Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
No sign of a proper FQ update for our licenses - apart from the fact obviously that they exercised their JV option of 2 of them for a total of 4. I suppose it has been the rainy season but there was plenty of talk about ongoing drilling activity so shouldn't we expect a proper update at any point now? I believe the last one was October 23 some 5 or so months ago.
FQM were very quick to progress Sentinel into production after they acquired it. Would be great for them if they could confirm a significant deposit on African Pioneer's licences.
Nothing wrong with your analysis and unusual style but for some reason I cannot figure, I cannot open even one of the multiple links you have posted !!
With that, I can now take my leave with a more expert link copier than me.
Thank you and God Bless - typed out all the layer by layer peeling of this co's NW Zambia, which was very hard to decipher. Why? The geology - one has to go thru so many co's that are now at NW Zambia to peer review.
News, Thur, 22 Feb 2024.
A few days old but worth the read nonetheless. At least the link works :
https://www.mining.com/first-quantum-exercises-option-over-two-licences-as-it-looks-to-expand-in-zambia
I quote from the article dated today, 21 Feb 2024 relating to First Quantum results via Mining.com
"The co is the sole owner of Sentinel mine & has an 80% stake in Kansanshi mine. Its presence in ZAMBIA, the 2nd LARGEST PRODUCER includes Fishtie copper project near the border with DRC. ===IT ALSO INCLUDES 2 LICENCE OPTIONS THROUGH A DEAL WITH A F R I C A N P I O N E E R [LON:AFP]."
METALHEAD 25: AFP-FQ JV.
!1 July 2023 : Screenshot of FQ AIR CORE drilling ---------6 6 HOLES ---totalling 4,028m --at TURACO, EAGLE & KANYIKA. Soil sampling at CHIPOPA. [2] Drilling at ITAKU, RNS dated 6 Feb & 6 June 2023 --------In short, it seems FIRST QUANTUM HAS D I S C O V E R E D that the GEOLOGY that HOSTS THE MASSIVE KAMOA-KAKULA DEPOSIT IN DRC --EXTENDS INTO ITAKU. Copper has been identified by drilling. Here comes the exciting part. SO FAR, FQ HAVE PUT 2 HOLES into Itaku , 5 KM A P A R T. Looking for area ..accumulation..this means more AMT & then more drilling. If successful it could be HUGE. COLIN BIRD APPEARANCES ON SUNDAY ROAST , HOW HE SPOKE OF ITAKU on 17 May & 7 June [1] "ITS TRANSFORMATIONAL FOR THEM [FQ], let alone US, & they are a $23bn co.========THIS IS THE BEST DISCOVERY, THE BEST RESULT , THAT I HAVE HAD THE PLEASURE OF PUTTING OUT & that INCLUDES KALUMBILA WHICH I SOLD FOR $260M. " [Colin Bird, Chairman of AFP].
" If anyone knows of another explorer with anything like this much going for it, for sub £5m, let me know."-Metalhead25 @1 July 2023.
"ONGOMBO: NAMIBIA [AFP]"-Metalhead25 posted on X, same thread as above on FQ/AFP, NW Zambia:
"AFP owns 85%. Sunday Roast podcast on 17 May , Colin Bird envisaged at least 10k copper p.a. at current prices would be $83m a year, 40% MARGINS." -1 July 2023 by Metalhead25 with thanks on Twitter.
Link: https://twitter.com/Metalhead2525/status/1675019415761432576 [1 July 2023 by Metalhead25].
FQ-AFP ORIGINAL AGREEMENT, 22 JAN 2022:
From the table, there is NO impediment for AFP to sell, except it has to be offered to FQ first.
[NOT SURE WHY MY THREAD QUOTING COLIN BIRD, CHAIRMAN OF AFP FROM 1 SUNDAY ROAST INTERVIEW DATED 7 JUNE 2024 [even Metalhead25 heard it and quoted it on X] stated Mr Bird said: "TERRIFIC DISCOVERY -MAJOR DISCOVERY."
As I said today, it is SUPPORTED BY AFP RNS. -------I THINK SOME HAVE NOT TWIGGED THAT FQ HAS DRILLED AIR CORE & DIAMOND DRILLING & LAST REPORTING, FQ SPENT $1.6M but could be more since then as the 16.2.24 AFP RNS stated MORE THAN $500K SPENT ON EACH OF THE 4 LICENCES, NW ZAMBIA JV WITH AFP. SO, HOW CAN FQ SIGN 1ST "EARN IN" AND PRODUCE TECHNICAL REPORT ["INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCE"] @28.2.26 -----------IF THERE HAS BEEN NO DISCOVERY YET?----So, folks MIS-READ RNS OF 16.2.24 AFP and thought JV STARTING FROM SCRATCH but not realising 2 years have passed and FQ COMMITTING TO INDICATED MIN. RESOURCE STATEMENT. CANT SIGN IF NO DISCOVERY, MINING 101? DYOR, NIA. Pls check. 21 Feb 2024 AFP, £4m+ @2.39p [to buy].
