Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Last post: Neo_Angelo, 18 Jun 2024 19:25
As far as I'm aware not exactly, when rates go up it just means costs go up not neccessarily margins, insurance is a bit of a weird one in terms of how rates affect it.
With Admiral owning a lot of sub companies its got the option to lower and raise margins to compete with itself to get business. I couldn't tell you how it works completely but its an interesting read if you dig into it.
There's been a lot of discussion on the Hive around insurance firms recently, mostly Lgen and Phnx but admiral has cropped up a few times.
https://t. me/+R5joYzhzMi4yNTFk
Is it true that if interest rates go up, insurers make higher profits ?
Would appreciate opinions. I have no fixed view
Started: Colbats, 22 May 2024 13:48
Last post: Colbats, 22 May 2024 13:48
Sector set to be more profitable in the year ahead because it ‘is pricing much more effectively for costs they have to suffer’, says head of market intelligence
Average gross written premium (GWP) in the UK motor insurance market grew by 25% in 2023, reaching “a level not seen in recent memory” as insurers grappled with the ramifications of claims inflation.
This is according to the latest edition of business management consultancy Oxbow Partners’ Motor Market Report 2024, which is due to be published tomorrow (23 May 2024).
Last post: YamR1man, 22 May 2024 11:18
Steady increase so far today. Be interesting to see if 28 broken...or not, again.?
2 months ago I asked why can't this get above £28. Well, it did for a short time but that was it. Frustrating that it plods along below 28 again.
YAY. Keep going please
It's trying hard today......so far.
....oh when, is this gonna get past the 2800 mark ?
I suppose it's stagnating like most others because it's in the ftse100 . Boooorrriing
Last post: TheTrotsky, 8 Mar 2024 09:35
In insurance news today I note that Admiral is "calling time" on the recent premium increases which might have taken the edge off broker's future profit forecasts. I would imagine that other general insurers will have to fall into line in due course.
Dividend remains flat, so does the shareprice. While over at Aviva, dividend increases, so does the share price.
Why?
Results out today and dividends to be paid. What's not to like?
My best guess is staff have received their shares and want to cash them in straight away.
Good opportunity to top up maybe?
Started: katenip, 12 Feb 2024 19:14
Last post: katenip, 12 Feb 2024 19:15
Predictive text made the man a Marvell not a Mardell.
JLR’s foot in mouth from Adrian Marvell says it all…manufacturers do not make their vehicles adequately protected against theft and then get bolshie with everyone else because insuring against the nick- ability of their cars is putting off buyers…JLR tried their hand at car insurance and gave it up..it’s a specialist market needing experts not car salesmen…go, Admiral!
Started: stargate, 21 Nov 2023 12:43
Last post: moneybox007, 24 Jan 2024 12:35
More gobbledegook from Stargate.
I didn't go in to "great length" on the LGEN forum. I asked for people's opinions and recieved some wise words. In the end i sold 50% of LGEN and expect to exit completely soon.
I know when to buy and sell ADM thanks (a GBP 30k entry @ GBP 19.72 August '22 exit GBP 27.15 Dec '23 was particularly lovely) and I don't have "excessive focus" on them. GBP 55k in a GBP 605k portfolio so about 9%. A little high but manageable.
My region split is 50% USA, 35% UK and 15% other. Any problems with that oh wise one?
Like I said before, if tea leaf reading (sorry charting) worked you wouldn't spend one second on these boards. You'd spend 18 hours a day following dozens of stocks around the world and timimg your entry/exit to perfection. But it doesn't work so you don't do that.
Moneybox007, goes to great length on the LGEN, comment site to persuade other users, to ditch their FTSE100 equities, in favour of USA equities, in which he supposedly has investments, yet for some unknown reason, he got very angry, at my apparently "wrong" comment of 3/8/23, which I subsequently pointed out, would not have resulted in exit from the stock, if the simple mechanism of a stop order under the low price of 3/8/23, was actioned. It just seems out of proportion for a supposed large holder of USA stocks, to place what seems excessive focus on the UK equity ADM.
