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A strange TU with so little to go on there has to be a reason. They just can't be a*s*d with the market and only one reason for that attitude I can think of is they intend to come off market.
An offer based on the average closing price of the last 36 sessions or something?
DBAY?
Rivaldo,
Corresponding statement from full year 2021 trading update 12 months ago
"The Board is pleased to announce that revenue growth has exceeded the Group's forecasts and that profit before tax will be significantly ahead of market expectations." Incidentally, the catalyst for my investment here.
Not, simply, "in line with expectations " as of this morning.
Given that we were so far in front of 2021 at the 2022 half year (EPs 9.3p v 6.1p, + 52.5%) and that full year eps 2021 were 16.8p, this indicates ANX trading below 2021 for 2022. Not "nicely" in my book.
Also no mention whatsoever of housing disrepairs or vehicle emissions, the two big growth opportunity areas that, hopefully, were to push profits further ahead moving forwards and are the reason many are invested here.
Having just come out of Immo where a paucity of information was due to a subsequent PE/management buyout I wonder if its the same here? The TU was 1-2weeks later than usual and hilst anx's past TU have not been verbose they had a little more information
Glad to see confirmation that trading for 2022 was nicely in line with expectations.
That equates to consensus 18.5p EPS - a historic P/E of just 6.2.
Probably the least informative trading update I've come across. PR dept need a rocket up their .... Can only expect this to drift for another 8 weeks. Disappointing.
Also onboard, there is a lot to be said for companies where the directors are major holders.
Yep - obvious forthcoming favourable outcome for Anexo being missed by the market. This share is so so so undervalued
Encouraging to see that at the end of 2022 in Scotland VW paid £11.9m in relation to 7,800 claimants, i.e £1,525 per case.
Hopefully ANX's case against VW will also come to a conclusion soon:
Https://joneswhyte.co.uk/media-centre/blog/__trashed/
"In Volkswagen’s view, the legal costs of litigating this case to trial in Scotland, and then in relation to any further appeals by either party, were such that settlement was the most prudent course of action commercially.
The agreed settlement resolves circa 7,800 claims that were being brought against various Volkswagen Group entities in that group action in Scotland. These claims were brought on behalf of consumers by the law firms Thompsons Scotland, Slater & Gordon,?Lefevres, Drummond Miller, and Jones Whyte. "
Hey Trendz.
Yes I liked the holdings too. I also liked the p/e ratio, the growth over the last few years and the fact they could see some bumper wins from the likes of VW claims.
This may go to 100 again but I will buy that. Its far to low. I have also just read the company was in IC for possible take over target. Lots of possibilities here.
Suspect *
I’m also on board, suspend the exec directors (with monster holdings) will hold out for £2 before selling up. Interesting to see that DBAY also hold 29% (just below the takeover level) despite their failed attempt to buy the company in the summer of 2021.
Interesting times and clearly way undervalued…
Thought I would say hello. Very compelling investment here with little down risk.
Just couldn't say no. Look forward to the continued story and later discussions.
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/01/10/four-potential-takeover-targets/
Anexo have just been highlighted by Simon Thompson as one of four takeover targets in 2023:
“Something has to give at Anexo, a provider of a litigation claims process focused on the recovery of credit hire and repair costs for the impecunious non-fault motorist involved in a road traffic accident. The £121mn market capitalisation company is rated on less than four times Panmure Gordon’s 2023 cash profit estimate to enterprise valuation even though it could earn a bumper pre-tax profit of £20mn-£25mn (after litigation funding and marketing costs) on its emissions scandal action against VW (on behalf of 13,000 claimants). A few months ago, chairman and 17 per cent shareholder Alan Sellers was a buyer at 127p a share”
I think The present economic climate, together with housing legislation , creates the perfect market place for ANX'S services .So at today's price I have made a modest top up. and will continue to do so as these buying opportunities arise. DYOR..
Good to see the Chairman buying another £100,000 of shares at 127.7p reported whilst I was on hols recently (bit of an admin disclosure delay there!):
Http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/anexo-ANX/share-news/Anexo-Group-PLC-Director-PDMR-Shareholding/89367579
Hopefully the recent bounce will continue back up to 140p-150p for starters.
The goal is to get the housing problem fixed but where the lawyers believe the tenant is entitled to financial compensation, because the problems they have experienced have not been resolved for a considerable amount of time and have resulted in suffering then that is where Bond Turner make their money. So Bond Turner would aim to only proceed with those types of disrepair cases.
Sorry to be thick. With motor claims we presumably win financial compensation for the client. . What do we win for a housing repair client? Proper maintenance? How does that work for ANX?
WH Ireland retain their 263p per share price target.
