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I think we can all assume that the deal has completed or we would have been told it had fallen through and we will be told via RNS once the money is in AMC's bank account.
This is typical of Robin keeping S/H in the dark. He should tell us whether the deal has been finalised.......
Somethings will never change!
How One interprets the RNS & multiplies the figures contained therein is down to the individual. I still think there is the potential for substantial upside to 4.5p+. But there are no guarantees. We will have to wait to see how this plays out. Polish the rocket or damp squid.
Drmike, From the RNS 5th August:-
"The Board proposes that the record date and payment date for the distribution of the post-Completion dividend shall be no later than 90 days following receipt of the consideration payment."
In typical RY fashion the wording could be misread but I think they intend the record date to be the same day as the payment to shareholders date.
As it also says 'no later' than 90 days, which is quite unusually precise wording for AMC , so it could be soon after the completion and receipt of the $35M.
Thanks, DestituteB, Jezz, Geng for your views.
I reread the RNS of 3/10. It states
"The Board proposes that the record date and payment date for the distribution of the post-Completion dividend shall be no later than 90 days following receipt of the consideration payment."
I can't see anything specifically about an ex-dividend date, only that the record date shall not be more than 90 days after the completion date.
Have I missed something else Geng?
I don't believe the 1.8p dividend will be split. They may hold back the payment to the end of the 90 day period though to maximise the interest payable to their bank account!
Drmike33 "Are they not likely to make the ex-dividend date the completion date" Yes they are it's in an RNS.
DB: 4.5p - Think you are being a tad over optimistic here. NAV will be circa 2.4p (assuming the deal completes). There may be a bit of froth driven by sentiment towards any thing they reverse into. so perhaps top of the long term descending channel - 3.5p
There is an argument that you could add another 700k to NAV for the value of an AIM membership inc a years subscription for advisers etc. This would put NAV nearer to 2.6p but I still can't see 4.5p before the payout - would love to be proven wrong!
"A special dividend of 1.8p is to be paid within 90 days"
IMO the divi will be paid out over a 3 month period and not all at once at the end of the 90 days with some getting paid out quicker than others.
I can only see the SP dropping on news as AMC becomes a cash shell unless they have a RTO up their sleeves. aimho
4.5p....wouldn't that be nice
‘What is everyone’s trading strategy on this’
The key point here is the 3 Month Time-Line between the payment being received & the stock going X dividend.
My take: the stock will rise to reflect the payment. Some traders will profit take & the stock will get noticed. There is a window of up to 3 Months where people can buy in & still qualify for the dividend. Right up to the X dividend date. Over this ‘lengthy’ period the stock has the potential to rise back to it’s year high of 4.50 & above. Dependant on the value added to the market cap by buyers participation. The cherry on the cake is the dividend.
Are they not likely to make the ex-dividend date the completion date, or do more learned posters than me believe the ex-div date will be set as some date post receipt of the cash.
No point in buying more shares after the cash is received if they make the ex-div date earlier; can they do that and would it be of benefit to the business or the BOD?
Genuine question from a very long tem holder....
What is everyone’s trading strategy on this
Assuming completion/money received -> SP around 2.1p (conservative estimate).
After the announcement is made
1- “Get the F*ck out while you can you fool”:- Trade all shares for 2.1p, therefore no AMC skin in the game and move on.
2- “You think you're pretty smart!!”:- Trade all shares for 2.1p, wait to see if SP falls and buy back in lower (before ex-div date)………...
3- “Seriously, you are not very smart!!”:- Wait for div @ 1.8p to be paid (up to 90days), then sell shares (see what value the market thinks of what is left, hopefully not lower than 0.3p).
4- “You deserve to lose it all”:- Receive div @ 1.8p and keep the shares to see what the BOD can do.
5- “The completion is not going to happen/BOD will screw you over”:- sell now and stop adding!! sell sells sell
Some will say I am crazy, but I am hedging towards option 4. The main reason is, over the years of accumulating I have built up largish holding, maybe only chance to have such a large holding in a company.
Not sure if 2 and 3 end up being the same !!
Gaz,
That plan's all good except if it's a 7:00 am RNS the SP will just GAP to 1.8 - 2.2p on open and yes that GAP will close - when the divi is paid!
They may not issue the completion RNS until funds are in the account. May be a good chance over the next few days to get more below 1.6p as some get twitchy.
Is currently up 200% but I wouldn’t recommend anyone to buy it at this late stage. There’s a good chance that AMC will have it’s day & surpass your expectations. We will find out soon.
Gazzleberry
I think you need to read the original post again.
"Next week - Post completion and receipt of the $35m, AMC will have $38m of cash worth 2.35p per share. So a 40%+ upside for the cash alone, with no geopolitical risk expected next week."
The reduction of geopolitical risk is predicated on the deal completing and the monies being in Amur's bank. The comment "Next week....." is what completion, receipt and the reduction of geopolitical risk is based on.
TDT
If the deal goes through and the money goes into Amur's bank account where do you see a geopolitical risk?
TDT
Despite the potential sale, I've been keeping the AMC chart up to date. There's still a chance to buy before the sale is completed.
The upside on the chart is between 1.84p and 2.4p this is quite interesting as anything above 1.84p would be breaking the longer term downward resistance. If this happens the SP could rise to the top of the rising channel around 2.49p - which is roughly where NAV is.
Who knows they may even announce some amazing deal along with completion to add more momentum and reach 3.5p (top of long term downward channel) - Unlikely as this is RY we're talking about.
If things do happen as 'promised' then would expect an RNS later today or tomorrow confirming completion.
https://invst.ly/zdv92
Gazzleberry
It might not be in the RNS but brookieboy69's assessment of the current situation seems to me to spot on. What is it in particular you think is wrong with the post?
TDT
Next week - Post completion and receipt of the $35m, AMC will have $38m of cash worth 2.35p per share. So a 40%+ upside for the cash alone, with no geopolitical risk expected next week. The shell left behind may also have some value. As each day ticks buy I am tempted to take a gamble.
Well, today is November 1st.
Will we receive some of our money in November 2025 or in 2022?
As always RY manages to inject some grey into what could be black and white!
‘What the hell were computers invented for’
In Stock Market terms, that’s taking money off Joe Public.
A lot of work behind the scenes.Good grief how many shares are traded on lse on a daily basis.
What the hell were computers invented for.
MD
They are stated in the RNS.but it is puzzling why we have to wait so long (up to 90 days) to be paid. There must be a reason why the company would sit on the money for so long and the RNS hasn’t stated that which leaves cynical posters to think it’s a ploy to get voted back in at the AGM. Perhaps I’m being astonishingly naïve but I’d like to believe there’s a better reason than that. Anyways, roll on next week, let’s hope this gets completed and the money is received by the company and we can all breath a sigh of relief
I’d rather the dividend declared be paid asap thereafter bearing in mind the source of funds.