It is a pity, that you appear not to have knowledge of the use of stop orders . The chart for 3/8/23, clearly shows that a stop under that price low, would have kept anyone in ADM. Aside from which if you had followed the advice about the RSI(relative strength index), indicating the trend, you ought to have bought on the subsequent 8/8/23, when the RSI, crossed above 50. Apart from one brief dip below 50 in the subsequent months, you could have has another profitable buy entry when the RSI crossed above 50 again. Also the RSI, cross below 50, would have saved you from the most recent decline. I assumed that most judicious investors use stop orders, to cover for any eventuality, but maybe in your case my assumption was incorrect.
Stargate
Just go away with your lame predictions. On August 3rd you said it was going down to GBP 19.73 and it rose to GBP 24.90 over the next 4 weeks and on to GBP 28.01 by early December.
If you were making money from looking at tea leaves (sorry charting) why would you spend one second posting it here?
I sold at 27.50, put it in Bt at 1.29
Started: AL75, 21 Nov 2023 08:43
Last post: AL75, 21 Nov 2023 08:43
Breakout in August, 2 retests around 2361 and then higher from early/mid October. Today its price was helped by this, "Admiral Group Raised to Buy From Sell by Citigroup".
Started: OWLS, 10 Sep 2023 22:56
Last post: AbjectPerformer, 10 Nov 2023 05:15
I held
Wondering if I should sell this tomorrow and put funds into phnx ?
Glad I bought at 1750 and 1900 last year , so far.
I've invested here based on good positive momentum and a decent dividend.
Started: Gerry557, 17 Aug 2023 10:46
Last post: SmoothOperater, 18 Aug 2023 10:35
That's cleared that up, thanks I was wondering too.
3.18% or 4.34% with Special
https://dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-yield.py?epic=ADM
Im still struggling with what figures to use for its dividend yield. On past published figures including specials its 103p or 75p without the specials. Previously I was working on 78p based on a 1/3 2/3 split for earlier in the year but that hasn't worked out either.
I think I will use the 103p figure and hope it gets bettered and that specials continue
Most websites put it at 3.5% but mine are 4.38% or 3.2% without the specials
Started: PSB123, 25 Jul 2023 08:52
Last post: AbjectPerformer, 16 Aug 2023 23:04
I only have £950 in here, but bought at 1750 and reinvested my dividend. Onwards and upwards.
Nice £110k share purchase by the chair as soon as results are reported and closed period lifted to boot
Very very ADMIRABLE results and share price racing ahead.
Very pleasing results this morning reflected in the SP.
Key thing is the managed to grow profitability, total customers and return on equity in the very worst part of the cycle, the cycle has now turned and Admiral are ahead of the market having raised prices first. Very, very good place to be looking forwards
Down 116p
What's not to like?
Started: stargate, 3 Aug 2023 13:44
Last post: stargate, 3 Aug 2023 13:55
Correction, 1973, not 1910, for likely sp, trough.
Bear rally today into overhead supply relating to a higher price bottom, so expect rally to be overcome, and resume fall, to about 1910. Largely sideways pattern since sp, broke above major down trendline from 2021. Last peak somewhat higher than previous congestion, however , expect bottom about 1910, before uptrend can resume . RSI, is below 50, which provides confidence that sp, has not yet found its expected trough.
Started: YamR1man, 22 May 2023 16:56
Last post: jonathb, 20 Jul 2023 14:35
Well, one reason to go long on the UK insurance sector is that, following the thrashing they took a couple months back, all of them, in lock-step, have bumped their prems about 25% so nex qtr or so they might surprise on earnings. So a poor beleaguered Brit might get back a few pennies from his car insurance hike.
Cost push inflation for U.K. insurers over next few years terminal…..why would you bother with stock specific risk in dogshxt U.K. stocks when you can buy US treasuries 3 month T bills yielding 5.20pc risk free return. Even the brexit morons would understand that haha.
.... down again tomorrow because 23 is being kept the limit for some reason. ?
Last post: moneybox007, 6 Apr 2023 15:58
Sharepad who are usually 100% spot on have the f/c divi at 5.8& at a price of 2211 so well over 6% when you posted 3 weeks ago.
So I have decided to use the following figures for my ongoing dividend level forecast on my spreadsheet.