They've adjusted their forecast for this year slightly to 18.4p EPS to account for a higher interest charge, rising to 18.9p EPS next year and then 21.9p EPS.
With a 1.7p dividend, rising to 1.8p then 2p.
They forecast this H2 to actually be cash-generative, due to the transition to much faster cash-generating activities like Housing Disrepair and Motorcycles.
Plus of course there's the likelihood of an immediate £20m-£25m cash inflow from the VW case in the next few months.
WH Ireland describe the potential from the additional emissions cases as a "multi-billion opportunity".
The H1 results look very good at first glance, with 9.3p basic EPS and confirmation that full year expectations will be met.
Housing disrepair growth in particular is terrific, and extremely profitable with £2.4m profit already.
Net debt is obviously up due to the strong growth, as are cash collections, and it's good to hear about the increased focus on cash collections in H2.
The share price has dropped to deep value levels here for no reason and should rebound nicely.
It will be good to see the H1 results in the morning.
Forecast results for 2022 H1 are Revenue £68.3m, EBITDA £21.4m, PBT £14m. (using WH Ireland's numbers)
It'll be interesting whether these are exceeded based on the trading update in June for 1st 4 months of 2022 which showed a 52% growth in the average vehicles on hire compared to 2021. In fact ANX has dropped 10% since that trading update despite being cash generative going forwards and defensive (unfortunately people don't crash vehicles less in a recession, and arguably the quantity of poor housing could increase in a recession).
Confirmation today that the H1 results will be on 20th September:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/anexo-ANX/share-news/Anexo-Group-PLC-Appointment-of-Director-Notice-o/88921653
The June AGM update was very positive and confirmed ANX were trading in line with expectations of 19.3p EPS this year.
A few punters may have exited recently due to the barristers' strike, thinking it might affect court cases, but elsewhere a poster has confirmed this is definitively not the case:
"I rang the IR guy about this. It won't affect Anexo as their actions are civil and not criminal; it won't make a difference to court timings either as criminal cases are heard in magistrate and crown courts and not civil courts."
Good to see a series of small buys this morning causing a 3p rise. Perhaps an overhang has cleared.
Good to see the share price bouncing somewhat. Perhaps a seller has been cleared.
As well as the WH Ireland note below, Arden also issued an update after the trading statement, with a 300p target price.
They forecast 18.8p EPS this rising, to 20.8p EPS next year, with 1.6p and 1.8p dividends.
And Progressive Equity's new note forecasts 19.6p EPS rising to 21.9p EPS (with 1.5p and 1.6p dividends).
WH Ireland issued an update note yesterday commenting on how the upcoming Housing Disrepair Bill is a "major opportunity" for ANX.
They have a 263p target price, and forecast 19.3p EPS this year - a P/E of just 6.6:
Extracts:
"Housing Disrepair – White Paper highlights major opportunity for ANX
We view last week’s White Paper as underlining again the significant opportunity for ANX’s Housing Disrepair business, which started operations last year and has already enjoyed notable success, as reflected in last Thursday’s AGM update. The White Paper is a harbinger of the much-touted Housing Reform Bill, announced in the May 2022 Queen’s Speech, having been delayed by the pandemic. Given its well-established pedigree in litigating on behalf of the impecunious, ANX is extremely well positioned to support tenants in recovering their rights when faced with disrepair issues such as damp, electrical hazards, roof leaks, and unstable structures. While accepting that the course of legislation is always uncertain as an act progresses through Parliament, we view this bill as starkly highlighting the problems facing hundreds of thousands of tenants – problems for which ANX can already provide redress as tenants become more aware of their rights."
"More than this, we believe the Bill will serve a fundamental purpose in alerting tenants to their existing as well as proposed new rights, and on both of these scores, this is supportive of ANX’s model, since it is likely to bring more claimants to them, given the base ANX has already established in the claims litigation market."
"Strong FY21 results and FY22E off to a good start Strong results on May 11th saw FY21A sales up 36% YoY, at £118.2m, and adj. operating profit of £27.7m, 48.1% ahead YoY. The company also saw its best ever level of vehicles on the road in Q4 2021 – and last week’s update shows that FY2022E got off to a good start with numbers strong in the first four months. With good momentum on both sides of the business in the current year, we are encouraged by recent progress. With a 263p target price, we believe the shares have a lot further to run and see current levels as a buying opportunity. We also note the recent VW / Therium settlement – LFL, we believe this implies a potential cash injection of as much as £20-25m for ANX, with further significant potential in Mercedes and other emissions scandal opportunities."
Progressive Equity have now issued an update note - their forecasts are even better than Arden's, being 19.6p EPS this year, rising to 21.9p EPS next year.
That's a P/E of 6.4 falling to 5.7. Plus the VW and Mercedes payouts to come in.
Enough said.