London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
You will only have one login account. Registering with multiple accounts is not allowed. Any user found to have more than one account on this site will have all, and any future accounts suspended permanently.
Your email and password must only be used by you. If a post is made under your account, it will be considered that it was posted by yourself.
Your account nickname must not be the same, or contain, listed company names or board members' names.
While debating and discussion is fine, we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy.
You will not;
discuss illegal or criminal activities.
post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge.
post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities.
post any private communication, or part thereof, from any other person, including from a member of the board of directors of a listed company. Such posts cannot be verified as true and could be deemed to be misleading.
post any personal details (e.g. email address or phone number).
post live price or level 2 updates.
publish content that is not your original work, or infringes the copyright or other rights of any third party.
post non-constructive, meaningless, one word (or short) non-sense posts.
post links to, or otherwise publish any content containing any form of advertising, promotion for goods and services, spam, or other unsolicited communication.
post any affiliate or referral links, or post anything asking for a referral.
post or otherwise publish any content unrelated to the board or the board's topic.
re-post premium share chat posts on regular share chat.
restrict or inhibit any other user from using the boards.
impersonate any person or entity, including any of our employees or representatives.
post or transmit any content that contains software viruses, files or code designed to interrupt, destroy or limit the functionality of this website or any computer software or equipment.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post.
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium and Verified Members
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
CE, thats a very sensible and truthful post. I wholly agree. This is a big project with a hell of a lot going happening on the coal ( copper ) face so to speak. It takes time, they are in no rush re assays. The more pressing thing is to secure the drill rigs for phase 2. ( CB said they had to sign a drilling contract to secure the Rigs due to the monies involved and the metres needing drilled, hence the placing. You just DONT go to those lengths unless you are 95% certain you have pay dirt. CB also adding aids that likelyhood imo. Once we have hole 2 + may be 3's assays in, perhaps together ( i believe them to be decent, but remember its size of prospect here compared to higher grades that counts), then we will head north. Phase 2 drilling beginning will push this further. All in all, very exciting times ahead. I believe that 5.6p will again very soon seem a distant memory. Afterall they have got the £5.5m placing away now which imo is a significant achievement in these times. A huge vote of confidence in XTR, the BOD and their prospects. PS... buy some WSBN, another much larger XTR in the making there.
Good points Steve and great if you're right....and you may well be.
A good bulletin board is a balanced one.. and I see far more balance in the share price behaviour than I do in the postings on this b/b .... so no harm me throwing out some 'other side' points too :-)
(The current value of my bet 'ere is plenty of 10's of thousands so I'm all for this going up... but I've also ben involved in xtr for a long time and there remains only one Mr Colin Bird, who, as a rule seemingly, gives full entertainment along long, winding and bumby road jourrneys :-))
Colin mentioned in several interviews that the on-site geos were finding it difficult to keep up with the drilling pace and we now know that we had to use a third party to cut the cores prior to sending them to the assay labs.
It is just a simple fact that we do not live in a perfect world so things tend to be more complicated and take longer than expected.
If CB says it will take 3 months to get assay results he will be criticised by those that say it should only take 2 months and if he says 6 weeks he is criticised for being over-optimistic ( or even willfully misleading!). I honestly wouldn't like to be in CB's shoes as he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, so all credit to him for continuing to march forwards despite the ramblings and rumblings of we PIs.
Who will care how long the assay results have taken, providing CB manages to trigger the AA buyout? - I get the feeling that the same people that criticise him now will be his best friend then...
