Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Tanz - your chum is applying mythical valuations to mythical estimates of gas reserves.
He hasn't got a clue what he's talking about.
and BG - I have no interest in trying to influence the SP, and in any case neither I nor anyone else here has any ability to influence. Just believe me. I was idly reading your historic posts, back in 2012 you were posting the same nonsense to Haggis who went under the name sueyou then. Best stick to fishing eh?
And even then they do not want it.
Perhaps they know that they would be wasting their time - it is no accident that ARA hold 29%
Tanz, if you want a simple calculation to show how far out the previous 'stab' was of $167 billion - at $3.2 per 1mcf (KN GSA) then 1TCF is $3.2 billion. Obviously that is a very simple calculation not factoring in many things over the 30 year period they are extracting the gas including taxation.
Well, it's a perfect opportunity for someone to take Aminex out for peanuts before drilling starts, and pick up a share of the 3Tcf of gas for nothing, with potential upside unrisked of 8Tcf.
2024 I think you mean BG? And yes am not surprised that is what you think/ believe, (I have a not too dissimilar view) but the stark reality BG is that, at this particular moment in time, "the market" does not seem to share your optimism. Either the risk element, the timeframe element, the political element, the lack of a GSA, the lack of a pipeline, lack of income, stasis on Nyuni/Kiiwani or perhaps a combination of all of these things (and more) mean that potential investors are not yet ready to make the jump and invest their (or their client's) money in AEX. And the current MC is a reflection of that reluctance.
It will come but there is a lot yet to do before the reduction in these uncertainties translates into an improvement in SP and MC.
Good night all.
Would be nice if the market actually valued the gas as Ntorya, rather than ignoring it.. opportunity for huge gains at this price.
Crusty, you are going to give yourself a headache, i think/believe they APT/ARA are, after a successful CH=1 drill will be to implementing a early production system (EPS) by the end of 2004, transforming AEX potential revenue and ability to fund future project.
The value of the "carry" will have been largely eroded by the time the FFD has been concluded hence it has little if any value at all unless that expenditure is converted into additional shareholder value. That additional value is an equation of the value of the gas in the ground and the costs, the risks, the timescales and the expectations of future income and converting that into LSD for shareholders; many of these factors are an unknown or uncertain quantity at present and will only become clear as time passes and many of those uncertainties become clearer. In the intervening period the "solution" as Tanzania puts it is almost impossible to quantify; consequently the current market cap represents a "proxy" of the market's collective assessment of that "equation".....
yes Tanzy, he never does, he doesn't engage in debate, he hopes or thinks his one liners is enough, to influence the sp.
Do notice, no solution provided by city trader RoJo or Math !
I doubt if he could add the three twos in his name and make six.
I think you need to work on your maths.
When for reasons I gave earlier it is actually worth between $400m as non producing gas in ground or $167bn applying current gas prices to the full amount as though you could sell it all at once.
The truth is somewhere in between those figures and in any event many multiples of the current mcap.
So the asset is currently valued at $0 then
Or put another way, $35m of credit is approx £27m. That's the value of the contract. Then there are future gas sales.
In short but BG seems to have it covered :)
$35 million carry to production and probably full field development as per the conditions of the farmout. 25% non operator of a huge resource that has already been drilled twice with both wells suspended for future production and the third CH1 to be drilled in 2022 as another potential producer.
A payment of $1.85 million owed for past gas sales is due to also be delivered next month providing cover for G&A.
FFD plan
http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/EGM%20Presentation%20Jan%202019_Final_long%20v1.pdf
Well i think the current mcap of £27m mcap will be perceived as being bonkers in about a years time. " APT's revised mapping and internal management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf (8,236 Bcf unrisked), in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf (5,419 Bcf unrisked)"
RNS 22 October 2021 (Ruvuma Operations Update)
"The Ruvuma JV has approved the 2022 work programme and budget which is designed to meet all work obligations under the terms of the licence extension previously announced on 18 August 2021, and further advance the appraisal and de-risking of the existing gas discovery on the licence."
"The work programme will concentrate on shooting 3D seismic on the licence area and drilling the Chikumbi-1 well. The associated project budget for the 2022 work programme is approximately US$25 million and under the Farm-Out agreement completed with ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") in October 2020, Aminex is fully carried for its 25% participating share of an estimated US$6.25 million".
"APT, the operator, has confirmed that mobilisation of the seismic team has commenced, and the first phase of the seismic shoot will begin on 15 November 2021. The team will then complete the second phase of the seismic shoot in Q1 2022 after the Tanzanian rainy season. The Chikumbi-1 well is expected to commence drilling in Q3 2022."
"The seismic acquisition and subsequent interpretation will seek to refine and confirm the exploitable gas resources of the Ntorya field. As previously announced, through a re-interpretation of the existing 2D seismic dataset, APT's revised mapping and internal management estimates suggest a mean risked gas in place ("GIIP") for the Ntorya accumulation of 3,024 Bcf (8,236 Bcf unrisked), in multiple lobes to be tested and a mean risked recoverable gas resource of 1,990 Bcf (5,419 Bcf unrisked)."
Aye up CP :)
All good here thanks.
Justify the current £27m mcap to me?
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/27/kenya-to-convert-oil-plants-to-lng-in-climate-friendly-grid-pus
"......Some thermal plants were designed to use heavy fuel oil and LNG, making it easy to switch, according to Kiva. Kenya expects to get gas from Tanzania once a planned pipeline is built. .."
Blimey bonkers, long time no see, hope all is well.
Carry to production here, possibly full field development, 3D starts 15th November this year with the drill second half next.
I'm interested - sell it to me please.
I have filtered RoJo for months but his frequency of posts is rather reassuring though I bet it’s the same old drivel
Looks like a reasonable time to buy into African gas.
Interesting read ahead of the UN climate change conference to be held in Glasgow in November
https://www.ippmedia.com/en/features%20natural%20gas-african-energy-landscape
Sorry not Tran Siberian Gold but Shanta Gold owed £20m in VAT by Tanzania
Tanzania has Trans-Siberian Gold and Petra Diamonds by the cojones as it did Barrick/Acacia. SImply listen to Adrian Reynolds on YouTube “how South Africa can unlock its exploration potential” about 4:30 in Tanzania ….