(37.5+14.5 = 52p) so 78p on 2 thirds annual split. This includes some special which could be cut or increase depending on how trading performs. Stripping out the specials would leave just 56.25p
So buying now would yield around just over 4% (or 3% without the specials)
Anyone want to convince me I have it wrong and should change those figures
Meconopsis, 52p is the total divi from the finals. So what is the annual???
if 37.5p is the final, then with a two thirds split, its 56.25 plus any special. So only an annual divi around 2.8% plus any special
@Gerry557 - not sure on the confusion, but 52p if you’re working out your yield.
It’s worth noting that the yield published by financial providers usually excludes special dividends - so they will tend to use the 37.5p number. This is because special dividends are usually used for on-off distributions of capital back to shareholders - such as when a company disposed of a business unit and has no use for the capital. Admiral, and some other companies, seem to use the approach of having a lower normal dividend that they aim to grow with a special to return annual excess capital.
"The Board has proposed a final dividend of 52.0 pence per share (2021: 72.0 pence per share, plus 46.0 pence per share special dividend from the sale of Penguin Portals) representing a normal dividend (65% of post-tax profits) of 37.5 pence per share and a special dividend of 14.5 pence per share."I just wanted a simple figure to put in my spreadsheet that would give me a useful yield figure.
Started: MrDingALing, 19 Mar 2023 19:58
Last post: MrDingALing, 19 Mar 2023 19:58
I’m sorry I know this has nothing to do with ADM but I’m trying to push as far as I can to raise funding for experimental treatment to hopefully save a friends life or at least extend it. https://www.gofundme.com/f/dendritic-cell-therapy-help-me-to-fight-cancer?viewupdates=1&rcid=r01-167904678216-9605b6bec4a911ed&utm_medium=email&utm_source=customer&utm_campaign=p_email%2B1137-update-supporters-v5bIf anyone knows anyone who might be willing to donate that would be very appreciated and outright kind . Follow the link above for detailsRegards,
Started: Paul2566, 8 Nov 2022 12:27
Last post: Paul2566, 12 Mar 2023 10:28
I have 1500 of these at an average of £24.7233, so it stings a bit, including the dividends reduces the pain a little.
I am not going to average down, simply because I don't want to go over weight on this stock, so for myself I'm just going to let it be.
I think (or perhaps just delusional) that eventually the SP will climb back up, but its going to take a while.
While I wait hopefully some level of dividend will be maintained, although there is little doubt it will be reduced from the levels I previously enjoyed.
Looks like I might have "lucked in" buying them in the wrong account and having to sell them, after Mr Markets wobble today.
Not sure the yield merits a repurchase just yet but I will reassess when the cash comes back
The shares that were last purchased have been sold for a small profit. Unfortunately they were purchased in the wrong account and this could not be corrected.
Normally they would be kept longer term for dividends but now I have become a trader, well this week.
Well my average was much lower but was still suffering. This latest batch has helped and has done well in the short time I've held it.
If it is able to maintain the divi then great but it is a risk with the direct line read across and expectations for the economy this year.
To be honest Mr Market has been good this year and I was expecting much worse and not planning to buy anything for a while.
Things might turn for the worse I suppose.
Gerry557... Yeah, I'm holding on too and hoping the dividend is at least maintained.
Regarding Munich Re..
They took a stake of just under 10% (29.72m shares) on the first of Sept 2021 when the share price was over 3600p.
They reduced their stake at the end of October 2021 to just under 5% after selling 12.1m shares at 2940p and in November 2022 sold another 7.4m at 2023p. They have said they won't sell any more before November 2023, but as they now only hold 1.765% (just under 5.3m shares) it's pretty academic anyway.
I'm just pleased my average price is nowhere near the roughly 3600p that Munich Re's is :)
Good luck to LTHs.
Started: Meconopsis, 6 Mar 2023 17:07
Last post: Roofer61, 9 Mar 2023 11:03
Paul , alls good, don't take it in negative way at all, all the best with your investments.....
Roofer61
My post was in response to your post, but it wasn't intended to be aimed at your credibility, or any kind of slur.
I just don't trust the press to tell whe whole story, they just like headlines to improve circulation/read hits.
Thanks for your response and hope you didn't take my post the wrong way, which having read it again, it you could have through no fault of your own.
ATB
Paul...after reading the article just a thought crossed my mind that's where the 27% reduction in dividend payment went , probably jumped the gun ..atb
Dive centre check his posting history either has grudge against ftse stocks or a shorter gla holders regards jack
Porscha1946
You sound like you hold a grudge.
