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Well the pace of AFP’s progress in Zambia depends on First Quantum, not Colin. And FQ are not slow. Speaking of them, we’re in the zone for a Zambia quarterly update in the next few weeks, I’d have thought
Unfortunately Colin makes it easy to become uninterested in his companies as they all move at a glacial pace.
Zero interest here atm. Hopefully a productive meeting this morning. We need news!!
Who is going to the AGM on Friday?
I'm quite interested in the new TR1 holder John Swann. He bought in a substantial stake at the raise and he's got a couple of other big holdings. Clearly he sees some significant upside, wonder if anyone knows anything else about him?
Technology Minerals Plc (TM1)
(Specialty Mining & Metals ) 102,875,000 6.80% 2,288,969 USD
Tern Plc (TERN)
(Investment Management & Fund Operators) 19,650,363 5.04% 1,061,709 USD
African Pioneer PLC (AFP)
(Specialty Mining & Metals ) 13,333,334 6.96% 364,400 USD
Looks like the MMs have shut this down completely. Who in their right mind is going to buy shares at 2.49p when the sell price is only 2.22p?. Stupid spread atm. We need some sellers to bring the bid down to a sensible level..
The MMs are hardly encouraging any trades here atm with a spread of 2.4920p to buy and 2.2222p to sell...
Little buying flurry this morning
Jump in the ask & bid on very small trades this morning. Now 2.396p to buy and 2.22p to sell. Road to recovery in the SP after the Placing underway? This would be a good time for CB to release a positive update on the projects....
Good point PD! Lets hope recent progress across the projects is maintained...
Whilst true remember there are FQM and Sandfire backing and making great progress at AFP. The market cap should never be down here. Out of all his companies this is the most promising and I think is a serious multibagger.
I agree that CB does spread himself rather thinly across a number of companies. In terms of potential the assets here could turn out to be the most lucrative of them all imo
Everything is far too slow across all projects run by Bird across several companies.
The potential here is huge but he does need to get on with things in Namibia.
SP hit 3.25p a short while back following a flurry of news from the projects in Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia. It was the 'fear' of the (discounted) Placing that took the SP back down to 2p. In terms of the assets nothing has changed and I'm sure a lot of work has been going on behind the scenes and expect updates in the near future...
Yup, moves on very little volume. One positive update of majors financing and we'll get to 5p without much problem. Even at 5p its so undervalued its fkin crazy!
Potentially very significant assets and the fund raise out the way. Only way is UP....
Something big about to happen!
New tr1 holder
Barrick on the lookout in Zambia
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-ceo-wants-search-more-copper-zambia-congo-2023-07-07/
Yes I totally agree . When I read up on the detail of the agreement I saw that we ended up with 25% of the 80% of the afp Zambia that we hold.
By that point tho it’s got to the point of project financing for a potentially huge mine.
Say it was big and high grade , say 2mt at 4% copper and proved up it has enormous value, 20% of which is also pretty enormous .
My thinking would be that FQ would want us out relatively early if it was heading in that direction.
PS. Another way of looking at the fact that our stake reduces to 20% on a decision to mine is that we will have gotten to that point with zero dilution of our own equity. If you imagine what it would look like for a £5m market cap company to get to the same point on its own, I would say that the shareholders would be diluted at least the same amount or more by the raising of the money to fund the costs of getting to a decision to mine. So there’s ultimately dilution either way. The massive benefit of our JV arrangement is we’re not taking any of the risk!
Cyber, you’re right that if we get to a decision to mine we’re going to be holding 20%. However, if First Quantum have decided to mine it we are in my view going to be looking at a project value of $1 billion or more - quite possibly much more. Another possibility is FQ find a good copper deposit but not big enough for them. In that case, the project will be worth less but our interest will be greater. Either way, I’m very comfortable that if a viable discovery is made we will be in line for a massive profit here
Had a look at that twitter thread metal head, a good analysis of what we have, thanks
As you point out Ongombo on its own will provide multiples of the current market cap and we are now funded to get it going.
The Zambia western foreland is anyone’s guess for the upside but First Quantum are very busy on our licenses and they wouldn’t be doing that for fun. Our interest does drop as they progress to the point of being able to plan and build a mine but I’m sure they would want rid of us a lot sooner should they believe they have a whopping resource on their hands.
Another small top up for me today, nothing huge but looking to try and accumulate a few over time before it hits the radar
Decent thread MH. Cheers. This has gone into my buy low as you can and forget about section of my account lol. It’s got 3 good chances of something transformational happening.. which is more than many micro caps. Let’s see what happens this year now they’ve funded.