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https://www.facebook.com/reel/7202559916485324?fs=e&s=cl
Bitcoin 2031
Wayne: everybody has an opinion on the BTC price, just like everybody has an ***hole, as the saying goes.....
Complete load of bolloc** - whilst absolutely anything is possible predictions imply a base case, if his base case is north of $12.5m a bitcoin in just 9 years then he's an idiot - $12.5m in 2031 so say ~20.3m bitcoin in circulation gives a market cap of approximately $255T. Bitcoin absolutely buckled under the pressure of a $1T market cap, eating up most of the world's wealth is near on impossible.
I'm not sure the percentage of people who *really* believe in bitcoin has changed much in the past few years, if anything it might be declining. For bitcoin to reach even a tenth of that prediction there needs to be such a radical change in thinking in all of the people in the world that really matter, not poverty stricken El Salvadorians and Africans.
Ridiculous prediction.
I didnt click the link as i dont have facebook but ive seen 12.5m 2031 with robert breedlove. not saying i agree with this but it's obvious you're looking at what 12million dollars is worth today, and not what it will be worth in 9 years.
12 million will be around 1million in todays money, i hear, so always remember to adjust for inflation on longer time frames!
"12 million will be around 1million in todays money, i hear,"
That's an annual inflation rate of over 30% - for 9 years. I know things are bad, but they're not that bad.
This kind of prediction (i.e. $12.5m per BTC in 2031) doesn't help BTC's credibility at all but just leaves it open to ridicule. Luckily I don't think much notice will be paid to it beyond a few headlines.
We are highly unlikely to see anything like that. Perhaps two to three years of runaway inflation which will give the inflation bros reason to believe they've called it right from the very start (except they are the types that will call it every year til they die whatever the reality is).
first they ignore you, then they ridicule you.....
Does anyone think, that after the "events" of the past 8 weeks, that a sane investor would take this (current Pluto sales-pitch) seriously...? shaking my head....:
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"12 million will be around 1million in todays money, i hear,"
That's an annual inflation rate of over 30% - for 9 years. I know things are bad, but they're not that bad.
This kind of prediction (i.e. $12.5m per BTC in 2031) doesn't help BTC's credibility at all but just leaves it open to ridicule.
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How much has bitcoin gone up since its inception?
I think eventually BTC will match the market cap of gold. I’m not convinced that happens anytime soon though.
This really isn't the point. Those that took the risk to hold bitcoin in its infancy were rewarded, they probably also held loads of other nascent investments which went to nothing. A few small caps rise 10000% from an mcap of £20m to £2b over 10, 15 years, very few then go on to rise another 10000% to £200b.
Again I'm not ruling it out but I'm saying that the signs aren't all that good at the moment and I've been consistent with my views. Back in early 2021 I saw a slim but very real chance of bitcoin adoption accelerating, of institutions following Elon Musk and Tesla in a race to accumulate, but it didn't materialise. The faces promoting bitcoin are all the same faces that were promoting it a few years ago bar the odd new one and actually some of them appear to have grown weary and have moved their attention elsewhere. Personally I know of nobody in the past year to start investing in bitcoin whilst I know a few bitcoin obsessives who have lost faith and are moving some of their money to the stock market / alternatives.
Bitcoin has been ruled out as a realistic currency, it is no longer going to be seen as a hedge against inflation, what it has left to win is the digital store of value and whilst that is still possible time is running out - if adoption is seen to be slowing / active users declining then its chance to go parabolic again will be gone.
"How much has bitcoin gone up since its inception?"
Charts tell the past, not the future. Key point though is the one HarChris made earlier. It's one thing to go from next to nothing to where it is today (a huge percentage because it started at next to nothing) than to to go from where it is now to what that joker predicts.
It's the same flawed logic that is applied to ARB's sp (or any company that started off with a tiny mcap). The first step is hard, the next step is much, much harder.
Sorry but 1 dollar to 20,000 dollars is not flawed logic. It is a fact. Look at house prices as an example. They dont stop getting more and more expensive because they went from 10k, to 100k. They then go to 1million and 10million.
