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Only £500 but I couldn't resist adding on the dip 1.444 paid
Good to get rid of some of the short term investors here. They may come back again when the price falls as it probably will until the licence is handed over
" It occurred to me at the time that the real reason behind the meeting was for the TPDC to provide a status report on the PIpeline but also on the License position."
Worth noting that the License is for 25 years. In that time they are likely looking at various development options, issues around what happens if CH1 finds oil etc.
I don't think this was as operational a set of meetings as much as government ministers of the two countries making various commitments (albeit in private). Pure speculation on my part, but when the Energy Minister goes to Muscat I doubt his amour propre will be satisfied meeting just some managers.
You could call it a 'nice problem', having a resource of the possible that is being stated will slow things down. No one wants to get it wrong.
Nowhere to be seen on the blue days past or to come of course ;)
Obviously when the development licence drops the sp will bound onwards to 2p or more. Any pullback is a great chance to buy, although it won't last long and MM's are not going to give much away as they know 2p is coming.
6%lose already.where is buyer ?
Taking some profits from the recent rise would I think be sensible.
Seems to be a lot of selling today...
If u all think this will rise to 4p. why u not keep buy more than
Anything to satisfy his grudge !
Yep, the gruesome twosome on the tandem once again
Morning yoyo
Skyro boiler room busy already?
X-tr-mn-8
Yes, it seems odd that an environmental impact study is now a requirement.
If this is to be conducted properly, surely this should be done at the beginning of the process, and assess the impact of the entire proposal, not the pipeline alone?
So, either we are much further away from drilling than thought, or the environment study will be simply rubber-stamped. Whichever, more delays are likely, and drops in the SP almost inevitable.
How deep will be water tank?
Yes Ufufuo, if you consider the "optics" of the Development License approval, the TPDC could appear to be a little premature giving official approval of a License to develope Ntorya before the successful outcome of the Environmental Impact Study rubber stamps the building of a pipeline? It might be a "done deal" but due process may need to be seen to be done.
I think we will lose some of these gains until news, but I'm just holding through anyway
Me thinks peeps are looking for something to worry about.
Fair points Crusty. Between us I think we’ve covered all the reasons to be optimistic, plus some sensible notes of caution. All good.
All that you list below is indeed on the "agenda" for the next 12 months or so but, as I have expressed here for the last couple of days, this recent, strong and very welcome rise in the sp is seriously at risk if we do not get the Dev License announcement and get it soon. The momentum could reverse very quickly and I would hate for joyo's prediction of 1p by next Friday to be proven correct!! ;0)
Seriously though, after the trip by the TPDC to see ARA and AEX in Muscat it seems strange that there was no direct mention of the License at that meeting, or at least, no official reference to it. It occurred to me at the time that the real reason behind the meeting was for the TPDC to provide a status report on the PIpeline but also on the License position.
What do we know? That without a pipeline the Dev License cannot be "executed", that a Tender for pipeline construction is expected to be issued in July but only after the outcome of the Environmental Impact Study. The implication is that the pipeline construction is contingent on the outcome of that study, so maybe they TPDC cannot "officially" notify ARA and AEX of the approval of the License until after successful completion of the Environmental Impact Study?
If so we might yet have some time to wait and, as I suggested last week, if we have to wait any significant length of time for it, the sp will suffer.
Not so much a worrier but the Development Licence was promised very soon in an Aminex RNS on 10th January this year. I've been here for a long time and have seen the pattern of rises in the sp followed by lack of news resulting in the sp drifting down again. There are lots of positives this year - you only need to look at the RNSs all I've wanted for this company and have said it many, many times is for it to get all the things required to get the drilling started and operate as a normal oil and gas company. These things I am sure will happen but again based on past experience there will still be delays and this continues to be the case.
Atb,
Northern
You are quite the worrier aren’t you Northern!? 😉
It appears the recent rise reflects confidence from the market that the licence is approved & will be issued in due course. The commitment to current deadlines by TPDC at their recent trip to ARA in Oman gives further confidence of that.
Every day that passes makes it more likely that news will drop the next day - these days, we don’t tend to wait too long between updates!
