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Don't you just love it when good news sends the SP diving! This stock is a joke and I recommend you all bail out as quickly as possible, I HAVE!!!
your alright i think i will stay but thanks for your concern lol.
@Icemanzag ... thank you for your input, there is a disconnect between SP and fundamental value, you are quite right. I was wondering if you could add some of your insight into why that may be. I've long thought that with thinnly traded stocks that when spreadbets are availble then a relatively small "investment" can cause a shift in price of the underlying security, where the real harvest is being reaped by the same body spreadbetting. It may be the reason why many platforms have stopped offering spreadbets on smaller companies.
Elir71 until Alba apply for or get issued a full production licence & permission to re-commision the old mine, all they have is exploration licences. This basically equals lots of capex with no cash generative sales return permitted. Notwithstanding the permitted sales of sampling produced.
I expect the cash burn rate is quite high which will ultimately require many more placings to fund the continued exploration & expansion of exploration areas, manpower & equipment costs.
Alba's SP could still be at this level in 2024 if no production licences are granted.
Funny how the naysayers appear as the SP goes down.
But you have to explore to find and produce you could say this for any mining stock? Chicken and the egg scenario comes to mind. We have to accept tho that this is pure speculation even on good results until we get to pfs and even then nothing is guaranteed but that’s where you have to decide the risk vs reward and if you believe I think we all understand the position here
@ShouldveSold
You are incorrect in your assertion that the exploration licence at Clogau St Davids disallows the sale of gold found during the exploration phase. Gold extracted under the terms of the exploration lease is saleable with a 4% royalty payable to the mines royal.
As you are aware exploration leases have expiry dates and usually have minimum levels of exploration expenditure as a condition of such leases. You'll doubless be aware of the temporary suspension of that requirement following active lobbying of the Greenlandic government.
I have made an assessment of the capex required in the next 12 months on a project by project basis which I have published.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BUkYp2OWPTU25YZPe0qSHG7X0x3dBFVsZlW4zlKa1L4/edit?usp=sharing
I'd welcome your comments as long as they are of a quantitive rather the vague qualatative nature, I'd ask you to refrain from subjective statements such as "cash burn quite high", as it is rather meaningless and only serves to evoke sentiment as opposed to reason. I'm rather suspicous of the motives of posters who use emotive terms.
@ShouldveSold
Have you read the 1976 mining memoir ?
https://www.nmrs.org.uk/assets/pdf/BM3/BM3-12-16-synopsis.pdf
You'll see from the account that there were at that time very high grades of visible gold in areas of the mine which are unflooded and well served with new infrastructure installed over the past couple of years. I believe Stellar resources demonstrated some excellent grades more recently. Since no commercial extraction has happened in the meantime, then I'm confident that some reasonably easy to get to reserves exist in Clogau.
You are quite correct in your description of a mineral exploration business model
raise capital -> spend on exploration and potential resource -> proven resource -> either sell on or exploit --> realise profit
Lol righty oh
Apologies if you feel as though I have insulted your stock.
I made sure in included this sentence in my post to you "Notwithstanding the permitted sales of sampling produced."
When a company has no cash generative income, cash can only come from institutional funding, loan notes or placings.
To infer gold exploration is not expensive is navie. Unless the chaps are doing it with pick axes, buckets and canaries.
For sure cash will need to be raised last time tho it saw a rise in sp tho it’s all to do with if the money is used to further explore and realise the project or on salary’s and holidays. The way this is presented will make a difference how a placing is received. For now we can’t do anything until they prove some more resource as sentiment is all time low!
@ShouldveSold
"you feel as though I have insulted your stock" <-
no offence taken by me, I'm quite objective and balanced in my approach to stock analysis. Since I've gone the the effort of producing numbers, perhaps you would care to provide your own numbers, as you're portraying yourself rather badly on here at present with your unsubstantiated statements. Anyone would think you've shorted the stock on some spreadbet !
if you are a believer in how undervalued the company is why not just soak up all these cheap shares, that are being extracted from scared investors?
