Angus Energy Share Chat (ANGS)

19/01/2024 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2700 ***AVG CAL VALUE 41.24***

19/01/2024 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2,557,778.0000 *** 7.8822 MMSCF/D ***

19/01/2024 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.2232 *** 87,275 THERMS ***

Daily Output (Therms) = 87,275

Month To Date (Therms) = 1,552,714

Daily Output (Mmscf/d) = 7.8822

Month To Date (Mmscf/d) = 140.2557

Average Per Day (Therms) From 01.11.2023= 76,939

Daily Hedge Requirement Therms = 50,000.00

F/C Monthly Therms = 2,533,376

Average Monthly Price Per Therm = £0.7861

F/C Hedge 1 = £721,525

F/C Market Revenue = £772,992

F/C Net Monthly Saltfleetby Gas Rev = £1,494,517

F/C Net Rev Less Disbursements = £1,472,099

Links To Source data Files =

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

https://data.nationalgas.com/find-gas-data

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5351152

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Assumption That The Hedge Requirement Is A Daily Pro Rata*

Daily Output Of 50,000 Therms Per Day To Complete The Daily Hedge*

1) 6 Month Hedge Requirement Of 9,150,000 Therms / 183 Days: 01.10.2023 - 31.03.2024

2024 Q1 Therms & Revenue

Jan-24 2,533,376 £1,494,517 Forecast

Feb-24 2,369,932 £1,594,907 Forecast

Mar-24 2,533,376 £1,704,901 Forecast

2024 Q1 7,436,683 £4,794,325 Forecast

H1 2024 Therms & Revenue

Jan-24 2,533,376 £1,494,517 Forecast

Feb-24 2,369,932 £1,594,907 Forecast

Mar-24 2,533,376 £1,704,901 Forecast

Apr-24 2,451,654 £1,485,654 Forecast

May-24 2,533,376 £1,535,176 Forecast

Jun-24 2,451,654 £1,485,654 Forecast

H1 2024 14,873,366 £9,300,808 Forecast

12 Month Share Price Forecast: 7.38mmscf/d

PE Factor = 5.00

Ord Shares = 4,142,893,340

FC Avg Therms / Day = 81,722

Debt Outstanding KPI* = £2,628,498

12 Mth Rev-Debt = £15,743,891

F/Cast Share Price (p) = 1.54

Based Upon Current Market Data and Responsible Debt Repayment Plan

Share Price Forecast Tracker (p)

May-24 1.15

Jun-24 1.15

Jul-24 1.25

Aug-24 1.30

Sep-24 1.35

Oct-24 1.42

Nov-24 1.46

Dec-24 1.54

Regards,

Singhie, if your Share Price Forecast Tracker prices are anywhere near the ball park, then the current share price offers a very substantial discount.

Ocelot,

It is just a "hoped" prediction, it has little foundation, the reality is that if/until the finance deal is over the line, and THEN if/when they release the fine detail of that deal, including any discount applied etc, along with and any notable weight applied in relation to taking the old hedge out, and the associated 8% royalty, if it kicks in or is bought out with the hedge, etc etc etc

Far, Far to many if's, but's and maybe's to put ANY real future upside or downside to it at the mo. Anything predicted is simply pie in the sky at this time !!

Take it up with Singhie, Bubblepoint, if you want to discuss it in more detail.

Ocelot,

I don't need to take it up with anyone, thanks, YOU made the comment, which is currently baseless, as for the current price, well the market doesn't "currently" agree, nor do I, and as said, until the "facts & details" are revealed then it is impossible to speculate with any reasonable value.

Agree Bubblepoint.

Singhie has been wasting a lot of his and everyone else's time with his pointless prediction/forecast that he has built on some useless spreesheet formulas. It has been of no help and completely inaccurate.

Srk69. The Net Monthly Revenue is useful to shareholders imv.

For once I'll agree with BV.

When Singhie reports on things that have actually happened, i.e. The FACTUAL elements in his daily output data reports (actual daily and cumulative monthly production and the revenues associated with those), that is IMHO useful (though it's questionable whether this needs to be listed every day). Gallder does the same on a monthly basis.

Where Singhie keeps falling provably flat on his face is when he starts making his eternally wildly inaccurate future share price predictions. He's never got anywhere close, so he might as well forget doing that and cut his daily posts to half their current length.

Remember the Share Price forecast is based as a Tracker and in honesty the gas price at present is very weak, though remember a weak gas price shall place huge pressures upon the Renewables sector to provide their energy competitively as their costing models are coming under more and more scrutiny,

I strongly believe that the share price forecasts would be deliverable if it was not for the current challenging market conditions regarding Gas Price,

As the gas prices recover so shall the Share Price the current output levels are not unreasonable and there is going to be promising news regarding the upcoming re-financing deal plus the prospective new wells coming on line in 2024 Q4/2025 Q1 and this time we are already aware of the drilling issues to be dealt with and hopefully how to deal with those in the most cost effective manner,

Regards,

Mr Singhie

The gas price at present is still at least a third above its historical average (pre Covid, the Russian invasion, Gaza, and the Red Sea situation) It’s sitting at exactly what the company itself has said is break even. 0.66p per therm, and that is for peak winter prices. Its will fall as it historically does come the summer months ( it hit the mid 0.5 range last year and will likely be below that level when the Red Sea situation is resolved.

Let’s not also forget that the Angus accounts from earlier this year list Saltfleetby as being classified as a liability at uk Natural gas prices below circa 0.80p.

Then have a look at the figures that the CPR were based on. They are roughly double what they are today

2024…..128.3 p per therm

2025119.0p per therm.

Don’t for one minute think that Trafigura won’t be looking again at the deal with all the facts listed above.

Singhie, I find that major events effect the SP, nobody seems to mention the Major Partners that will be investing in the next stage of expansion to be announced shortly, very strange indeed?

Given that the SP is at a new all-time low, the whole market in general seems decidedly underwhelmed by these alleged "major partners that will be investing in the next stage of expansion to be announced shortly".

It certainly hasn't put any sort of premium on the ANGS SP, has it? It seem that you're the only person who finds this "very strange indeed", BV.

BV, given the extent of your many claimed purchases at far higher prices than today's, you've clearly been reacting to things that haven't happened yet (and frankly, that are unlikely to ever happen).

The market is showing a total lack of interest in puff and nonsense claims of alleged major partners being about to invest. I think you need to invest in a new brand of snake oil in your ever more desperate attempts to polish the unpolishable.

But great news for you again today, eh? You get the opportunity to average down. Yet again.