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I think Woodfords investment strategy is like pinning the tail on the Donkey frankly. He is spoke to be the expert. I am an expert in rebuilding small engines but I am supposedly not the investment expert Woodford was supposed to be.
Quite right the FCA are a gummy Tiger they wouldnt do anything if a company started hacking into peoples bank accounts. For instance -- they knew London & Capital Finance were running a dodgy and unsustainable business 2 years before they collapsed wiping out thousands of peoples holdings and all they seem to say is "these were unregulated investments" so thats them of the hook even though they approved the company operating in general.
I'd like to think so Peggy, trying to incite extra fear when people are already at breaking point is a simply disgusting!!
You are right with your comments, i am not invested here but my wife is via her pension, she is 60% down and i cant see the point in selling given that anything that might go up by 60% could go down by that much just as quickly.
In my opinion i think this will move forward once they appoint a new manager & team to look after things, by how much is anybody's guess, surely if this was as bad as some are stating on here then they would have suspended trading by now, maybe they will who knows?
Although i would like my wife to buy more she wont, i think it is worth a punt at these prices, like as been said although Woodford as messed up to say the least there has got to be some decent investments in here somewhere. The drop is overdone in my opinion as nobody really knows the true value.
there really are some low life here, not invested but know people who are there gutted at the way this has worked out but, still people on here spouting unfair accusations. I'd think independent valuators have a far better knowledge than people on here saying these companies are worthless. Woodford has made some big mistakes, but he's not a crook or an idiot, and would not be in the habit of buying companies that had no future prospects.
I'm not sure it's difficult to value a total fraud company, IH as a big fat zero.
100% upside? I sincerely wish you luck with that.
80% of WPCT portfolio is invested in unquoted companies and the other 20% in small caps. The valuation and realisation of value is very difficult.
Tucked a few of these away as a contrarian play.
If the share price is 50% less than the NAV then that offers a potential 100% upside to get back to NAV levels. That provides good upside for a healthy enough return for me. If the assets get revalued in the middle range then that will do nicely.
Dont expect the FCA to do anything re questionable NAV figures. They can barely hold a crayon. You may as well try to explain NAV to a bored five year old.
Maybe a US style class action to pursue directors could result in payback for anyone investing after 21.9.18
Will investors finally get the message that most mutual and open ended funds are dogs https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/17/will-investors-finally-get-the-message-that-most-mutual-and-open-ended-funds-are-dogs
Agreed. IH was the red flag. Woodford was apparently suckered into buying into IH and then he revalued his holding by +350 % in Sept 2018.
No evidence of any research facilities, research results etc for IH to justify that revaluation or any subsequent valuation put on IH.
Those responsible for that RNS of 21.9.18 should be held to account as the increase in NAV lured investors with the apparent bargain SP discount to NAV
Doubt if he and the rest of the board members will lose much sleep :-
The exit sign was about 4 years ago, not 1.
When they bought IH it was obvious they could be conned into buying anything.
And the second exit sign was a year ago when IH was uprated 3.5x at that point it was clear something beyond dodgy was going on since that was a company with a literally impossible product.
PB at least was just a company that did *something* and it was open to debate if it would be disruptive.
The only disruption possible from IH was to the credibility of the analysts within WPCT / WIM which brought into question what else they were buying.
How many of you posters follow Tom Winnifrith and his colleagues on *************? If you had, you could have exited WPCT a year or more ago, without loss, as I did. Obviously, I knew when investing that Neil Woodford was investing in Biotech start-ups and he admitted some would fail, but others, he argued would succeed spectacularly and make the losses insignificant. Woodford 'balanced' the illiquid stocks with listed stocks and what did it for me, prompted by Tom, was looking at one of these, Purplebricks. Woodford believed this estate agency had a business model that would 'disrupt' the market and he bought in big, at up to 27% of the equity at one point. Well, I'm older than Neil and found I could not believe this spiel and thus agreed with Tom that Purplebricks was itself far too speculative to balance anything and sure enough, it fell like a stone, as the 'disruption' failed to materialise. I had bought in to WPCT at around 91p and got out showing a tiny gain, but am I glad I did. Thank you, Tom and you deserve many many more readers and no detractors,because what you do is a public service to investors. Panorama, next Monday, I believe..