Https://www.mining-technology.com/news/first-quantum-to-expand-production-in-the-african-copperbelt 19.2.24
By Mining-Technology.com
The above title is taken verbatim from the article. The other details are about the taking up of the other 2 licences from AFRICAN PIONEER plc and First Earn In period to prepare a Technical Report "BEFORE FEB" to earn 51%.
Comment:
Mining Technology records major mining news and it is interesting that First Quantum signed with AFP on 16.2.24 due to its Panama operations ceasing. Its a no wonder why the Technical Report of Indicated Mineral Resource is to be done 28 Feb 2026 which appears rather FAST? Kobold & Midnight Sun JV announced yesterday, 20.2.24 is for a 4 year period to earn 75% even though there has already been drilling done by Midnight Sun before the JV. Midnight Sun's strike length is 20km and targeting 1bn tonnes. AFP 's strike length is potentially >45km and targeting 1bn tonnes also. [see AFP presentation Mar 2023 in earlier post below.] LOOK FORWARD TO FIRST QUANTUM ISSUING THE MODELLING of the JV project etc.
-------------FIRST QUANTUM SIGNS OPTION, 1ST EARN IN PERIOD AGREEMENT TO EARN 51%.-------
[1] ----AFP RNS [3565D] 16 FEB 2024 @17:00: "CENTRAL AFRICAN COPPERBELT: UPDATE"---Latest Update
AFP-FQ: "FIRST EARN IN PERIOD: 18 Feb 2026 -Technical Report INDICATED Mineral Resources of at least 300,00Mt of contained copper to earn ---51%." FQ has signed the option for the 2 remaining licences, totalling 4, NW, Zambia.
"Extremely successful for both FQ & AFP with the --WESTERN FORELANDS & KAMOA style mineralising environment being ESTABLISHED as well as NEAR SURFACE mineralisation in the fold & thrust domain further to the east of our licences."
[2] ----AFP ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT, 28 APR, 2023 RNS 9588X @18:17---
"FQ have reported considerable success with their initial field work & drilling programmes. E..xp including deep holes
Outcome ..EXTREMELY HIGH in potential with FQ stating they believe that the --OREBODY--style RESEMBLES that of ==KAMOA KAKULA == in the nearby Congo & the WESTERN FORELANDS mineralisation associated with Kamoa. This represents a potential SIGNIFICANT ---M A J O R DISCOVERY --for Zambia, First Quantum [FQ] & of course African Pioneer [AFP]."
[1] ----INTERVIEW WITH COLIN BIRD, CHAIRMAN, AFP WITH SUNDAY ROAST, 1 OCT 2023---
Season 6, Episode 6.
Mr Bird: " Massive STRIKE of GROUND, ---------R E P L I C A OF K A M O A ."
https://twitter.com/RoastPR/status/1708434484431892852 1.10.23
"Kamoa 2nd richest mine in the world. "
[Ref: AFP Mar 2023 Presentation, https://africanpioneerplc.com/presentations-reports/ Pg8/22: "Combined STRIKE length > 4 5 KM peak xRF 316-1,046ppm in soil. TARGETING NEAR SURFACE 1 B I L L I O N TONNES@>0.5% CU [+Co]."
[2] Colin Bird, Sunday Roast Interview: "Its transformational for them [FQ], let alone us, and they are a $23bn co. [b] THIS IS THE ---BEST D I S C O V E R Y, BEST RESULT, that I have ever put out , and that includes Kalumbila which I sold for $260m." Link: https://twitter.com/Metalhead2525/status/1675020566678450176 dated 1 July 2023.
Waiting for update from FQ/AFP after the Financial Results & Presentation from FQ, 21 Feb 2024 [released].
DYOR. NIA. The poster Metalhead put the info in a tweet [linked] and said no one talks about it. I
Industry News:
KOBOLD signs JV with Midnight Sun of Canada, Wed, 20 Feb 2024 [NW Zambia]. Midnight Sun is targeting 1 BILLION tonnes [ie rocks] and their licence is near the majors with 1bn tonnes mines - @newton of CEO.CA posted a Youtube on it via https://ceo.ca/MMA [Midnight Sun]. The JV is for 4.5 yrs with Kobold earning 75%. A/c to the presentation on Youtube, it was said that the First Quantum mine Kananshi [to the North of Midnight Sun] is running out of ore, NW. Zambia.
First Quantum has 2 mines ie Sentinel [formerly bought from Colin Bird for US$260m [Kalumbila, Kiwara Plc] & Kananshi.
Comment:
Mr Bird's interviews with Sunday Roast ARE SUPPORTED by the AFP RNS & Annual Report AFP RNS as abov
FQ are doing a investor presentation tomorrow. Hopefully we will also get some news.
LoL
Found the map of where MIDNIGHT SUN'S SOLWEZI , ZAMBIA IS:
It is 2 doors away from FIRST QUANTUM'S SENTINEL MINE [1.03 Billion Tonnes @0.45% cu] to the right of Solwezi.
1 door away is BARRICK MINE [LUMWANA @ 960Mt @0.55% cu.
Midnight Suns'Solwezi is SOUTH OF FIRST QUANTUM'S KANASANSHI [1 Billion Tonnes @0.66% cu copper].
