We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
And no, not even George in his most wildly optimistic moments has ever mentioned 5 million monthly therms as a possible production level. 3 million therms absolute max - and in fact that's all the equipment on site could handle.
I see tradedesk is attempting to get more misleading by the day...
As George said, debt being cleared by year end is absolutely conditional upon there being a successful sidetrack. Strange that you should fail to acknowledge that vital condition?
Average Dave, I think you're mixing up mmscfd with therms. The hope from the existing production wells was stated at 5 mmscfd which roughly equals 1.5 million therms a month. As gas is more normally priced in therms, that's the more useful metric to use.
Yes could well be 5m therms. Remains to be seen but feet on ground for now and lets work on the base case of 1.5m coming on stream in June followed by another 1.5m from August onwards. Thats your 3m therms. Atb
Spot on tradedesk indeed
Just be aware out of interest that 3 of the posters including the one you responded to are in fact the "same" individual
Side track to commence from June/July, Rig is ready to go again from the CEO not me. Again nomad vetted statements not from some tom dick on a bulletin board.
From 16mins 56 secs
https://youtu.be/dX_j3cEBj4c
Yes. But if I recall, the goal is to ramp up to 5m therms not 1.5m. I think that was also in one of the interviews. Do correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks
A_D
The CEO has stated that not me. His statements are nomad vetted. Debt to be cleared by yr end or very close to.
From 19 mins 20 secs:
https://youtu.be/dX_j3cEBj4c
Tradedesk states:-
"The 1.5m therms from the side track is completely unhedged from start to finish"
True, but only provided that the field produces 1.5 million therms from existing wells and that the sidetrack is successful and that the sidetrack doubles monthly production.
"....theres a June/July side track for that, that production could be on stream from August."
See above. The sidetrack needs to be successful. As for timings of the attempt, an answer is awaited from ANGS to the recent IQ as to whether it has come up with a way to drill a sidetrack without suspending production.
"The initial 1.5m therms is unhedged for the whole of June and then hedged for three years."
Any production in June is unhedged, true. 1.5 million therms is the hoped-for production level over a full month. 15 days to go before June 1st.
"...the debt will be settled in yr 1. "
It simply cannot be, without a successful sidetrack. There's not enough gross revenue left to ANGS and SEL after the hedge at a total of 1.5 million therms a month total to pay off £14 million in a year. They only get gross revenue of c £6.6 million between them in the 12 months to end Jun 23, unless production is increased past that 1.5 million therm monthly level.
Trade desk
If you take a look at the final results RNS from the 14th of March ( available from the RNS link above) you will find you are mistaken.
Point 24 derivative Liability.
People don't disagree, they just ignor the same copy and paste because it's boring, as far as WG818 is concerned, if that was my ID being used to say the opposite of my views I would be complaining. So it seems very strange that because wg818 has had their fill of you HITS someone is using their moniker, what a joker!
Ofgem CEO to Sky News this morning:
"Yes, things are going to get tougher."
Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley tells @KayBurley the energy market is changing 'day by day', adding people should "expect further price rises in October".
Read more:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1526095271813341184?t=pqxz3eQJ_Cz9ZPhSW6xCZg&s=19
Obviously a great time to be a UK gas producer.
The 1.5m therms from the side track is completely unhedged from start to finish, theres a June/July side track for that, that production could be on stream from August. The initial 1.5m therms is unhedged for the whole of June and then hedged for three years, the debt will be settled in yr 1. Atb
It'd be a tad tricky to disagree with that, because it's not an opinion - it's basic maths.
If ANGS only produces 1.5 million therms per month ongoing, the price of gas over the next three years is literally entirely irrelevant (well, literally entirely irrelevant to ANGS and SEL anyway - but not to Mercuria).
Why? Because the effective sale price of the first 1.5 million monthly therms is already set from July 22 and for the following 35 months after that.
And the gross revenue left after the hedge (which would be c. £24 million) from those first 1.5 million therms per month would seem to be insufficient to cover debt plus interest repayment (say £14 million) and 3 years of field op costs (shall we be very optimistic and say £1 million per annum?). That would then leave £11 million, so £5.5 million each for ANGS and SEL).