Elir how I appear on here is of no concern of mine. Perhaps you speak for everyone here and see yourself as the gatekeeper.
If you feel as thoughI have said anything false or inaccurate by all means call me out.
I am free to debate my opinion on the stock.
Every month like clockwork, sometimes twice a month, warrants are excised. That would give an indicate as to the cash burn rate.
Whether that cash received is going into directors pockets to services provided or company accounts for capex, I don't know. But I can add 2 & 2 together. And looking at the SP movements over the past 6months, with advancements of projects and no income being generated, its not hard to correlate.
I see you are a numbers kind of person and unless you have actual figures to refer to, you are unable to entertain extrapolations or engage in debate.
Since you are a numbers guy, perhaps you have calculated the sales generated so far to see if it indeed covers capex.
I bring this back to my only point. Until the company is granted production licences, in my opinion the SP can only remain range bound.
Personally I would like the SP to increase 5x but you appear to take issue with me wanting the company to gain those productions licences to enable to SP to do so.
Its pretty clear to me that the way Alba becomes cash generative & eventually profitable is with a production licence.
For everyone invested here who is frustrated at the SP inability to break higher, the reason is clear.
GF get your finger out, get a production licence granted. Start production gold & that income can fund further exploration here & in Greenland.
Spending the next 12-18months exploring will not increase the SP.
ShouldveSold,
Alba did announce recently that they intend to start processing the old waste pits for early revenue generation. They are sampling/testing the pits now. Why they didn’t start on this earlier is beyond me. Apparently, they can sell all the gold they find during this phase and pay 4% royalty fee.
IMO, the reason the SP is failing to gain ground is not the lack of production licence, it is GF’s management of expectations, not paying attention to sentiment, the way Clogau was handled (not issuing the bulk sample results at the end of Q1 cut the SP legs off) and so on.
Other similar companies with no production licences have done considerably better, see my post below on “what really matters”.
Yanis I have no intention to butt heads with anyone on this BB.
I don't know how much gold is currently being extracted from the sampling phases, royalty free or not; my point being, Alba is unable to run the kind of yardage to enable a profitable return until it gains a licence/s to do so.
I understand that until that time, all Alba can do is explore to prove up the asset value in hopes for when licence are granted, they can hit the ground running.
My concern is GF seems content to explore till the cows come home rather than being focused on production.
Has a application date even been mentioned or production date forecasted?
ShouldveSold, not butting heads lol :)
I am not staying that what you post is wrong - a production licence will indeed change things for the better, considerably better. What I am saying is that the SP should now be much higher than where it is. The reason is not is GF.
Yanis I wasn't referring to you personally moreso to Elir. Dude came at me like some kind of guard dog.
Calling out the inaccuracies
"Its pretty clear to me that the way Alba becomes cash generative & eventually profitable is with a production licence.",
Alba is not yet in a position to be granted an exploitation licence at Clogau. Environmental Impact studies, Planning studies and a more accurate model of the expected resources at the mine are necessary to make for an efficient extraction strategy. Look what's recently happened at Scotgold where the extraction plan has gone awry.
Another business model is to never go into production, rather prove up resources to a saleable level JORC PEA etc and sell them on for a capital gain to a mining company just prior to production, reinvesting the proceeds into more prospects, exploration and special dividend.
Exploration is the primary way that mining exploration companies add value. Though I would have some sympathy for your sentiment that some production could start sooner rather than later or at least some very extensive "Bulk samping" at the John Hughes location. My main body of contention with the BOD is the witholding of the bulk samples as you are doubtless aware.
