The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Was listening to Jazz Shapers this morning (repeated at 5am, Monday morning), and they did an interesting interview with Charlie Jardine. What I found interesting was his insights into the sector, the advantages of first-mover advantage, and competition issues in the sector. To me, it shows why the pioneering work in this sector is subject to risk, huge rewards, and lots of 'tactical' gaming, as an extension of competition from within the green sector, and from the competitors of the green sector. Charlie also talked about not going to market before your product is ready, and within the context of AFC, I read this as meaning it is vital to engage partners in the development of product. This is exactly what AFC have been doing, but it does take time, and the market has to develop. The rewards of a long term view (ten year), ought to be massive for the successful companies, which I hope include AFC.
Anyway, I suggest giving it a listen. Link below.
https://planetradio.co.uk/podcasts/jazz-shapers/
Occasionally,
AFC is not a 'ten year view company', it has stack mass manufacturing signed off, it will soon have mass system assembly signed off in, as a minimum IMVHO Europe, USA/Canada and MENA with TAMGO. It is going global because it knows it has the products that are in demand today, and it does not want to miss that opportunity to be one of the first movers to scale up and cut costs to the bone, as they know that will massively multiply demand for the products over the already high demand.
If you took a ten year view you'd be very lucky if the company wasn't acquired within 5 years.
If you took a ten year view you would miss the huge growth over the coming 18 months.
If you took a ten year view you would miss AFC realising the huge upside from the Ammonia Cracker sometime over the next 12 months.
I'd take a two year view of AFC and in two years time re-evaluate on whether to stick or cash in.
I have taken a ten year view, but in my post, didn't say how long that view began.
In commenting about the interview, I was pointing to the importance of long term views - rather than saying they start now.
The long-term perspective and insight from the CEO shows exactly as to why AFC have been vulnerable to attacks from both shorters and competitors alike. Hopefully, we'll be rid of them soon, but it has to be said, shorting / trading has been a successful strategy with this share. My view is the same as your's. The shorters will go soon, but they have been rewarded over a long term, due to the share's vulnerability caused by sector development issues.
GLALTH. Shorters / traders - time to find a different share to spend your wretched days trashing.
Like the last 10 years you clown, I am already here much longer and in 5 years you’ll tell people again a 10 year company and to who else sprouts BS, the company is vulnerable because of in incompetend BOD and IR / PR
Das ist auch meine Meinung , ich halte meine Aktien und kaufe jeden Monat neue Aktien dazu. Ich Stocke Aktien auf in meinem Depot.
Das schöne sind die Aussichten von AFC Energy, die noch nie besser waren.
Und die Händler auf Shortpostionen kaufen müssen. Also die müssen kaufen, es gibt keine andere Möglichkeit.
Ich brauch nur warten und immer paar Aktien mehr kaufen. :-)
Ich Danke euch jetzt schon. :-)
Ich habe eine Zehn-Jahres-Perspektive vertreten, aber in meinem Beitrag habe ich nicht gesagt, wie lange diese Perspektive begann.
Als ich das Interview kommentierte, wies ich auf die Bedeutung langfristiger Ansichten hin – anstatt zu sagen, dass sie jetzt beginnen.
Die langfristige Perspektive und die Erkenntnisse des CEO zeigen genau, warum AFC anfällig für Angriffe sowohl von Short-Anbietern als auch von Konkurrenten war. Hoffentlich sind wir sie bald los, aber es muss gesagt werden, dass Shorting/Trading bei dieser Aktie eine erfolgreiche Strategie war. Meine Ansicht ist die gleiche wie Ihre. Die Leerverkäufer werden bald verschwinden, aber sie haben sich auf lange Sicht aufgrund der Anfälligkeit der Aktie aufgrund von Problemen bei der Sektorentwicklung belohnt.
GLALTH. Shorter/Händler – es ist an der Zeit, eine andere Aktie zu finden, mit der Sie Ihre elenden Tage mit Schrott verbringen können.
Ist doch keine schlechte Taktik.
Just a serious tip, if you look for a higher return then with AFC over a 10 years period, better talk to your bank for a good rate if you keep your money on the account, at least as long as this BOD runs the company and Clowns like Stockbscheckbs write their ramps here
The thing is DW is that this time Bond has finally run out of places to hide now, he has to deliver. Too much has been placed on the Speedy JV and the £27m order book for it to go T up.
Daz even that I have heard the last 5 years a few times , you too and I remember a bunch here now digging into AB‘s @ss a few years ago predicting 2 pounds , 5 and even 10 pounds within 2-3 years, I was warning not to overspe glare back that time and was also complained at that time - lol
Blimey Derek, you really are one of the most bland, tedious and boring men on the planet. Try saying something constructive.
I feel like topping myself whenever he posts. Really is one for the filter to stop the joy being sacked out of you
He's spent far too much time sniffing the bog bleach he sells, he never read the hazard warnings on the bottles so what's left of his brain cells are totally mangled. Couple that with his solitary confinement for the safety of others and it's a recipe for something horrific, the kind of evil tormentor you find in the most horrific movies.
Getting back to the interview, I think the CEO points out the key factors in an immature market. Uncertainty about the direction / final design of green products, competitive factors, first-mover advantage, and investment indecision from customers who don't want to invest in a solution that turns out to be Betamax. Add the uncertainties brought about by the Pandemic, and there's certainly enough to power shorting attacks in the wider Sector, as well as individual companies like AFC.
To me, the key question is whether the evidence points towards a firmer direction. For hydrogen, this is a firmer bet. For determining the focus of AFC's market, its taking shape. For converting obvious strong interest into sales, there is more hope than ever before, and increasingly high chance that the company have found the right product in the building sector (which is great). Significant sales will transform the outlook. It remains to be seen whether a wider market for the company's products will develop. But let's be clear. Cutting new ground is never easy, and this can harder in a hostile (oil-driven) economy. In the end, it will come down to getting a foothold in one sector, and branching out.
As I have said before, it is, and has been, a risky investment, and these risks have been ruthlessly exploited by shorters and traders. But they are objectively fewer. If AFC make the significant sales, they will be well positioned to spread out into other sectors. A key driver of that spread will be scaled adoption of new green tech by large companies, but there is every reason to expect this to be sectoral, and to take a few years. But as part of a balanced portfolio, owning AFC now, and accumulating on any dip, should be rewarding.
Please don't respond if you have not listened to the interview, because TBH, I've heard more than enough of the extensively repeated and somewhat puerile commentary on here. Think we all deserve better.
Good post Occasionally.
Nearly had me fooled lol.