is happening the particular market value is of crypto at the time so fundamentals don’t hold as much weight. Like commodities the value of the company is always going to be reliant on the crypto valuation at any given time.
To reiterate, Argo is more than just a BTC mining company. Who knows how it will evolve, but it will survive, thrive and be great, that’s is why I invested. Veni, vidi, vici!
Need we say more Mittenator. Continued subtle de-ramping!
Xenor,
“I'm going to stop being negative on this board from this point forward - and feel free to call me out on it if I go back on my word. I agree my negativity isn't helping sentiment.”
Your words. Just saying.
Good points to both of you. I think I am too focused on bitcoin because that's what affects the share price the most. Seeing lots of people move money from bitcoin to alt coins and the worries about energy usage have convinced me this bull run might be coming to a premature end. ARB being green isn't going to help if people are moving away from bitcoin in general.
Please excuse my typos in my previous posts, I was out on my phone and fat fingers do not help.
We have enough to put up with on here with all the nonsensical de-rampers, but I know one thing they won’t alter my opinion of the lovely Argo.
As like others, I am in the red and well underwater. However, I do not put my hard earned money on the line at a whim. My conviction for Argo remains extremely strong.At first I felt very nervous with the daily volatility, although I now choose to ignore it, focus forward and envisage Argo, along with the SP, further down the road in a more stable and established place.
We have to remind ourselves that Argo is a relatively new growth company, which is still evolving and growing. We have a fantastic team behind it, with light on his toes PW at the helm, all the recent fantastic RNS and who knows what great developments next! Excuse the cliched maxim, but Rome was not built in a day. Argo have stated clearly diversification is part or their long-term smart growth strategy and have strategically prepared for a variety of scenarios. Remember, Argo is a DeFi company and much more than just about BTC.
Let’s give this a really good chance, keep united and remain positive about our investment and Argo.
Very best wishes.
I wasn't expecting a quick profit, but I wasn't expecting a quick loss either. I mean people don't buy shares with the intention of seeing them plummet afterwards. It looked good on paper. Rising bitcoin (until recently), Pluto, NASDAQ, Texas. It's hard to see where it's going wrong. I reasonably expected to make a profit at some point this year, I wouldn't risk it otherwise.
But yeah, negativity affects sentiment so let's dream of rainbows and pots of gold instead. Maybe more people will want to buy shares then. Even the best stocks don't rise if people don't buy them. Seeing that in other stocks I'm invested in as well. Undervalued, low volume, more sellers than buyers.
whether you have one share or a million in a company, you are entitled to your view and opinion regardless.
if we all thought the same then ARB price would either be on the moon or worth nothing, so for me good debate in either direction doesn't hurt.
@Xenor, even though our views on ARB differ i none the less appreciate your post as a genuine investor.
thanks and good luck .
Or you have oldies like me who believe in btc and the companies fundamentals who have averaged up and believe that xenor will see profit in the median term. I will check in Monday now and see if my Nasdaq prediction was right.
Pearls is back - Have you only just recovered from the riveting price and share movement of your holdings yesterday ? Normally People would pay to watch such thrilling action, In the same way I’d pay to watch cricket during a monsoon.
@Xenor - one of the (many) good things about ARB is that doesn't need BTC to go any sort of run to make decent profits, let alone get anywhere near the dizzy heights of $300,000.
At current BTC levels it is making a mining margin of nearly £6m per month and this is still £4m-£5m after allowing for all the other costs that I'm aware of. If right this gives ,even with no BTC increases, a PE ratio that is already well under 20. And that's before the improved mining capacity that kicks in very shortly. Of course what the 'right' PE is for ARB is a matter of opinion and whether the SP actually moves to give that PE ratio is even more questionable given the way the share price has been buffeted lately.
So the one thing I am confident about is the profitability - just hope the SP catches up with it sooner rather than later.
A few typos on my part to but I hope you got the message! All the best and I'm sure you'll get your 190 exit price eventually!
I hope you got the message the predictive text is making me seem illiterate!
On the whole I feel a similar way to you Xenor but I don't see what benefit it is to you, to Argo, to anyone to keep airing these views. These long posts of yours are quite self-indulgent and seem more of a personal airing but they start to get a bit tedious!
Of cause Pearls! Neither of us know what is going to happen, but if I was invested unlike you, I would keep stump about what I felt if it was a feeling and not daya ecause I wouldn't want to affect sentiment. Havw you invested in Bitstamp yet?
I think Xenor has sold already at a loss and would hate to see it rise.
Speel, Xenor is allowed to disagree.....or isn’t he?
@xenor, this post isn't helpful and is not going to help sentiment. I appreciate that you have lost faith, but other than that disagree with most of what you have said. I still believe the bull run will resume as soon as btc surpasses 53300, by that time however you could have moved on.
I don't have the time to respond to all. When i invested I had every faith in ARB and where it was heading. But I believe my calculations were wrong. I too thought bitcoin could reach 300k this year based on the hype, and that a 20 PE ratio for ARB was right. I don't believe that any more. I lost faith when people went from spamming the board with "hodl for godl" to day trading it. Not really a hodl is it? If people were holding then it wouldn't be a volatile stock. I expected it to follow bitcoin's ups and downs somewhat, and give some exposure to crypto. That was a mistake and I should have invested in crypto directly. Getting spiked was a mistake, I should have waited for it to come back down to earth. I got sucked in during the placing and bought some for 200p. Then averaged up afterwards. Another mistake. Sentiment changed after that placing. I'm probably the only person who bought shares in that placing and sold them for a loss.