TPDC have committed to ‘no later than mid-2025’ for production. With land secured, detailed engineering design done, budget in place & tender about to go out for construction, that appears a very credible deadline.
ARA will now need to show they will meet their side of the bargain. The plan is to produce from NT1, NT2 and CH1 from the start.They will want to be sure they are ready & will presumably want some contingency.
That means they have 12 months or less to:
1. Confirm rig contract
2. Prepare CH1 pad
3. Transport rig to CH1 site
4. Mobilise rig
5. Drill CH1 including testing
6. Demobilise rig
7. Transport to NT1 site
8. Mobilise rig
9. Complete NT1 workover
10. Demobilise rig
11. Complete ARA scope of work for preparing the 3 wells for hook up to the pipeline
All of that means the license must be very soon…and rig contract needs to be sorted very soon after that!
They gave a positive & detailed update at the last AGM and I expect this year will be no different- 6 weeks away.
The CPR has also been in progress for a while now & should be another share price catalyst.
Remember, they’ve been getting stuff done. Approved Field Development Plan. Approved GSA. Dev License approved too - awaiting issue. Not just paperwork either: Completing the largest onshore 3D seismic ever in East Africa was no small feat!
Also, Aminex remains significantly undervalued + cash & financial measures to safeguard against shareholder dilution + our free carry for field development costs up to $140m (gross) + Ruvuma being a multi TCF world class giant + route to market being sorted & strong demand + well capitalised & experienced operator + 5 or more wells to be drilled after CH1 & NT1 are sorted + over $100m unspent tax losses & monies to come back to Aminex as repayment of ~$90m loan to Ndovu, which will combine to give years of extraordinary profitability + Aminex’s stockbroker forecast of $25m to $45m Free Cash Flow (FCF) per annum for Aminex at production plateau + new PR company, so comms no longer an issue + small scale LNG plant seemingly to be linked to Ntorya + large amount of very profitable condensate expected (those last two both on top of those FCF figures) + supportive government + pipelines planned to Uganda, Kenya, Zambia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi & the Democratic Republic of Congo.
I’m sure I’ve missed some things but I think the story - & our current position, on the cusp of a wave of material news & operational activity - should give the share price support before
Does that mean a RNS this Monday or Tuesday.
It will be an interesting finish to the week. Could go either way, either settle at these prices or really take off! GLA tomorrow and Friday will give a good indication.
The thing I like most about current share price here is we are still in warm up exercises phase !
Every day has a description except this weekend. Here is what is happening Friday and Monday, nothing that goes through the weekend, both are for 1 day only.
5. FRIDAY
17/05/2024
(i) Questions
(i) BUDGET SPEECH OF THE MINISTRY OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, GENDER, WOMEN AND SPECIAL GROUPS
1 day
6. MONDAY
20/05/2024
(i) Questions
(ii) BUDGET SPEECH OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND COOPERATION OF EAST AFRICA
1 day
Yes SC we read it earlier today - It wasn't very interesting then and it is no more so now.
As I said earlier whatever they may or may not be doing it would hardly involve the whole of the Parliament. What might they be doing? Presenting a Ntorya licence perhaps? Yes or maybe 100 other things instead.
As I said before, the Tanz Gov't ministers are all busy every weekday in Parliament going through budget speeches every weekday until end of June, so the only time to have the required one's available for a licence presentation ceremony in on a weekend. Which weekend is anyone's guess, but ARA say they have been told the licence delivery is 'imminent' which means one weekend soon, maybe this weekend even.
Here is something very odd. Perhaps a giveaway that something is happening this weekend.
In the latest updated Parliament schedule the weekends are marked 'MAPUMZIKO' which translates to 'rest' or days off apart from 8+9 June when they are working that weekend as shown in the schedule.
Strangely, this weekend is not marked in the schedule at all!!
The schedule goes from 17th to 20th with nothing marked in between. So they are not taking a rest, yet they are not working either, what could they be doing then? Presenting a Ntorya licence perhaps?
Here's a link to the Parliament schedule, updated on 13 May. It's possible to copy and paste the info into Google Translate, but for quick reference, BAJETI means budget, HOTUBA means speech, MAPUMZIKO are days off from Parliament:
https://www.parliament.go.tz/time-list/1