-------ALL IN THE DOMES REGION--nearby.
Colin Bird sold KALAMBILA [Kiwara plc] to FIRST QUANTUM for US$260m and FQ turned it to Sentinel and increase the tonnage further.
Link: https://midnightsun.com/multiple-target-areas/ Zambia Domes Region and nearby showing the above.
---------------ALL CHASING TIER 1 IE 1 BILLION TONNES [at least] and at the grades of 0.5% + as above.-------------
"Midnight Sun Mining and KOBOLD join forces on the DUKWA target in Zambia."- Junior Mining Network, 3 hrs ago, Tues, 20 Feb 2024.
Midnight Sun is a Canadian co. KOBOLD of Bezon & Gates fame is UPPING its presence in ZAMBIA after hitting a big copper discovery in NW Zambia [said to be largest in this Cth?].
Kobold is taking 75% and can spend US$15m in exploration and make cash payment of US$500,000 over ======4.5 YRS.
Dumbwa is Midnight Sun's Solwezi project in Zambia.
Comment:
I dont know yet where the above project is. Above is INDUSTRY NEWS about Zambia given AFP is at NW Zambia -JV with First Quantum. Kobold already has another JV with a UK AIM co besides AFP. HOTTING UP IN ZAMBIA ie exploration.
Anglo about to start drilling near AFP?
Tues, 20 Feb 2024.
SALE OF AFP-FQ JV:
Sunday Roast asked Mr Bird , ----common question asked in all co interviews be it Sunday Roast etc re: Sale of project.
Mr Bird said in the interview [click reply of this post and the original post with link to the interview is given] , 3 mths ago BEFORE the AFP 16 Feb 2024 FQ OPTION PERIOD STARTS to prepare Indicated Resource Statement, he said, "ITS DISRESPECTFUL TO FQ to take about sale [think Mr Bird meant at this time or openly talk about sale ]? Then, Mr Bird went on to a comment that I did not take in. However, Mr Bird NEVER DENIED, a sale is not on his potential agenda as norm.
COLIN BIRD'S STAKE IN AFP
Mr Bird's latest AFP RNS states he has upped his stake to own now 10.87% of AFP [please check]. In many co's where the CEO's & Chairman's are NOT the founders of the co , then stakes are of less importance in my view only. So, how much Mr Bird owns of this co is relevant to me vs other others in the Bird stable. I have checked MARKET SCREENER and 10.87% if the largest stake vs other co's.
OPTIONS
That is also a good insight as norm. YES, TICK, MR BIRD HAS REASONABLE OPTIONS.
SALE
Yes, Mr Bird, from the above, IF you pull a sale, then no doubt you will be able to afford your sea side holiday per another Sunday Roast at Christmas 2023 Sunday Roast podcast with 2 of Lemon Consultancy principals. Yes, they took will want a sale and so do I.
I leave it with Mr Bird as his interest is certainly aligned with such a stake of 10.87%. With thanks. News. 20.2.24
Mkt Cap :£4-5m @2.4p.
Correction: Should read : sold Kalumbila for US$260m. No one is here on this forum and evidenced by no buys except 3 small tiny ones . Mr Bird's buyers are at ANOTHER co [Mr Bird has 3 chasers at NW Zambia]. UNDER THE JV AGREEMENT WITH FIRST QUANTUM, AFP CAN SELL THE PROJECT, but must give FQ, 1st right of refusal. DYOR. NIA.
AFP MKT CAP :£5M @2.4p [or £4m+]. Tues, 20 Feb 2024.
I listened to the audio interview from Mr Bird dated 3 mths ago as I had just rushed thru it given it was late at night.
Why did Mr Bird say that FIRST QUANTUM-AFP JV , NW Zambia [4 licences] is bigger than Kalumbila?
AGREEMENT TO JV SIGNED 22 JAN 2022.
So, by the time of the above interview, Mr Bird was told more by FQ. He said its not a secret society and FQ are telling them the progress [invited to FQ]. So, since this interview with Mr Bird was 3 MONTHS AGO & hard to find, it is at a PIVOTAL time ie 22 Jan 2022 - 3 mths ago.
REASON WHY AFP-FIRST QUANTUM NW ZAMBIA IS "MUCH BIGGER THAN KALUMBILA."?
-A/c to Mr Bird:
[1] Potential STRIKE length. Think I heard Mr Bird say: 30-40KM [pls check]. Per the only Presentation from AFP Mar 2023: it stated: "Combined STRIKE TARGET >4 5 K M with peak xRf 316-1,046ppm in Cu copper in soil."
[2] Mr Bird also said TWO STYLES of potential mineralisation: K A M O A style & KOLEWEZI style [latter more surface].
|Let's check the said presentation : "p8/22: Shallow percussion drilling intersected peak of UP TO 3% CU.
NEAR SURFACE DRILL intercepts of 0. 5 % - 0.75% cu --===OVER 50M--===.
[a] 7 NEAR OR SURFACE cu in soil ---ANOTHER LARGE ANOMALY...