Also regarding the comment on RMM. Someone asked the resident troll about how their ARB investment is going as ARB is their biggest holding. So I mentioned my misfortune here. I figure if he's deramping a falling share there then why not here.
I'm going to stop being negative on this board from this point forward - and feel free to call me out on it if I go back on my word. I agree my negativity isn't helping sentiment. I want ARB to succeed and I want to sell the majority of my shares without losing too much. If we see 190-200p again I'm reducing. This stock is too volatile/traded for my liking but I'd like to leave a bit in to recover losses if it spikes high again.
Xenor, the feeling I’m getting from you posts is that you have no confidence at in with your investment in Argo. Your constant negative posts do not, or will not, help Argo in the slightest. It makes me revisit the question again, why on earth did you invest in a volatile growth stock such as this? If you have no faith in the long term in what you invest in then you should either not have invest in the first instance, or get completely out.
Xenor
Posted in: RMM
Posts: 417
Price: 0.37
No Opinion
RE: Looking Painful For the Spiked!!13 May 2021 11:31
I wonder why he is not deramping on ARB. I got spiked there with a high average of 223p and don't see it getting back to those levels for a long time. Biggest mistake I've made since I started investing. Would love to pull it all out and top up here but the losses are too much. I'm down more in £ value on RMM however but I'm not worried at all about this investment.
@Xenor - “ When I bought in around 230p I thought we had consolidated there because the share price was moving up and down with bitcoin. ”
It’s worth keeping in mind that the SP was not following BTC when it was at 230. It was tracking BTC up to about SP 143-188 (13-14 February) then it shot up much faster than BTC. Then it came down much faster than BTC. I’ve no doubt it’s lower than it should be now and little doubt you’ll see 230 again this year but if it had simply tracked BTC it would probably be somewhere in the 170-190 at the moment. Hopefully it will become less volatile as the business grows.
Agree Just_the_facts. Diversification is part of Argo’s growth strategy and BTC is not just in their sights. We have to remain upbeat with our investment in Argo, if not then what’s the point in investing in the company. There is so some much more to come from Argo and with a positive mindset from the investors I sure it will help us to get there.
As Buffett once said never buy a share unless you intend to keep it for 10 yrs,I think Arb falls into this category I wonder how many will do so
Hi Xenor
with regard to consolidation and how low the price can go, i don't know and suspect nobody does but that's the whole point, that different people will have different views and calculations. when these differing views start to consolidate on mass is when sentiment changes direction.
Based on the turmoil this week and the lows from Thursday, i had ARB pegged at a forward looking PE of 5 (based on April results), on the same basis i had MARA at 5 and Riot at 7. The technicals all point to oversold and the miners gained ground on Friday so maybe the bottom is in but who can say for sure.
to be invested in ARB though, if you want to have any reassurance of the potential then you also have to understand BTC and crypto in general, in terms of the whole reason for its existence, crypto/blockchain is changing the global economy and it is only in its infancy stages imho, and as a result of this it obviously has its haters. It is hugely volatile and not for the faint hearted, so if your are used to blue chip stocks with regular dividends and yields of 5, 6, 7% then this is probably not for you.
To understand what MAY happen in this bull run, then take a real close look at the previous main 2 from 2017 and 2013, because if this one follows suit then the high could circa £300k or above and the subsequent drop off to $75k levels, granted that this run might be somewhat less intensive than previous due to current size and mcap of BTC, but again, who knows??
For me personally, i spend a lot of time working on the company fundamentals of projected growth and that is the basis of my investment, i also fundamentally believe in the growth of BTC and crypto so obviously my view is positive for both.
at the moment, ARB is mostly reliant on BTC mining and whilst it would seem that this will remain a significant part of the operation, we can see that diversification is also happening with what the operational use of Texas might be which i am sure will be revealed in the not to distant future.
At the end of the day, you have to decide on your investments in your considered view and make your choices based on that alone, for me I'm in ARB for along time to come, i don't loose sleep over the daily price because what i invested doesn't impact on my daily life and is an accepted risk / reward scenario for which i decided the reward potential far outweighed the risk.
whatever direction you take with this investment i hope it has no regrets for you.
So good luck whichever way you choose, and if you decide to stay invested then strap in cos this ride hasn't even started yet imo :)
ATB
@Just_the_facts That's a fair comment but just where are we going to consolidate at? When I bought in around 230p I thought we had consolidated there because the share price was moving up and down with bitcoin. Are we going to consolidate around 150p or go below 100p? You can't time the market. The share needed people buying in after the FOMO otherwise it would only have sellers and plummet. If the price was moving on fundamentals as opposed to day traders, sentiment and Elon Musk I'd be happier.
Bitcoin will fall off a cliff after this year when the bull market ends so expecting to wait until 2022 to profit isn't a reasonable expectation. It all depends on where the floor for bitcoin is after this cycle. Last cycle it fells from 19k to 3k. If it drops to 1/6 again we could be looking at 17k bitcoin if it peaks at 100k. Still profitable for ARB but a lot lower than it is today and I would expect a share price much lower than today if that happens. I know some have predicted a 300k peak but I don't see that as realistic. That's my worry about thinking longterm with this.