Nicetomichu - We don't have formal confirmation that the grades are there but look at the clues:
* CB talking about average grades in the last interview of high 0.3's to low 0.4's * The company know the XRF reading for all the holes (and we know hole 1 assays and XRF readings were very similar) * They have committed to a massive spend on a bigger phase 2 drilling programme, with more holes and 2 rigs * The IP survey has been extended * They have presented to an investor who is stumping up £5.5m to fund the next stage of the discovery * CB just bought another 1m shares
Yes, hence the caveat of .2%. The example i mentioned had grades of .15 or .17 copper, but thats scrapping the barrel a bit.folks need to remember that we are not looking at the hole length of .2%, we are looking at maybe 300m or so, with a higher grade section of .3 to .5% at 100-150m. Its very difficult to see them being bad i.e none commercial. but i wouldn't rule out a nice surprise.
cyberiachas - Yes, the article is about AA and they may not choose to buy but a 'fair value' is a fair value regardless of who might eventually buy it. The articles provides a simple formula for calculating value and is probably as good a way as any for estimating it at this stage.
In my opinion we already have enough data to be confident as investors that there is going to be well in excess of 2mt of Cu Eq. Admittedly, we don't have formal confirmation of the grades yet but we've be given enough clues that they are there.
We've had assay results for one 'ole only released so far, so we don't have a good understanding of the grades 'ere yet Iceberg?
In my mind at least, we should have had the second 'ole assay results plenty of weeks ago and maybe even 'ole 3 assay results released by now too. So I understand that the market can be a little edgy around now. (And, even including that latest interview, my guess remains that 'ole 2 assay results could easily, on overall average, be weaker than 'ole 1 .. 'ole 3 i'll not offer a guess on)
Afore said, altogether, I'm pleased with the raise and the plans going forward and have high hopes for the s/p 'ere in the future.. but until next assay results update anything broadly around 5.5p is reasonable in my mind as a s/p 'ere.
If/ when good assay results - 'ole 2 and 3 together I expect - and/or other xtr project good news either, then the s/p should move on up off the back... If no other good news in short term and 'ole 2 and 3 assay results turn out to be on average weaker than 'ole one , then some further s/p weakness here is clearly possible in my mind too, alas.
Sorry stevem to be a bit of a pedant, but to answer the valuation question, that article gives an estimate of a potential valuation IF xtr hit 2mt cueq AND Anglo American decide to exercise their option. They may not .
The best way of making sure they do is prove up a figure well in excess of 2mt and showing that the deposit is a good one to mine in terms of geophysics and continuity of grade .
I think the continuity of grade in hole 1 is a good first place indicator of that , and the identification of multiple porphyria is giving a very good prospect of significantly exceeding 2mt IMHO and GLA
Northisle copper have released a pea this year for a bulk copper gold project with around 2mt cu eq. This came in with an npv of around £500m. To be honest there copper grades are below ours and it's a terrible project. It's impossible to value bushranger atm. However my suggestion would be copper only...if we've got high gold areas then separate that material after copper processing. Keep the cap ex simple at say £300-400m to give an IRR of maybe even 30-40% (i.e payback in a 2-3 years) You are probably looking at an NPV of 700m to 1bn if we can keep copper grades above .2% At say a 30% discount to npv post jorc. Maybe 250-300m for xtr. This is pure finger in the air and could nt possibly be counted as accurate.
My understanding of how fair value will be defined would be by benchmarks (there was the recent new mount acquisition in Canada, not sure if there have been any material deals in Oz recently?) and cash flow analysis (NPV) which we simply don’t have the inputs e.g. capex, opex, copper price forecast (I would guess they would use the copper price forward curve), fiscal regime etc etc.
So in short, no idea of what fair value is of 2mt at his stage, but I like the approach in the article due to its simplicity?
Phil - The price of copper has gone up since the article I link to below was written but that is probably offset by the placement yesterday. It will give you a rough idea of the potential SP if we hit 2mt of Cu Eq.
If you listen to the most recent interview CB states that footrot isn’t required for the 2mt (or something along those lines). As they expect the P2 drilling schedule to prove up the 2mt it wouldn’t make sense to do the IP survey or drill a couple of test holes at footrot if they weren’t going to see any of the potential benefit e.g. XTR can decide when to get the reserves in the license JORC (this is my take as I haven’t seen the actual details).