[3] AUDIO MAGNETITE SURVEY: detects conceptual style K A M O A - K A K U L A type mineralisation ===TRIGGERING
s t r a t a g r a p h i c DRILLING > 6 0 0 METRE DEPTH."
[]4{} TARGETING N E A R SURFACE > 1 BN TONNES@ > 0.5% cu copper.
Link: https://africanpioneerplc.com/wp-content/uploads/AFP-Presentation-March2023_v1.pdf
Comment:
Yes, it does appear the data supports what Mr Bird says broadly [given 2 years of drilling etc by FQ] CULMINATING on Fri, 16 Feb 2024 that they will take the other 2 licences to total 4 [2 earlier taken]. It is also important to NOTE WHICH EARLIER 2 LICENCES they took. It is commonly known that a potential target of 1BN tonnes is Tier 1 but grade will also be of interest. []1[] Potential STRIKE length [be it starting from 30km ] also is commonly known as DISTRICT scale. []2[] GRADES : appears that it is realistic set potentially from a lower pt. []3[] So, yes, surface is the CHERRIES per Mr Bird in 1 interview for FQ relating to CAKE. Mr Bird said CREAM is KAMOA style.
So, barring unforeseen circumstances , common to ALL mining projects, Mr Bird's fair comment is upheld by the data thus far. FQ on 16.2.24 has now SIGNED to take on AFP's all 4 licences, NW Zambia and PREPARE AN INDICATED RESOURCE MINERAL STATEMENT ON 28.2.26 --EARNING 51% AT THAT STAGE VS 49% AFP. AFP does not own 100% of the project but only 80% and 20% to Lemon Consultancy. Mr Bird sold Kalumbila [Kiwara plc] to First Quantum many years ago for US4260m ---Kalumbila is 80-100km from the current project. A/c to the said presentation, the near neighbours to AFP/FQ are FQ, Rio & Anglo. Anglo is about to start drilling shortly.
NO ONE HAS BOUGHT INTO AFP - 3 trades today that are so tiny, it doesn
LAST POINT:
I have just had dinner. So, will finish my post. As for Bushrangers , Bird project [Chairman of AFP] for example, he may have said he wants 10p but of what mkt cap? Do not forget he cannot say I will accept x, y, z price as he would lose any bargaining power. Look at Havieron - the shareholders said they want x, y, or z and the major is NOT playing. Of course, shareholders want top dollar and major gives fair value at max. Sol as in Bushrangers, I thought I had better explained so that there is NO MISUNDERSTANDING. As for Mankayan [Lawrence asked Bird to run the co], they REFUSED to sell for an OFFER that only paid out MINING DRILL COST. As for NW ZAMBIA, yes, Cynus7, if Bird hits big, that will set a light on AIM and Bird said that as well but not necessarily relating to his co alone but to AIM in general as a principle. There is LACK OF DRILLING details , even Kobold who hit the biggest copper this Cth, one notices they NEVER released TONNAGE, GRADES etc. Why? Not sure given is it for commercial protection or they dont want rivals to get licences nearby or on the trend etc? IT IS MY BELIEF from looking at the NW ZAMBIA MAP, that AFP managed to get First Quantum in a JV because their licences are in the "HOT EXPLORATION AREA OF THE DOME" [per Chairman of ARCM]. Also, AFP's 1 licence is SITTING ON THE WESTERN FORELAND TREND CONGLOMERATE itself coming down from the DRC legendary KAMOA Kakula.
Any licence that has NO MAJOR in a JV means that yes, if it hit big, it can pay out but equally if it does not hit Tier 1, then, money spent and either one has to try to develop it [beyond a AIM co's reach] or sell out to a smaller player. So, advantage and disadvantage.
AFP -FIRST QUANTUM JV, NW ZAMBIA.
Even Jack Dann is aware that it may not go beyond 51% to First Quantum and 49% AFP. Why? WITH A INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCE STATEMENT , it is saleable. Mather said, majors know and understand results and even without a MRE it can sell [of course if it is a potential Tier 1 as majors are not interested in small projects]. MRE is maiden resource statement and one can be produced once drilling results come in , after some reasonable no of holes are drilled. After all, it is just putting all the figures together.
SATELLITE
On open file, one can zoom in to the NW Zambia and see what holes FIRST QUANTUM has drilled or are drilling by the collars etc seen by public satellite for free. One will need the co-ordinates etc to do so. That way, one can tell HOW FAST THEY ARE WORKING etc and how many holes thus far.
Please remember, I have limited data as it is public info and therefore, I am not privy to Bird's inner figures of how much, how he will play the subtle games etc. Thus far, Mr Bird commended First Quantum ie they invited them for 3 days to see the details and they are not LAND BANKERS etc. So, with that in mind, read the DATA, FILL IN , CORRECT A/C TO ONE'S OWN VIEW. Right view, right outcome, wrong view, wrong outcome for self
Cyberiachas: That is what I heard from Jack Dann, Geologist at POW who was a guest yesterday on Sunday Roast to discuss FIRST QUANTUM'S -AFP RNS, 16 FEB 2024. Usually, I listen in the dead of the night. My ear plugs are the Japanese type ie tiny. I want to preserve my ear drums --I cant put the sound up w/o using ear plugs as I dont live in a mansion with 20 rooms on 20 acres. So, as I said, CHECK and listen as audio , one can hear wrongly as some words are swallowed. To me, I dont care as Dann said TENS OF MILLIONS, HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS taken to mean revenue as is understood in general. He didnt need to tell me -------MATHER sings the song so often that I hear it auto if Tier 1. DYOR. NIA.