... and then you've got ANGS's own requirement to repay the £1.4 million CLN repayment due next year (so, £4.1 million left), plus its own three years of G&A costs... and don't forget the 8% revenue over-ride once the loan is mostly paid off.
For ANGS (and NB not the field) it really does all hang on the success of the yet to be attempted sidetrack.
And we're still well under the 1.5p offered (sort-of) by SOU.
Where are BP, Shell etc etc who are supposed to be buying in?
HITS posted this and as fara s I can see no-one ever disagreeed with him/her
"Full production of 1.5 million therms as of June 1st? Probably a small sentiment-based spike at one of two vital milestones being passed - but it pales into insignificance compared to the necessity of a successful sidetrack.
At 1.5 million therms per month, c. 100% of Saltfleetby production is hedged for the next three years - and that means (at today's latest mark to market futures pricing) that Mercuria would get £75.5 million of pure profit over the next three years and ANGS/SEL would share £24 million of gross revenue over the same period. Out of which they have to pay £14 million plus back on the loan, leaving just £10 million of revenue to cover three years of G&A, plus field operations costs (and then ANGS also has the Knowe £1.4 million CLN to pay off next year). That would leave ANGS in close to a zero profit situation over the next three years."
Absolute nonsense Mirasol and you know it only too well
Go and deramp on UKOG fella please
Parasites seriously
TD - The side-track is needed to MEET the hedge - if it doesn't work the company is toast
What I like is we've got a side track at Saltfleetby to look forward to almost immediately after first gas. Aim of which is to double production from 1.5m to 3m therms and that'll be completely unhedged. Got to be 7-10p on that for me.
@ABMckinley Rig ready for June/July side track at Saltfleetby to. Doubles NatGas production from 1.5m to 3m therms (unhedged).
https://twitter.com/AiMMoves/status/1525833592546508800?t=NNPMIpOd2cblH4WA0rtPhw&s=19
"ANGS first gas is 1st June. Side track completed and online by mid August. I think we can get close to a £100mcap on a PE of 3"
https://twitter.com/Negan06981768/status/1525379913125076992?t=Sjisj_qG9ro2EWCC06t91w&s=19
Markets beginning to catch on here. Absolutely red hot sector to be positioned in right now. Energy security is top most priority, ANGs about to flick the switch.
Breaking: Full and firm backing from the Government to, UK's Energy Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said:
"Shout and scream all you like, but I’m not going to put Britain’s energy security at risk by shutting off domestic oil and gas production. We will need oil and gas for decades to come...
https://twitter.com/KwasiKwarteng/status/1525177655355654144?t=qkZxQN-soY6sc36yEHkYRg&s=19
"Kwasi Kwarteng wants natural gas to be reclassified as ‘green’ energy source to entice investors...encourage banks and pension funds to invest in the extraction projects, according to the Telegraph."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/kwasi-kwarteng-natural-gas-green-classification-b2078845.html
Have a great weekend all. Finally all the equipment is in. Wet commissioning to kick of on or around the 18th as guided by the company. Trading volumes are really starting to climb and will have this overhang gone in no time, it's going to pop and break out big any day. First target 3p-5p, good times ahead.
"The average hedged sales price is 43 pence/therm over the life of the hedge and the unhedged forward prices are presently not far off 300 pence/therm for unhedged sales in H2 2022. On the basis of a side track completed and online by mid August then H2 gross revenues (Angus share 51%) might be in the region of £24m which would ignore any benefit of unhedged production during June, potentially worth a further £4.5m at 300pence/therm"
Very significant for a company with a market cap of just £16m. Try £100m on a PE of just 3 and thats very very conservative looking at 7p+. I'm thinking PE 5/6 to be a bit more fair, £200m 14p+. Take out the side track its still 3-5p all day long.
Lots and lots of gas! Boom time!
Also it would be only logical to work out what revenues ANGS and SEL are left to share, if the field only produces 1.5 million therms a month ongoing.
Clue: it's not very much at all. Perhaps best not to count 3 million therms a month chickens before they're hatched...
BV, you don't think that possibly - just possibly, mind - one of the ramptastic squad decided they could mislead as usual and so copied WG's moniker for use next door on AD?FN?
Please...