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OP - I think that being realistic with this share is important.
- some of us have been for what seems like a very long time now.
There's plenty to be positive about but until DeFi etc. evolve further and uptake is more, then ARB is highly dependant to BTC.
This is 90+% retail owned. The institutions who have bought in are now likely to be all underwater. Saylor holding BTC for me is a red flag, just Google Michael Saylor dot com bubble. - why would Saylor holding matter? it is not about who holds, its about BTC.
If we do get a short lived pump in BTC to say $50k then this will be an opportunity to get out of here as BTC looks to be heading south in the coming months. I do think though that based upon recent share price action from the $69k high this opportunity has passed. - i take it you are saying is if BTC pumps argo will not follow?
ARB should be OK though as they're trading and developing strategies as part of their diversification and even with BTC below $10k they're profitable - if btc hits $10k what would their profit be? very little if any, and i agree with hexam post. As they dont return value to shareholders the the real question is what would the share price be. i think you are trying to say argo would survive a crypto winter - they might, but the share price wont.
I do think they'll ride the coming storm and come out well positioned. Although they have appeared disorganised over the last 18 months they have learned by their mistakes and are becoming stronger. - heres hoping, but wont hold my breath.
I should have said at $10k rather than under and perhaps break even as the profit at that level would be minimal. I can't see BTC hitting $10k either but can see it low 20's high teens especially if we get another black swan event (perhaps the financial fallout from fiscal measures taken during Covid). We'll see. I'm completely on the sidelines atm waiting for a clearer (perhaps not cheaper) entry point here. I got kicked on this board recently when I suggested 36p as a base but the maths is there if you look. One last thing for me is that ARB I think played a blinder in 2021 with where the prices they managed to raise cash. Hopefully the 3.8Eh will materialise this year perhaps with additional debt rather than a low priced placement but even if it doesn't the foundations are there.
Why do so many people seem sure BTC is heading lower? The fundamentals only grow stronger and net flow is off exchanges. Miners are NOT selling. Do people still not understand how BTC works? We hit $20k back in 2017 with just Retail and pure speculation. A whole digitised ecosystem is being built right in front of our faces and BTC underwrites it all. If there is another black swan (and I do not class Governments ongoing destruction of SME's through POLICY, burdening the plebs and future generations with insurmountable debt in that bracket) BTC was the first to bounce and it bounced hard. It also looks like the wheels are falling off this *situation* as almost in perfect unison governments globally are downgrading this *thing* to endemic and / or removing all restrictions. The 'health passport' (i.e. papers) seems to be no longer in vogue either so I only assume these scum bags are front running some sort of news or big announcement because this speed of this recent U-turn is nothing short of extraordinary. Looks like panic to me.
"I should have said at $10k"
Or maybe $15k as I'm not aware of any miner who would still be making profits if BTC were to be this low - although some would be close, including argo.
As you say though, highly unlikely to fall this low anyway. Bigger question for argo is their growth plans and how they will be funded. Unless BTC makes a big move it's hard to see the sp moving very much until they either reveal more about what these plans are or when they start delivering on the plans they already have (e.g. getting the benefits from immersion and other progress on mining in Texas beyond just the building).
Why do so many people seem sure BTC is heading lower?
It's still linked with wider markets whether you agree or not so the market psychology still applies regardless of the back story. This is one of, if not THE most volatile and risky asset class and therefore the first to dump. I'm in the 'dotcom' comparison camp at the moment and only follow ARB for what I think is a miner or blockchain company with great potential in coming years.
Eyes down (again) peeps.