Contd
Mr Bird said, it is NOT MR BIRD SAYING, IT IS FIRST QUANTUM. Any proof? Yes, the RNS states they have DRILLED both air core and diamond drilling, soil sampling, geophysics etc and from the latest RNS , they spent MORE THAN US$500,000 on each of the 4 licences [or that is what I understand, just in case I am pulled up for EACH or the whole lot. But logic says, $500k USD is a bit low if for all 4 licences over 2 years ie 22.1.22 -19.2.24].
--FIRST QUANTUM/AFP JV, 16 FEB 2024---
In mining world speak, folks would know that NO MAJOR [mkt cap in billions] WOULD SIGN AN OPTION STATING THEY WILL TAKE THE REMAINING 2 LICENCES [total 4] AND PREPARE A INDICATED RESOURCE STATEMENT ON 28 FEB 2026 [or by?]. So, where is the Mineral Resource Statement as norm [MRE]? There is NONE as it was not agreed to. But it is assumed that there is an INTERNAL MRE [Mineral Resource Estimate] given over 2 years of drilling , there has to be a COMPOSITE report [estimate]? WHAT IS FIRST QUANTUM GOING TO DO AFTER THIS? It is obvious that to get to INDICATED RESOURCE STATMENT, a lot more drilling has to be DONE, with closer space, in-filling etc and extensions.
SO, "TERRIFIC DISCOVERY -MAJOR DISCOVERY" per Mr Bird @Sunday Roast, 27.6.23 is the indicator and First Quantum's signing on 16.2.24 lends credence to it. IF THE PROJECT FELL SHORT of Tier 1 or close to, First Quantum MAY NOT HAVE SIGNED on 16.2.24 and RETURNED the project back to Mr Bird. Not useless but NOT BIG ENOUGH for a major. POTENTIAL STRIKE 30KM but if one looks at the presentation from AFP Mar 2023, it is more than 30km. That is DISTRICT SCALE.
If less than Tier 1 or close to Tier 1, Bird will have to interest a smaller player.
COMMERICIAL ACUMEN:
On 1 of Bird's stock forums, one said that oh, AFP will get 20% etc. NO, DONT THINK SO. JACK DANN, GEO AT POW , DISCUSSED AFP/FIRST QUANTUM AND SAID FIRST QUANTUM GETS 51% -------------AFP 49%.--------. That's a Geo/s view.
Why? Do not forget Bird's AFP does not own 100% of NW ZAMBIA 4 LICENCES -Lemon Consultancy owns the other remaining %. BIRD HAS SOME 10.7% STAKE IN AFP =£700k+ SO, WITHOUT HAVING TO SPELL IT OUT, JACK DANN, GEO does not think anyone with a biz brain would be sitting to wait for 20% crumbs. ========AS SOON AS THE INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCE STATMENT COMES OUT 28 FEB 2024 [or before?]======= B I N G O ---------TA TA, WE WANT TO SELL as it will show X, Y or Z TIER and if Tier 1, well, it will be like Kalumbila [Bird said better than Kalumbila, ie bigger]. Let's not get too greedy and say, a slight discount, even then, CANT BE LESS THAN KALUMBIA M & A [even price of copper rise further as expected by the industry].
I proffer no view of my own as that could be wrong but once the RNS came out from AFP on 16 Feb 2024, there was a rise of 16%. Today, the rise was 4.9% and I could SELL in 1 go. Yes, Cynus7, I have time and then END GAME has started once FIRST QUANTUM SIGNED ON THE DOTTED LINE ON 16 FEB 2024. Yes, in the nigh
Cynus7 2
Let me explain the "commercial shrewdness" of Mr Bird and his style. I didnt know until shareholders returned from the Bushranger AGM. Mr Bird explained that to DRILL further, it would require $8m [or £8m] which is a lot of money that they didnt have at the time. Clever or not? I say clever because Bushrangers is a very large acreage and the anomalies potentially as many as perhaps more than 10 from historical data. BUT, THE DRILLING PROVED THE GEOPHYSICS etc and therefore, the BUYER is expected to be EXPERTS and Bushranger will be SOLD on the basis that the geophysics etc SHOWS MORE THAN WHAT WAS DRILLED by Bird. Mr Bird himself said LEAVE SOME on the table for the buyer. Bird is also aware that Bushrangers, if like CADIA-RIDGEWAY, there is more to drill and deeper. I QUOTE MR BIRD IN HIS INTERVIEW: "[1] THERE IS INTEREST. [2] BUSHRANGER WILL BE A MINE. IT IS AN ACE." What is an ace? In card playing, it is a contingent card. What is there is interest? Code: NOT SELLING CHEAP ie for buttons? Many are not cognisant, the industry does not work on CURRENT copper price but rather on Bird's twitter, he stated that majors are working on 2025 prices for deals. You will recall Bird said he is not selling for less than 10p. Well, he may have to lower his expectations a bit since the market is rather weak. Hence, Bird sold MANICA for some $17m region but in the past, the sale price was $20m. Wasnt that an ace? How he managed to GET $17M at this time in Mozm is a wonder. The next anger is that Bushranger's grade is 0.22% cu and fell short. That happens oft times given in Oz, the grades are not high and around the immediate vicinity esp gold did not turn up to lift CuEq .But many of the wkly reported drills are also for 0.2% copper provided the intersections are LONG. But folks want instant riches now. That can only come with TIER 1 re-rating. Bird's Kiwara @ Kalumbila was also SHORT at 0.45% cu copper @800Mt. Same grumble from what I gather and it was silent for some time, until one morning First Quantum bought it for US$260m. In those days, it has to be at least 0.5% and Lawerence said 1% [copper & gold equivalent ideally to attract a major]. First Quantum even developed PANAMA COBRE in Panama jungles with 0.1% cu copper but it is surface. The capex was some $10bn from overruns but this is from recall.
