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There's only 2 weeks left for BHP to confirm their upgraded offer. Could be this week?
IMO minimum comeback offer from aNY partY will be £30 !!! GLA....
Https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-gets-green-light-for-improved-anglo-bid-20240506-p5fpbn
GrowUp - thanks for clarification- FWIW I’m inclined to agree with the fund manager’s comment!
The FT manifestly has not described BHP's bid as "comedy" and "insult". I just went searching, at length, for where the FT has said this, because it would be quite something if it had. There is as far as I can see nothing more than an FT article a few days ago that quotes a portfolio manager in those terms. Big difference - or not I guess, if you live in a post-truth world.
The Financial Times has described BHP bid for Anglo Anerican as " comedy " and " insult"
chisler
Glencore is not performing better since the BHP bid. It closed at 474.1 on 24.04, i.e. the day before the BHP bid was announced. It closed at 455 yesterday. So it has lost 4% since the BHP was announced (yes it went ex-distribution this week, that knocks off only around 1%). The FTSE is up over 2% since 24.04. Copper and other commodities have been continuing to rise. RIO is roughly flat. As far as I can see the bid has already done nothing but harm Glencore's share price, i.e. giving yet another easy excuse for the short sellers who are always circling the share to start working on yanking it down again after it has crawled of the canvass since February.
Glencore ‘was’ prior to the sell off on Thursday and Friday (maybe on rumours of their interest in Anglo?)
GLEN, RIO and AAL are all performing better in the wake of BHP’s approach. I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional interest from outside of UK listed stocks given the value proposition and rising price of metal prices which is expected to continue as supply deficits hit in the coming decades.
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/03/glencore-may-trigger-bidding-war-for-mining-rival-anglo-american
I see nothing in the two Times articles linked below or anywhere else at this stage that indicates credibly that GLEN.L or anyone else intends to bid. let alone GLEN.L being a logical frontrunner if it does. I see BHP on the one hand recognising that its offer has rightly been taken as offensive and hence now running around trying to placate people, most notably the South African government. On the other I see AAL.L management recognising the company has been run into the ground so badly that it has been left a sitting duck to a single takeover offer, priced at roughly 40% below what it shares hit in early 22. (Or if you want to discount that as a bubble moment, how about this - BHP's bid values AAL.L at more than 25% below what its shares traded for back in early 2011 FFS; cyclical industry or not that is on any measure a company that has suffered Grade A value destruction.) Hence it seems that AAL.L / its advisors / others with skin in the game have pressed the emergency button yesterday and resorted to dropping well-timed horsesh*t about others considering bidding after the air came out of the sp balloon earlier this week.
Hi all do you think there's a possibility that Rio Tinto could throw there hat in the ring?
Two new articles in The Times have Glencore as the favourite (suggesting that they are holding back, pending a renewed BHP offer). Analysts are quoted saying that an Anglo-Glencore tie-up may offer significant synergies, adding value to the merged groups. Given the prospects for net zero metals, particularly copper, it's hard not to see any outcome being advantageous to investors, in the medium to long term.
Bidding war in prospect as Glencore mulls move for Anglo American
https://archive.ph/thvBJ
Buyers ready to dig deep for world’s miners
https://archive.ph/FMv3M
I cannot conceive how a GLEN.L bid for AAL.L would hold ANY attraction for a shareholder of either company. I would therefore be very surprised if one emerges. Judging by the vertical collapse back down in the AAL.L share price this afternoon after the spike on the GLEN.L rumour this morning so do others?
If you are an AAL.L shareholder why on earth would you swap your existing shares, at what will inevitably be lowball ratio (any bid is going to be, unfortunately), for an arguably even worse yo-yo share in GLEN.L? You will be getting low-balled by BHP as well but at least you then have a realistic prospect that the BHP share price eventually delivers the remaining upside you believe you are owed. I just don't see that happening with GLEN.L.
There is in my view - as someone who knows both shares well - no sensible prospect of meaningful further upside, ever, if you swap to GLEN.L shares. GLEN.L has only once traded above its 2011 listing price. (It currently still trades around 15% below it and that is only after a massive and unexpected upswing since February on rising copper prices.) The one rise above the listing price happened fleetingly in 2023, i.e. after 12 years, due to the Ukraine-induced bubble in coal and other commodity prices.
GLEN.L’s distribution was also destroyed in January, and it seems likely to remain so now for the foreseeable future. It has also emerged this week that its pending acquisition of Teck, which was supposedly going to serve as a catalyst for a significant upward re-rating of the share price by leading to a spin out of all its coal assets will now likely result in the company retaining both the Teck coal assets and its existing ones. I.e. likely leading to a permanent downward re-rating of the sp instead, because it hence becomes permanently uninvestible to many institutional shareholders
In short GLEN.L has repeatedly trashed the supposed upside in various acquisitions, most notably Xstrata in 2013, and Teck now looks like being the latest. It has essentially traded since it listed as a junk commodity, prone to plunge 20% and more at the drop of a hat.
If you are a GLEN.L shareholder why on earth would you trust GLEN.L management to take on AAL.L, at the same time as Teck? The most likely scenario is that they turn around and tell you shortly thereafter that - oops - they have re-assessed that many of AAL.L’s assets do not carry the value that believed them to when acquiring them. In fact, that many of them are going to be mothballed / junked / written down to zero. That is literally what happened with Xstrata.
Nor me they ain't got the cash it will be some sort of mass share giveaway diluting Glencore and it will be years if you hold glen like me to see a big profit in my portfolio. Even the dividends will not make up for it, I would love to get a majority cash offer for AAL and be done. I actually believed in this business and held when it was £40 plus thinking it will get to £45-£50 .
I didnt think Glencore was in a position to spend this kind of cash....
I hold GLEN, BHP and AAL .I am expecting a dark horse from China to walk in and sweep the decks.
IF BHP INCLUDED A £10 CASH OFFER FROM ITS HUGE RESERVES,IT WOULD BE A DONE DEAL.
It would be hard to refuse.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Exciting :)
This could get tasty next week with other potential bidders discussing over the weekend . Only 19 days left for BHP to revise their bid. I don't think they will leave it to the last minute . IMO.
Interesting, though not altogether surprising, news. One idea doing the rounds is that Glencore could pitch a simple all-share merger to Anglo, without the conditions that complicated BHP’s offer. I don't hold Glencore, so this would be my preferred scenario. In any case, the report should send the sp rocketing again tomorrow.
Me too.
I think they are downplaying the future potential of Woodsmith in order to keep a lid on the takeover price.
I hope that the project commences production by 2027, as planned.
OR
Any AGM chatter? Don’t think they can discuss deals though? Cheers
I’m assuming you’ve never tried to buy something, that wasn’t up for sale in the first place
I have stuck with POLY 4 since Sirius shambles. I reckon this is the perfect long term investment. The world may collapse around us but food production will still play an important part in our everyday activities. The Chinese showed a great deal of interest I in this product in the initial stages, so they will be watching this scenario with some envious interest. The game has just begun. Roll on a billion pound industry!