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Any likelihood ABRDN could be subject of a takeover?
I’ve held since SL days and very disappointed in the SP.
Staff to work from home. "A very sad day", says Martin Gilbert!
Nice to know someone of same age agrees -- have fun in York - hope canoe not necessary :D best wishes
Yorkshireman, I entirely endorse your sentiments. Pointless speculating as to what may or may not happen with this share or indeed any others. I have been with Abrdn (nee SL) since de-mutulisation back in 2006 and have modestly added since then. I gladly accept my bi-annual dividends as they add to my pension and enable me to get away a couple of times a year with my equally aged mates for a few days. We're off to York for 4 days next month for a friends birthday so may have to invest in a canoe before getting there!
Quite. The way share prices are rising 5% one day and falling 5% the next (ad infinitum) shows that Brexit has made the UK effectively an emerging market. The only people doing well out of our dismay are the hedge funds (£67bn profit last year). It's sickening and hate it all.
Everyone on here cannot give a honest opinion and forecast - rather than try to make money out of bending the truth or simply lying - but I fear it won't change - to be honest - I hold shares and hope they will improve in price and continue to give a dividend - that's all - simple -THE TRUTH
Probably now a fantasy?
Svend, If you are talking about the earnings forecast on Simply Wall Street, it is only £185m for 2026. Interactive is already generating half of that figure.
Having worked there for 9 months in 2021-2, it was clear that Bird has no strategy beyond flogging assets to get cash to continue the share buyback at inflated prices, hence the recent gains. Now that the buyback has stopped the shares are already halfway back to the September point if 155p. Bird was going to flog the active manager (about 70% of AUM) last year and they are trying to sell a commercial park in the Gyle (west of Edinburgh) for £126m at the moment. The line management is rubbish and HR are convinced that the new religion of "diversity" will save them. In a truly genius move just as they were replatforming, abrdn announced that the contact centre (somewhat key to two of the three vectors) was being sent to a desolate building in the Gyle, while the rest of the company stayed in a newly refurbished building in central Edinburgh - the result has been an exodus of experienced staff, just as they claimed to be recruiting 35 more staff and a net loss of AUA while almost everyone else was getting inflows. They proudly touted that a staff survey showed 70% backed Bird's strategy - assuming they knew what it was!
I think Bird is just trying to slim down to a Wealth Administrator, which will be taken over and he can retire with a nice cheque. The platform is supposed to be worth £1.4-1.7bn based on the figure being touted for Parmenion. Say ii is worth what abrdn paid (£1.5bn) and the rest of the business is not worth much by market assessment. Bird is almost at the end of his three year turnaround plan and not much has changed, due to a lack of strategy - as Panmure Gordon said last October following he break-up suggestion by Numis. The platform has fallen to the 8th most popular among IFAs and more platforms are coming, notably Scottish Widows.
As a middle manager, abrdn/Bird may have to take the risk of initiating the inevitable consolidation. I wondered about running the rule over the troubled Jupiter - it has a market cap of £480m, but does generate £45m in profit - about the same as ii did on takeover. Then there would be the savings from consolidating the fund management side. Even a total takeover cost of £600m would generate a 7.3% return, which is more than cash is earning now. I gather there is to be an emphasis on Emerging Markets - with a strong dollar and rising interest rates!
Yeah, he's thinking of renaming the company AbErdEEn plc ;-)
Would love to see, or read Martin Gilberts assement of this,,,, which would never be allowed to be published?
I do not think it will be taken over. The volumes traded have been falling over the past few years. Even small trades are having a big affect on the share price.
I have confidence in Stephen Bird to turn this around. Todays announcement is good news. It means the divi is safe at 7.3p this Feb. He is taking steps to increase profits etc. The sector is out of favour and interest rates are high. When these start to come down the share price will go up. In the meantime enjoy an 8% reasonably secure return.
I am not worried about this share and less so after the announcement today.
What I worry about is when compnaies do not react to changing conditions or do not have a plan.
At least Stephen Bird has a plan.
I have been watching buys/sells on this share over the last few months. There have been a lot of substantial buys. I am not trying to talk this up, although I am a holder, but have felt for some time that we may be ripe for a take over? What do others think.
Every blessing
And the markets make me look a fool….now 11/250 and the decline flipped to a 3% rise….quite unbelievable.
Market is not impressed….SP change is 249/250 in the FT250.
Still ABDN has lots of liquid assets to maintain its dividend/shareholder returns as it can sell down its PHNX stake…..I think that will drag on PHNX for some time relative to other life assurance companies….
Continues to be a burden to hold this share.
They have identified 150m of additional savings over the 75m already in progress….bloated cost base would seem to be a generous description unless there is a lot of wishful thinking in the target….which we may never know because management changes the business and “new costs” allowed for the new business..
The ii business seems to be doing relatively well compared to other parts of the group…..but whether this is worth the £1.5bn is debatable - I am expecting a hefty write down of good will at some point.
Moodys downgrade, could be messy tomorrow
Stephen Bird resigning? Would push share price up, which the share buy-back has singularly failed to do.
ABDN update tomorrow should be very interesting.
Flagged up 10% of workforce to depart.
Today's 4% rise is presumably down to the announcement today:
"Event Date
abrdn plc intends to issue a pre-Close trading update at 7am on 24 January. The announcement will update on flows and trading during H2."
There is some reason for this, which we will see next Wednesday.
Onwards and upwards from here
SB did leave. A new CFO started in October.
I understand Stephanie Bruce wanted to leave in 2023.
No suitable opportunities have arisen elsewhere.
SP may be lower with her leaving.
Svend, If you are talking about the earnings forecast on Simply Wall Street, it is only £185m for 2026. Interactive is already generating half of that figure.
Having worked there for 9 months in 2021-2, it was clear that Bird has no strategy beyond flogging assets to get cash to continue the share buyback at inflated prices, hence the recent gains. Now that the buyback has stopped the shares are already halfway back to the September point if 155p. Bird was going to flog the active manager (about 70% of AUM) last year and they are trying to sell a commercial park in the Gyle (west of Edinburgh) for £126m at the moment. The line management is rubbish and HR are convinced that the new religion of "diversity" will save them. In a truly genius move just as they were replatforming, abrdn announced that the contact centre (somewhat key to two of the three vectors) was being sent to a desolate building in the Gyle, while the rest of the company stayed in a newly refurbished building in central Edinburgh - the result has been an exodus of experienced staff, just as they claimed to be recruiting 35 more staff and a net loss of AUA while almost everyone else was getting inflows. They proudly touted that a staff survey showed 70% backed Bird's strategy - assuming they knew what it was!
I think Bird is just trying to slim down to a Wealth Administrator, which will be taken over and he can retire with a nice cheque. The platform is supposed to be worth £1.4-1.7bn based on the figure being touted for Parmenion. Say ii is worth what abrdn paid (£1.5bn) and the rest of the business is not worth much by market assessment. Bird is almost at the end of his three year turnaround plan and not much has changed, due to a lack of strategy - as Panmure Gordon said last October following he break-up suggestion by Numis. The platform has fallen to the 8th most popular among IFAs and more platforms are coming, notably Scottish Widows.
As a middle manager, abrdn/Bird may have to take the risk of initiating the inevitable consolidation. I wondered about running the rule over the troubled Jupiter - it has a market cap of £480m, but does generate £45m in profit - about the same as ii did on takeover. Then there would be the savings from consolidating the fund management side. Even a total takeover cost of £600m would generate a 7.3% return, which is more than cash is earning now. I gather there is to be an emphasis on Emerging Markets - with a strong dollar and rising interest rates!
Yes it has
Has the buy back stopped.