Even $2bn is hard to raise, never mind $7bn and upwards. So, this is the forte of First Quantum to squeeze it into a Tier 1 as they did with Bird's Kiwara @Kalumbila and FREE NICKEL thrown in next to Kalumbila, Zambia. This must be explained as you mentioned folks are upset about that. I cannot GUARANTEE that will be the case as I am not privy to Bird's convo with potential buyers etc.
AFRICAN PIONEER JV WITH FIRST QUANTUM:
Firstly, there is NO MINERAL RESOURCE STATEMENT in the AGREEMENT of 22.1.22 asked for or agreed to be produced by First Quantum. Why not? IT COST MONEY TO ROUND UP ALL THE NO'S FROM THE DRILLS THUS FAR. Mr Bird sai
Looks like my previous post disappeared, but i'm pretty sure its 300mt across all licenses, not each one, for FQ to reach the next shareholding level. Roast hosts said this specifically. If theres an RNS out there that says different please share.
News: it often seems the way that small companies are not rated at the level that sh believe they should be. Almost always seems the way. But I always think that these are the company's that value seekers should be searching out. These are the companies that go hidden because others have not heard about them. Even companies that have money 'incoming' such as Xtract suffer in the same way. Some say it's the CB effect but that seems to be due to the disappointement of the Bushranger project. Fact is, if one of the companies in NW Zambia hit it big, especially if it's a CB company them everybody will move into all of the companies camped out in this corner of Africa and your foresight will be repaid. Don't complain, load up if you believe that the usual obstacles can be hurdled. DYOR (not an issue in your case - lol)
Contd:
Once a Maiden Resource Statement is issued, a/c to Mather, he said that any project can be sold even before that stage. So, with a discovery here at AFP [not just A discovery but "terrific and major discovery" per Mr Colin Bird's Chairman's own words in an interview on 27.6.23 @Sunday Roast], how can it possibly be that the AFP MKT CAP IS STILL AT NO PROGRESS, as if First Quantum never JV'ed or has now ENTERED THE 1ST OPTION PERIOD to provide a INDICATED RESOURCE STATEMENT BY [or on] 28 FEB 2026.
Well, no one has ever seen anything like it on AIM and dont say its only me , but JACK DANN, A GEOLOGIST AT POW is amazed and puzzled.
WELL, IF THIS AFP NW ZAMBIA PROJECT GOES TO 28 FEB 2026, THEN FIRST QUANTUM WILL BE GIVEN 1ST OPTION TO BUY PER THE ---------AFP/FIRST QUANTUM ------------AGREEMENT SIGNED 22.1.22.
Mather said any Tier 1 could re-rate to $1bn and he showed the charts to prove it. Even ARS CEO said so. Robert Friedland who down the road at DRC decided to JV his KAMOA-Kakula and the Chinese paid out some $450MILLION for just under 50% stake from recall [give and take around this region]. So, project was valued at a gross $1bn. Mr Bird himself said $1bn OFFER WAS REJECTED but I dont know which project he is referring to in Zambia. Mr Bird also tells shareholders that DRC OF WESTERN FORELAND TREND and NW Zambia is separated by a man made border & many majors now think the WESTERN FORELAND TREND FROM DRC OF KAMOA , KITKOTO FAME COMES DOWN TO NW ZAMBIA.
AFP-FIRST QUANTUM
1 licence SITS on the WESTERN FORLAND TREND CONGLOMERATE. This licence First Quantum took 1st time including South of this conglomerate licence initially [2]. ANGLO AMERICAN IS ABOUT TO START DRILLING AT NW ZAMBIA and one of their licences [JV] sits NEXT DOOR to AFP/FIRST QUANTUM ie South of the conglomerate.
KOBALD SET THE FIRE AS THEY DRILLED NW ZAMBIA, WESTERN FORELAND TREND AND FOUND THE BIGGEST COPPER STRIKE. That is why the majors like Anglo and Rio are also nearby.
