The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Basically to conclude for all new and existing people reading this board.......none of us has a fu@#ing clue what is going on :) happy investing!
My take-
It’s now been a whole month gone by since 31st may RNS reported the most recent hole completed, hole 52, amongst others had been sent for assays and were waiting for them to get back from the lab. Currently they are drilling at footrot finally. With a hole planned to test for deeper gold system back at Ascot, the drilling phase is about to be completed suggests after the Ascot deep drill, to then work the models and position the project in the global market. Which ti me doesn’t mean AA are out of the picture imo they just have first refusal.
In report they have ‘largely’ delineated Racecourse. This could mean a last hole to the very north west margin that was still undefined, also a couple of extra holes to sure up where there was a gap in the model. To me, the term largely delineated suggests a conclusion as are maybe happy with what they have there with the potential the couple of holes to sure up the model at least, have been completed already and in the last month.
It does appear from report that high grade component at Racecourse that will pay of the CapEx has either, already been, or will not be extended to beyond 4-6 years as was initially suggested they may do so in last podcast. Or at least there is no mention of that in the report. IMO from the podcast mention, I got the impression they would decide ‘after’ the financial evaluation to embark on the programme to extend to 6-8 years. But again they may have already completed the shallow infill programme if they decided to extend.
To sum up, there has potentially been up to six weeks plus of drilling available since 52 was last reported as waiting for assays, also allowing for when hole was completed, core sampling and logging, prep for assays and received by lab.
Plenty of opportunity to complete any of the outstanding drills mentioned before. No reason whatsoever to doubt the phase of drilling will end soon and project exploration will end. A third phase is very unlikely as the project objectives have now, we assume, been met. Any further drilling may then have a negative impact on the value curve. Just 10% extra investment for further exploration with time and operational costs will not necessarily return the same ratio of value from previous exploration.
Re Lucky's point about things left to interpretation...
"As with all porphyries, however, a full understanding requires much drilling to define the full potential and our projects are no exception. The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market."
So does that mean we still need to do a lot more drilling to define our full potential? Or does that just explain why we did so much drilling and its now all complete and we are evaluating info?
Can be read both ways imho.
And
“ position the project to global market”
That comment could mean AA have said they are not interested and we can start a bidding war with all other companies?
I think you could interpret that main para above as either very good news or that we have a lot more drilling to do to get us over the line.
There is a good pod cast on sky news app, which talks about his important cooper is - worth a listen
Had a go at selling a few this morning but had absolutely no chance, Could only quote to sell 10k shares. Not worth trying to sell when you hold a lot.
Managed to stay away all day whilst enjoying the last day of my paris holiday.
So I've popped back in this evening, with a nicotine patch on to see the damage!!! ..... not surprising at all.
Like always, things are left to interpretation. One example is the comment 'where bushranger sits on the global market' this could be interpreted as AA arnt showing much intrest, we are putting the for sale board up on the global market. Possibly the optimist could argue its so big they arnt just comparing it to where it compares on the Australian market but bushranger will be high up on the global market!!
It turns out that kelengwa cost us 360k!! I don't buy the excuses at all!! Xtract had many months to do all the due diligence before committing. I know it's not huge amounts but I believe it was bought for shares in xtract, therefore I'm sure they made a lot more than the 200k or so that we gave them.
Any conspiracy theorists? Wasn't the owner of kelengwa some murdering gangster? Did Colin owe a debt? Is the owner of kelengwa into horse racing?
Lol I'll leave that one there, maybe I've watched too many films.
I keep hearing in my head Colin say 'we don't want to give away a cadia' that's all that's keeping me hanging on.....aswell as not being able to sell any shares haha.
GLA I think we are in for a longer ride than expected.
IWTO
I'm no expert on land banking, but surely any sale price will be based on the POC when the mine is thought to be going into production? As it will take circa 10 years (very quick) to build the plant and get into production, and remembering the LOM will be 25 years min, I would think that any buyer would be trying to determine the POC in circa 2030 to 2060.
So the downturn recently, or even over the next year, may not be as significant as intuitively it seems.
With the Green revolution and EV revolution, I dont think any analyst would think that POC will not be higher (possibly significantly higher) than its current all time high by the time that the mine is starting production.
Just a thought - I presume it’s quite common for large mining companies to buy deposits for mining not now but at some time in the distant future - just like in house construction. We know BR is a sizeable deposit. Even IF of low economic value at today’s spot price (and I’m not saying it is) BR must have a reasonable value with the intent of putting it to one side until the copper price reaches its likely higher permanent price. So even a 1-1.5Mt deposit (say) at $4 per lb has a value that a major mining company would be prepared to pay for. That may be fairly nominal - $50m? (no idea) - but that purchase price is small change for these guys. Those experts out there - am I right?