M2 money supply and the fact that the US will not default on their debt is also a fact. It's 1971 and your're arguing that an apple will always cost 25p per kg but it wont. It now costs 234p per kg.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/czmy/mm23
How much do you think 12 million will actually be worth in today's money? All im pointing out in my original post is that the chap didnt adjust for inflation, which actually quite a silly thing to ignore.
Note: there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, something else which should not be ignored when factoring in these sorts of things!
Hexam and I both understand the concept of adjusting for inflation. $12.5m *is* a ridiculous prediction for the bitcoin price in 2030 and it almost certainly won't be equivalent to $1m in today's money, most likely more $6m in today's money.
To stay as wealthy as you were you do need your assets to rise faster than inflation but that has historically been the case through owning physical property and main market stocks.
The flaw in the logic is not going from 1 to 20,000. That is indeed a fact. It is the suggestion that because it did, this suggests that it can go up astronomically form 20,000 to $12.5m (or if inflation is, say, 5% on average for the next 9 years) around $8m in today's money.
And I have no idea how you deduced from what I said that I am arguing that apples will always stay the same price. They will continue to go up in price like most nearly everything else.
My point is simply that rises in apples, houses or whatever will continue as they are sustainable but the sort of rises suggested on that facebook post are not sustainable no matter what it has done in the past or what the macro environment is. Of course I could be wrong but whilst I'm not willing to bet my house on it I would be prepared to bet an awful lot of apples.
I dont think it would get to that amount but people have done the maths to back it up at the very least.
I disagree with you that you can compare a company's float to a fixed supply asset. That to me is definitely flawed logic
That rise in price of apples by the way is not because it got harder to obtain apples. That is purely inflation. You dont want to know what the price of apples would be in 2031 if there were only ever going to be 21million of them!
"people have done the maths to back it up at the very least"
I doubt it. These projections have little to do with maths and more to do with crazy assumptions.
"You dont want to know what the price of apples would be in 2031 if there were only ever going to be 21million of them!"
So why does this mean BTC will go up so much in value? Nearly all the BTC have already been mined. The supply side in BTC is not the really the coins being mined it is the coins that have already be mined and the willingness to sale them. And plenty of these are being sold by miners at the moment for example. Overall supply over the last year has been outstripping demand - hence the drop in price. Will the same be true in the next year or the following eight? Who knows.
Apples are different as they are all consumed so the supply begins again and is the annual production (or the 'mining') and if that goes down but the demand stays the same then the price will go up by more than inflation.
So I would argue the supply side is in fact similar for apples and BTC, just one is driven by apples actually grown each year but BTC is driven by the number already mined and the willingness to part with them.
Well here is a video titled "the math behind 12.5 million bitcoin by 2031" from 8 months ago
https://youtu.be/pGUgkoa1EP4
If you go to 11:43 onwards thats the guy who i assume the Facebook book post is about! (Rob breedlove)
Have a good night!
Phew, good night!
Was wondering what all this has to do with the price of apples
Fruit loop ;)
As I said not maths just built on assumption layered upon assumption with a healthy dollop of post revolution France thrown in.
Haha FP - Maybe I’ve been in the wrong investment this whole time. Are Strongbow or Thatchers listed?
The maths is there. Dont be so reductionist to now not even allow for a base layer of mathematical assumptions in order to reach a projected figure.
Do we really have to go to "well, youre assuming its NOT going to be 30 percent a year, therefore you are wrong too" - thats crass and pointless. How else are you going to make a projection with out assumptions of future inflation? Use the past? Nope, cant do that according to you. So we just simply dont know? Ok. We all dont know then, lol
I’m tired of this but one example:
He makes an assumption that currencies will collapse into the dollar AND BTC. Pure supposition, no maths. Plenty of other examples. You can make the maths produce any number you like depending on the assumptions you use. It’s all down to how ‘good’ the assumptions are.
BC come on, we obviously give Breedlove enough credit as to have come up with some form of calculation to arrive at $12.5m if he's going to be shilling it across numerous platforms, which he did last year. It's not about being wrong, nobody knows for certain what the price of bitcoin is going to be in 2031, it's that it's so obviously so far out there as to be quite a ridiculous 'prediction'.
He's really gone more or less for the highest it's hypothetically possible to be.