AFP/FIRST QUANTUM JV is 80-100km from the KIWARA KILUMBILA [Bird's sale to First Quantum for US$260m].
In the meantime, AFP is so quiet ----so not sure what is going on.? DYOR. NIA.
Cygnus7: Yes, I am sorry for the repetitiveness in 1 or 2 of the postings in today's post. Why? I find it strange that upon a "TERRIFIC DISCOVERY & MAJOR DISCOVERY" at NW Zambia which the Chairman of AFP stated on 7 June 2024 @Sunday Roast , there has been no re-rating of any substantial amount as norm. Even Jack Dann, Geologist at POW interviewed yesterday, was rather surprised at a JV with a major & yet AFP mkt cap at £4m which is usually considered a SHELL MKT CAP without too much progress. Solgold for example started at £8m mkt cap BEFORE drilling even started at Cascabel and the same with GGP at Havieron and GGP was far higher than £8m mkt cap from recall [historical examples].
First Quantum JV with AFP was signed on 22 Jan 2022, so 2 YEARS OF DRILLING spending >£1.6 million as at 23 Oct 2023 AFP RNS. Every exploration co CEO has said that UNLESS there is POSITIVE DRILLING RESULTS, there will be NO FURTHER DRILLING --why?----the funders will NOT lend without good results. £1.6m [even if it is US$1.6m although in the latest 16.2.24 AFP RNS, it was said >$500,000 was spent on each licence [4?]. That is a LOT of money for drilling - EEE spent A$500k each campaign to drill some 21 holes at Pitfield & recent 40 holes [historical example] .
At Solgold, Dr Rohlach said that 23 holes drilled will be sufficient to bring out a MAIDEN MINERAL RESOURCE STATEMENT . NEWCREST invested in Solgold after several holes and BHP entered at the 14th hole at Cascabel. At GGP, interest started after 5 -8 holes from recall. This is all historical PROVIDED the junior are targeting a potential Tier 1 target.
Now that FIRST QUANTUM has now taken up all 4 licences [2 only earlier] on Fri, 16 Feb 2024, it means FIRST OPTION PERIOD KICKED IN OFFICIALLY and FIRST QUANTUM must produce a INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCE on 28 Feb 2026 [300,000 tonnes a year for each of the 4 licences].
---"TERRIFIC AND MAJOR DISCOVERY"-Colin Bird's verbatim interview, 27 June 2023@Sunday Roast.--
So, today, I had to do 2 NEW POSTS to extract the data on First Quantum's spend and from the AFP's only presentation of Mar 2023 giving the details of the drilling results in outline and POTENTIAL STRIKE of 30-35KM and ======POTENTIAL TARGET IS 1BN TONNES [of rock] WHICH IN THE INDUSTRY IS CLASSED AS POTENTIAL TIER 1. If not potential Tier 1, NO MAJOR WILL BE INTERESTED. For ref, Mr Bird sold KILUMBILA @KIWARA PLC FOR US$260M AT THE SAMW NW ZAMBIA TO FIRST QUANTUM and the tonnage was around 800M + range and the grade was around 0.45% copper.
So, Mr Bird is not on this forum, so I had to provide data to show why there has been a "MAJOR DISCOVERY"?
From the drilling, most projects if owned 100% or 80% would have to show a MAIDEN RESOURCE STATEMENT. And Mr Bird yesterday re-tweeted a old 24.10 2022 tweet of his that "INITIAL PROGNOSIS IS THAT ITS BETTER THAN KALUMBILA WAS" [Interview with Sunday Roast].
Today, Mr Bird tweeted typed :"ONGOMBO COPPER PROJECT MOVING FROM EXPL
Yes News: I can't fault you on using references. It just seems rather long winded and I may be wrong but there appears to be a certain amount of repetativeness. Having said that I am more than happy for you to continue in your own particular style and will read your missives as they appear. Thanks.
I note that there are 5 posts on AFR but I can only see my own 3 or 2.
However, I saw a line passing on the side.
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT:
The share price of AFP rose 16% on the AFP RNS, Fri, 16 Sep 2024 as First Quantum has now taken all 4 licences at NW Zambia [earlier only took 2]. Currently, the shares are up +4.09% which is considered in the stock market as a "re-rating" of the JV given AFP's mkt cap is £4m.
POSTERS
I read 10 pages at least of this forum but many of the Colin Bird. Chairman, AFP 's interviews were not posted which described the NW Zambia discovery with First Quantum. However, when I posted articles ie 2 about the 16 Feb 2024, 2 posters wanted the link to it as it was perhaps faulty. Then, there is NO complaint about Jack Dann's Geo's interview yesterday about AFP-First Quantum's JV from the Sunday Roast interview, 18.2.24. AGAIN, NO ONE POSTED and if they did hear, no one is posting any info on external views of the JV AFP-FQ. In fact, on another forum of Mr Bird's co, one said that the JV is for 300,000 tonnes and woolly but Jack Dann, a Geologist with POW said it is 300,000 FOR EACH OF THE 4 LICENCES, not 1.
