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With the implications from the 88e drill becoming daily more apparently, and with Hobbo yet to reveal any "non dilutory" finance, the Panr share price will continue to head for the abyss
It's an analogy to demonstrate that you can draw solid conclusions from partial sets of data. It's appropriate because this is how 88e came to conclusion and how every single other flow test ever came to conclusions to some extent or another.
An interpretation that states the flow rate can only be 4 barrels is in fact cherry picking one piece of data and ignoring everything else. Clearly the flow rate is more than 4.
I can assure you that for the analogy I used that even if I had to call the water company my water flow would be far more than 1 litre a day as an average output.
Skip,
Why didn't you leave the tap on for the 24hrs to get a day rate? You have the time, you've taken 4 days off work to get an accurate measurement.
Not sure about your plumbing but you might get 1 litre in 12 sec then turn the tap off, ring your utility company and report that you are seeing 7200 litres/day
You then turn the tap back on and only get air for the rest of the day but for that 12 sec window you saw a rate equivalent to 7200 litres/day.
In actuality you have 1 litre per day in your jug.
No that's not a good analogy.
This is a better analogy:
Go home and turn your water off at the mains. Leave it for a few hours.
Turn the mains back on.
Now turn on your tap and see what happens. After a small period of time the water flows but it didnt for the full period.
Now time how long it takes to fill a one litre bottle of water and turn off the tap.
Is your flow rate 1 litre of water a day or is the daily flow rate the 24 hours divided by the time it took to fill your 1 litre bottle of water?
Whilst this analogy is somewhat trite it is at least relevant and demonstrates how you extrapolate valid outcomes from limited data.
Older,
It's a bit like saying, because Usain Bolt can achieve a running rate of 44.72 km/h, therefore he can run a marathon in less than an hour.
Fine print: Running rate measured over 100m.
Skippy
I dont know where to go next, they flowed 4 barrels, in the 16hrs they flowed oil, you are arguing this is not the key data
Once flow is sustainable, How much oil a well flows over time is the most meaningful data point in any flow test.
Peaks and troughs are just data noise, sustained average flow is what counts
In order to get it going we need some fantastic news : it could be about- Longhorne/ Namibia or revised data for Hickory- 1. 88E is not just about Hickory, it has its fingers in other projects as well. Now the funding is sorted , time is needed and patience might pay off eventually. It’s not going to happen tomorrow or next week, which all of the investors would have liked. But it’s AIM market: invest only what one can afford to lose or patience might pay off one day. Good luck to me and all in the waiting of good news in the future!🤞🏼😎💊
6bopd is also not the outcome from the data.
It's a valid point.
But blimey - it is SOOOOO obvious these people are not real but actors with a very very clear purpose. They appear on all of the message boards. Often you can identify very clear language and syntax that demonstrates an individual with many accounts. This one is very familiar.
Skippy
4 barrels is the actual flow collected over the 16 hours in which oil was flowing, you can extrapolate that out to 6bopd, it is still poor
No they stated quite clearly what the flow rate was based on the data and valid assumptions. You just picked 4 conveniently as a position in the data that suits your objective and bias. It is not the outcome of the data.
Skippy you are arguing that, the purpose of the flow test, was not to produce a viable flow
88es favorite pump site next investors even put out their expectations, under 50 was the bear case, which makes 4 pretty sick
Yes that's right Olderwiser. And so this - 'The SMD-B flow test was concluded with sufficient information for the next steps'
Any form of testing requires extrapolating results from a dataset. It is never to run permanent sustainable outcomes. You can debunk any test outcome with your approach.
As you put it - the viability can be calculated!
You people are arguing with stupid! You can’t win.. 🤷🏼♂️
Skippy
The purpose of a flow test is to establish a sustainable flow, so the producibility can be known, so the viability can be calculated
No it really does. You have assumed that they made a decision to stop before achieving 'sustainable flows' when in fact they stopped when the test had completed the companies objectives. This opinion is bias. It means a lot.
Skippy
Thats a good example, when you look really hard, it actually means nothing
Olderwiser 'the decisions to stop before achieving sustainable flow, answers every question an investor needs to know'. Again - an opinion with no basis but to achieve the agenda driven bias.
From the company: ‘The SMD-B flow test was concluded with sufficient information for the next steps, and the data recorded will assist 88E in optimisation and design processes in the next phase of advancement of Project Phoenix.’
Mikee
I think you just worked it out,
For evil to flourish, good men need do nothing
Olderwiser why don't you tell us what your agenda is? are you really just a good Samaritan who spends all his time trying to save people from bad investments?
Actions speak louder than words IMHO. The company has largely sat back and watched the share price drop post the flow test results. They were happy to raise money at the lowest price in years post flow test results. These are not actions of a company aghast with the market's reaction to 'successful' flow tests.
If they indeed think the reaction was unjust a few puff pieces from Next Investors et al was not the defence required. They could quite easily have scheduled a webinar to give a summary of their findings and support the share price a little more. They didn't even add additional commentary on last Friday's further information RNS.
Moving to the resources from prospective to contingent is not an assessment of commerciality. Likewise claiming a farm out process is underway doesn't mean anything, remember the Yukon farmout out.
Many will want to see some 3rd party modelling to demonstrate commerciality. If you apply the company's guidance of 6-12 vertical flow rates to even the peak rates I think you are struggling to be commercial.
Skippy
Entirely based in data, the 4 barrels from the SMDB and the 24.8 from the USFS, with 1.45mcft of gas
These are poor numbers, and even poorer for the brevity of the oil cut periods of 16 and 14 hours
The 70% frack water recovery means these flow tests are well into normalizing, the decisions to stop before achieving sustainable flow, answers every question an investor needs to know
But your opinion has no basis in data. You have extrapolated an opinion to fit the data rather than extrapolated from the data to build a model of the potential. You can accuse the company on 'spin' if you want to but it's hard to see how 88e could release any option without you choosing to address it in a negative way.
Investors do need to be aware. This is a high risk investment. BUT you do need to be wary of wise men bringing strong opinions which meet an end - its not being done for our benefit. You have no reason to post on this board other than to try to influence the SP. Clearly the hundreds and perhaps thousands of posts you have created have an agenda otherwise there is no reason to do it. Unless you are mad - which you are not.
Skippy, if thats what you think, then the spin worked.
Time will unravel it
Older, makes more sense ;)