Admiral have served me well over the years and I'm £500 up on my purchase this morning.
Started: Leapgrog, 1 Mar 2023 18:59
Last post: Devonbeachbum, 5 Mar 2023 11:10
The RNS says it's for the Employee Share Incentive Plan to be issued time to time. Not sure this is a sign of something going wrong. Could be the opposite. Hopefully rewards for better than expected final this week?!
What's gone wrong this time - why the block listing of 3,000,000 new shares?
Started: jeff19, 11 Jan 2023 12:02
Last post: jeff19, 11 Jan 2023 12:02
lots of chunky buys.... orders filling up. rerate soon :)
Started: YamR1man, 20 Sep 2022 15:12
Last post: YamR1man, 20 Sep 2022 15:12
...back to normal. Got excited for a couple of days. Ho Hum
Started: YamR1man, 16 Sep 2022 19:51
Last post: YamR1man, 16 Sep 2022 19:51
High volume today , especially buys !!
Started: DiveCentre, 5 Aug 2022 23:29
Last post: Porsche1946, 1 Sep 2022 11:08
Cost push inflation for these and dlg isnt going away, its now a massive factor that will smash the bottom line, plus the U.K. economy heading for the toilet at light speed so passing on cost increases very difficult, dead cat bounce over, these will see 15 before any sort of a recovery. Sterling being obliterated which won’t help, brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.
Not sure now is the best time for ADM to be growing customers and increasing revenue. Surely they should be focusing on Combined operating ratio?
You’re forgetting another key metric - customer numbers. DLG losing customers in their biggest divisions Motor and Home while ADM growing customers in all divisions - this gives ADM a strategic advantage.
It's not barking at all Trotsky. More like you're analysis is when you're comparing to the anomoly of last year. Bottom line is there are more than a million more policyholders than last year and group turnover is increasing year on year. Unlike DLG's GWP which is heading in the wrong direction. Fortunately, Mr Market can see which is on the up and which one is in decline.
eh? The "market" took it down from GBP 37ish to GBp 17ish in 11 months on no news. You call that not being "punished".
Admiral have a ridiculously low P/E of about 9
I reckon fair value for this share is about GBP 27 so grab them whilst you can.
Started: HarrySahib, 10 Aug 2022 15:09
Last post: moneybox007, 10 Aug 2022 15:41
Value was GBP 38 a year ago................was a bitspicey then with a p/e of 18. I reckon GBP27ish is about right.
value for this share is above 25GBP
Started: thebigone, 4 Aug 2022 15:20
Last post: thebigone, 4 Aug 2022 16:35
At this moment in time I totally agree. I'm talking about my outlook 10+ plus.
Public transport isn't cheap travel, and not convenient for a lot of people. Far cheaper for me to jump in my SUV diesel and transport four people than pay for four extortianate train tickets.
Perhaps it's just me but I think drivers appear to be slowing down to get more MPG. Got to help claims numbers.
Sure we all have cars etc now, but the push is for more and more people to use public transport. the long term market will slowly but surely decline for insurance companies in general in my opinion.
Started: my2penneth, 23 Jul 2022 11:26
Last post: Paul2566, 27 Jul 2022 09:36
huudi
Actually nationally its about one in thirty eight.
I suggest you have made an error.
A percentage of 33% uninsured drivers would make every insurance company in the UK operate at an unsustainable loss.
"unless people drive uninsured"
one in three drivers in Manchester ARE uninsured, probably similar in other towns/citys.
Disclosed short position is zero!
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B02J6398/
..see Teddy100 comment below.
The ADM shareprice is doing a SHEL...it will recover...unless folk drive uninsured. ADM ( and the others will increase insurance premiums.).
Started: bouveries, 25 Jul 2022 10:47
Last post: bouveries, 25 Jul 2022 10:47
admiral has won some women's award for best welsh place to work or something. the share price should really rally now !!
sorry I forgot the ! - this was a satirical post so surprised it has received 3 recommendations
makes absolutely no difference to the share price - in fact the share price has gone down since (not surprising as these awards are a distraction as is all the pride pronoun stuff)
feminism doesnt drive share prices upwards, sorry