MY STYLE:
Some may not like it but it is of an ACADEMIC style wherein I post CITATIONS, REFERENCES to what I am talking about. When I read this forum over the past couple of weeks, it would appear that none mentioned that Mr Bird , Chairman of AFP stated that it is a "TERRIFIC DISCOVERY, A MAJOR DISCOVERY" at NW Zambia with First Quantum. I dont know why it was not shared. So, I make no apologises for SHARING what is FACT and the AFP RNS/s otherwise, no one knows what the DRILLING BOTH AIR CORE AND DIAMOND DRILLING SHOWED nor APF's TARGET SIZE : 1BN TONNES.
So, my explanation. I only posted for a few days. I was already here but did not post given I read the postings but did not find the relevant. Where the relevant link was posted, it was the shortened version , and some links of interviews with Mr Bird was hard to find. WHY IS THE DISCOVERY NOT POSTED HERE OR DID I MISS IT?
I dont know but I am posting ----Yes, I can SUMMARISE and post, AFP discovery BUT BASED ON WHAT, WHO SAID IT AND FROM WHICH RNS OR THE CHAIRMAN. In many quarters, it could be seen as just without BASIS? So, I post with the REFERENCES TO CHECK and not what I say.
News, Mon 19.2.24
Contd
KAMOA STYLE MINERALISATION on WESTERN FORELANDS.
-COLIN BIRD, CHAIRMAN, AFP, 23 OCT 2023 RNS:-
The option period had extended to 17 Jan 2024 for FQ : "wish to complete SUFFICIENT WORK to DECIDE on the PROSPECTIVITY of the other 2 licences. Option period SUCCESSFUL for AFP & FQ with the ====//WESTERN FORELANDS & KAMOA STYLE MINERALISING environment BEING ESTABLISHED//=== as well as ==//NEAR SURFACE MINERALISING fold/thrust -===FURTHER TO THE EAST===on our licences.//
We are particularly eager & excited to see the OUTCOME of current TURACO drilling===GIVEN THE BROAD INTERCEPTS REPORTED AT SHALLOW LEVELS DURING THE 2022 program."
---INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCE, 28 FEB 2026-[AFP -FQ OPTION PERIOD TO EARN 51%]--
There have been a lot of AFP RNS's since 22 Jan 2022 and lots of details about drilling etc. Yesterday, Sunday Roast interviewed JACK DANN, GEOLOGIST at POW to talk about AFP/FQ and the details I have cited yesterday. Dann informs that the 300,000 tonnes are for EACH OF THE LICENCES [4] and that REVENUE is into TENS & HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS.
COLIN BIRD INTERVIEWS:
[1] "INITIAL PROGNOSIS IS BETTER THAN KALUMBILA."-24 Oct 2022, Sunday Roast.[Mr Bird re-tweeted this yesterday, Sun 18.2.24]
[2] "ABSOLUTELY TERRIFIC --==D I S C O V E R Y, =MAJOR DISCOVERY."-Sunday Roast, Season 5, Ep 64, 7 June 2023.
[3] "MUCH BIGGER THAN KALUMBILA."-SO6_13 Midweek Takeaway with Colin Bird, 3 mths ago. [Sunday Roast]
[4] "SUNDAY ROAST FEATURING JACK DANN, GEOLOGIST @POW talking about AFP/FIRST QUANTUM JV. 18.2.24.
---------------KALUMBILA WAS SOLD BY MR BIRD AT KIWARA PLC FOR US$260M TO FIRST QUANTUM--
First Quantum went on to develop Kalumbila into the world's 14 largest copper mine and largest in Africa.
Kalumbila , NW ZAMIBIA is about 80-100km from the current AFP 4 licences JV'ed with First Quantum.
----AFP SALE OF 4 LICENCES ?---
Under the agreement with FQ, AFP CAN SELL the 4 NW licences but 1st right of refusal given to FQ.
Jack Dann made the point that AFP WILL OWN 49% OF JV [FQ 51% at 1st Earn in, INDICATED RESOURCE MINERAL REPORT.]
AFP PRESENTATION, MAR 2023:
"PHASE 1 DRILLING COMPLETE.
LARGE ANOMALIES DELINEATED.
30KM STRIKE LENGTH.
Phase 2 drilling planned.
Shallow drilling peak up to 3% cu copper.
Near surface intercepts 0.5% & 0.75% cu copper over>50m.
Combined target strike length 45Km.
Immediate neighbours: Rio, FQ & Anglo.
Percussion drilling over 3 licences/AFP.
KAMOA to N.ZAMBIA expected to produce SEVERAL TIER 1 DISCOVERIES, copper/cobalt.
FQ delivered multiple LARGE near surface copper in soil targets with good CONTINUITY.
Another LARGE anomaly delineated.
7 near or at surface cu copper in soil targets identified.
-----TARGETING NEAR SURFACE >1 BILLION TONNES @ >0.5% cu copper [+CO COBALT]."
---------------------SIGNING OF OPTION PERIOD FOR ALL 4 LICENCES AFP -FIRST QUANTUM.-----------
dated Fri, 16 Feb 2024. Shares of AFP rose 16% as reported in the press on this RNS.