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This will not dip for long, and good luck to all who manage to catch it.
Getting back to the interview, I think the CEO points out the key factors in an immature market. Uncertainty about the direction / final design of green products, competitive factors, first-mover advantage, and investment indecision from customers who don't want to invest in a solution that turns out to be Betamax. Add the uncertainties brought about by the Pandemic, and there's certainly enough to power shorting attacks in the wider Sector, as well as individual companies like AFC.
To me, the key question is whether the evidence points towards a firmer direction. For hydrogen, this is a firmer bet. For determining the focus of AFC's market, its taking shape. For converting obvious strong interest into sales, there is more hope than ever before, and increasingly high chance that the company have found the right product in the building sector (which is great). Significant sales will transform the outlook. It remains to be seen whether a wider market for the company's products will develop. But let's be clear. Cutting new ground is never easy, and this can harder in a hostile (oil-driven) economy. In the end, it will come down to getting a foothold in one sector, and branching out.
As I have said before, it is, and has been, a risky investment, and these risks have been ruthlessly exploited by shorters and traders. But they are objectively fewer. If AFC make the significant sales, they will be well positioned to spread out into other sectors. A key driver of that spread will be scaled adoption of new green tech by large companies, but there is every reason to expect this to be sectoral, and to take a few years. But as part of a balanced portfolio, owning AFC now, and accumulating on any dip, should be rewarding.
Please don't respond if you have not listened to the interview, because TBH, I've heard more than enough of the extensively repeated and somewhat puerile commentary on here. Think we all deserve better.
I have taken a ten year view, but in my post, didn't say how long that view began.
In commenting about the interview, I was pointing to the importance of long term views - rather than saying they start now.
The long-term perspective and insight from the CEO shows exactly as to why AFC have been vulnerable to attacks from both shorters and competitors alike. Hopefully, we'll be rid of them soon, but it has to be said, shorting / trading has been a successful strategy with this share. My view is the same as your's. The shorters will go soon, but they have been rewarded over a long term, due to the share's vulnerability caused by sector development issues.
GLALTH. Shorters / traders - time to find a different share to spend your wretched days trashing.
Was listening to Jazz Shapers this morning (repeated at 5am, Monday morning), and they did an interesting interview with Charlie Jardine. What I found interesting was his insights into the sector, the advantages of first-mover advantage, and competition issues in the sector. To me, it shows why the pioneering work in this sector is subject to risk, huge rewards, and lots of 'tactical' gaming, as an extension of competition from within the green sector, and from the competitors of the green sector. Charlie also talked about not going to market before your product is ready, and within the context of AFC, I read this as meaning it is vital to engage partners in the development of product. This is exactly what AFC have been doing, but it does take time, and the market has to develop. The rewards of a long term view (ten year), ought to be massive for the successful companies, which I hope include AFC.
Anyway, I suggest giving it a listen. Link below.
https://planetradio.co.uk/podcasts/jazz-shapers/
Really good to see this unit, and for Adam's update. Of course adjustments need to be made before the final product is marketed, and the fact that there are willing partners in this is very big. Not like its being developed in isolation.
Me thinks. Would explain why they don't go to AGMs, yet snipe on a daily basis.
Over and out.
My assumption is Common courtesy.
As a long term investor, who took the opportunity to double my holding when the share was at its low, six months ago, I'm quite happy with 1.25p per month. Its been a bit of an upward creep, but its clear to me that the fatalistic mood back then has declined. This has left those shorting the share (from the bottom) in a mess, and no doubt, they feel frustrated at the consequent losses.
I said a while back, that the opportunity to short green tech shares was based on the newness of various technologies, and while it hasn't been clear which would win out, there would be reluctance to order on a large scale. Fortunately, AFC's tech seems to be proving itself, and forming the basis for a breakthrough. I believe that the various developments in play currently are bound to produce something that transforms the game for AFC. It could be argued that the transformation is underway, with the multiple, real deployments, and end-stage testing. Some of this has been completed. The chances of orders are objectively higher than ever before, and conversely, the chances of shorters being hurt badly have increased too.
With the share's 50 DMA having crossed the 200 DMA almost two weeks ago, the risks are upside, not downside. Looking back over the history of this share, when this cross occurs and lasts for more than four weeks its price remains on an steep upward path for months. In my view, the next two weeks will be interesting.
Good luck all long term holders, and those who intend to become so.
Shorters: your risks are increasing, and I hope you're forced away from your vulture-like habits. There are easier, and more rewarding ways to make money.
I find it interesting that the company put time in to videoing the development of this site at different project stages. While it clearly benefits the fitter more, it signals that they want to be associated with a company like AFC. It is also positive for AFC's image.
Thanks, Klunk for posting.
I agree. That gap on the daily has filled. I'm not a full on TA person, but know that many traders will have tried to get a long fill at that price, and shorters will have held on until that gap was hit (circa 14.8p).
A very rich Yorkshire person I know (but didn't like), said something once, which I think applies here. He said "buy when they're on the floor". When I look at the fortunes of AFC (whom I've held for 8 years or so (accumulating and sometimes trading between 3.7p, and 55p), the risks have become clearer over the time, and much of them, AB couldn't really do anything about (except continue developing solutions, surviving, and achieving market penetration). All LTHers are waiting for the third of these to fall into place, but Friday's announcement puts the company close to it.
The first sales of AFC's products will have a huge impact on the share price, and the risk is firmly on the short side.
This is a complete turnaround from previous years. Buyers of new equipment have been wanting to see which technology is effective, and which wins out. To some extent, they may not have been willing to be the first to make major investments when green technology is in its infancy. But AFT have made it through, and their tested products are now to be marketed by another company.
The fact that potential buyers of green technology equipment have needed to wait to see which technologies win through means that the dam is about to burst. Even if its not obvious to UKHMG, businesses and customers see the need for action. However, the wait has been a massive opportunity for shorters, as the situation enabled shorting attacks which have left the share price on its floor. Like a rubber band stretched too far, there will be a snap-back, and with further announcements soon (hopefully), the ruthless and cynical attack on AFC will vanish. This analysis also applies to other similar companies.
In terms of risk management, investing over a long period of time has mitigated the risks. This has always been a long term play, and I'm confident that the bottom is in. Buy on dips, and hold tight. Perhaps top-slice your original investment, and let it run for 3 further years.