@bestintown theres a big difference between uber/netflix etc and WPCT.
The former are valued on the basis that their underlying business models will produce money.
WPCT is valued on the basis that its individual components business models will make money.
So you need to take the valuation of each one and add them all up. One, IH, is clearly to anyone but a dupe, worthless, so why trust the valuations of the other components when you know that one at least is clearly valued by people who've been duped, another, Benevolent, has clearly been wildly overvalued, and Proton doesn't look as if it will be profitable so why trust any of the other valuations the same people have made?
I dont think WPCT is the "high risk component of a balanced portfolio" because you dont just want a high risk element by itself. The high risk shoudl be balanced with a probability that their would be a correspondingly potential big payoff. Theres nothing now in WPCT to sugegst that big payoff is there as a possibility. Maybe there was 2 or 3 years ago. When they bought IH, they made it clear how competent they were at valuing companies future prospects, eg not at all.
#NeilWoodford & Craig Newman his business partner #WPCT have paid themselves dividends of almost £100m since the business was founded. Now, why does that not surprise
IT, "...and even one that undeniably works, Proton or whatever its called, now may not actually make money"....neither at this moment does Netflix or Uber but the market gives them a high value................ who knows where WPCT is going...... its just the high risk component of a balanced portfolio......
bestintown, this has been the issue with this for a while; valuations.
They can't be trusted and the majority don't care who's valuing them, after the IH hike.
It's exactly this and Woodford's shuffling amongst his funds and then listing in the Channel islands, which has led to his downfall.
If he was not very well known, the vast majority would be calling him a spiv or even a crook, simple as, because he was desperate and basically cooking the books, at the end, imo.
Whereas the polite consensus is that he's just made disaster, naive choices.
I've seen the 3p report and think that while some of it is correct, it's overdone.
While I agree, finding funding without Woodford's hanouts won't be as easy, some stocks have been written down as zeros, purely because they will need funding.
You can't view a lot of the top 10% of the PF as purely fundamental plays and lots of funding is sometimes necessary.
Is this the right time to expect to get funding? is another question.
But I'd put this around the 20-25p mark, myself.
And might take a few in that area.
@bestintown " but do have a belief in the integrity of independent valuers."
Integrity does not equal competence
Go back to what happened with IH.
It was uprated a year ago, with zero news from IH before or since, by 3.5x.
Then it was downrated, from memory by half, again with zero news from IH before or since.
Buying it involves a belief that pretty much everything we know about modern physics aint so. Not just a few bits but pretty much all of it because if IH worked as said then a whole lot of stuff that we know works, wouldnt.
And bear in mind, IH essentially was started up on the back of the word of a twice convicted fraudster who wont let anyone closely examine his work or devices, and which if it worked would be out there now pulling in money like nobodies business since you could just use it to produce essentially free electricity. Why isn't it out there just doing that?
So, given the "people of integrity" fell for that like a cheap magic trick, what about all the other startups, what did they promise and why do you think those valuers are competent again, (I dont question their integrity but their competence) to judge those?
Results aka company failures have shown they werent very good at choosing many of the biotech startups and even one that undeniably works, Proton or whatever its called, now may not actually make money.
IT, certainly I don't have inside knowledge of the valuations but do have a belief in the integrity of independent valuers. Of course, they must align to market valuation as determined by fund raising rounds and quoted prices which themselves are subjective. But that is the nature of financial markets.
@bestintown "I have (qualified) faith in the independent valuation process "
If IH is still valued at **anything at all**, then you should have zero faith in all other valuations. If i told you the painting by numbers my 9 year old did was actually a Rembrandt, would you believe me when i said I also had a genuine Picasso?
Secretly we all hoped that Woodford would walk away ... so relief at last that "The Board is in advanced discussions in relation to the ongoing management of the Company's portfolio and expects to be in a position to announce details of the new management arrangements shortly."
There may be kitchen sinking but some write downs have already been taken and I have (qualified) faith in the independent valuation process applied (the valuers have had plenty of notice that a crunch is coming.....)
Who might take over WPCT now that Woodford has thrown in the towel? They certainly won;t be taking in this hassle for no fee.
Admin costs and kitchen sinking will no doubt reduce the value here.