"every month like clockwork warrants are exercised" .... no ... here's what I believe is an accurate account of every warrant and placing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Gw7zD77eS4UhpM2hIMpwJQrBoCgYghx9q1-24FDyLdc/edit#gid=1122024619
I would hope the SP would be higher by the next lot of expiry of options
I am in complete agreement with Yanis' conclusion of the reason of SP disconnect
The consequence of exploration, which requires expenditure on exploration, is to add value to prospective mineral resources by proving them. (Naturally disproving them may happen, in which there's a loss). Effective exploration, properly funded is the primary means by which value is added to this company. As for where has the money gone since November, I think the accounts will at least give us a good starting point to liquid assets available at that time. The company has been very communicative with respect to exploration activities providing some excellent insights and graphics.
I have not made any assertion that sales will cover capex required, on the contrary I believe some finance raising , on probably a couple of occasions will be necessary before self sustainability, however I also believe it will be nowhere near on the same dilutive scale as Bergen and indeed I am actively campaigning for shareholders to be included in discounted offers of placings. I've provided estimates of costings of current works, based on information on general pricing from geotechnical engineers and geologists who are currently working in that field (but not on any project connected with Alba)
I'm very keen for a production licence to be granted too, but based on the full information available. I am fully supportive of the detailed field work being conducted at present and believe it will lead to a more effective mine prod
Calling out the inaccuracies
"Its pretty clear to me that the way Alba becomes cash generative & eventually profitable is with a production licence.",
Alba is not yet in a position to be granted an exploitation licence at Clogau. Environmental Impact studies, Planning studies and a more accurate model of the expected resources at the mine are necessary to make for an efficient extraction strategy. Look what's recently happened at Scotgold where the extraction plan has gone awry.
Another business model is to never go into production, rather prove up resources to a saleable level JORC PEA etc and sell them on for a capital gain to a mining company just prior to production, reinvesting the proceeds into more prospects, exploration and special dividend.
Exploration is the primary way that mining exploration companies add value. Though I would have some sympathy for your sentiment that some production could start sooner rather than later or at least some very extensive "Bulk samping" at the John Hughes location. My main body of contention with the BOD is the witholding of the bulk samples as you are doubtless aware.
"every month like clockwork warrants are exercised" .... no ... here's what I believe is an accurate account of every warrant and placing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Gw7zD77eS4UhpM2hIMpwJQrBoCgYghx9q1-24FDyLdc/edit#gid=1122024619
I would hope the SP would be higher by the next lot of expiry of options
I am in complete agreement with Yanis' conclusion of the reason of SP disconnect
The consequence of exploration, which requires expenditure on exploration, is to add value to prospective mineral resources by proving them. (Naturally disproving them may happen, in which there's a loss). Effective exploration, properly funded is the primary means by which value is added to this company. As for where has the money gone since November, I think the accounts will at least give us a good starting point to liquid assets available at that time. The company has been very communicative with respect to exploration activities providing some excellent insights and graphics.
I have not made any assertion that sales will cover capex required, on the contrary I believe some finance raising , on probably a couple of occasions will be necessary before self sustainability, however I also believe it will be nowhere near on the same dilutive scale as Bergen and indeed I am actively campaigning for shareholders to be included in discounted offers of placings. I've provided estimates of costings of current works, based on information on general pricing from geotechnical engineers and geologists who are currently working in that field (but not on any project connected with Alba)
I'm very keen for a production licence to be granted too, but based on the full information available. I am fully supportive of the detailed field work being conducted at present and believe it will lead to a more effective mine prod
So what are you & I disagreeing on? What have I said which has caused you to take such a defensive position?
I'll thank you to disdain from insult.
New posters appearing, not long now :)
I think the areas which we disagree on are covered in my response to you
"came at me like some sort of guard dog", You can expect to be called out when you make unsubstantiated statements backed up neither with reference quantification nor anlaysis.
I think its one thing to say you disagree with my opinion but to take the stance of "calling out inaccuracies" suggests your are defending the company and or trying to protect anyone from reading this debate.
If feels like you are the self appointed voluntary company secretary or commercial director here.
Can we just take a step back and be less confrontational?
We both want the company to produce gold and graphite with productions licences.
I am frustrated with how long that is taking and the SP being pegged. You are happy with it.
As for unsubstantiated statements, those are my opinions which I am free to post here.