The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Nobody can time the market Rob. We may well have a massive cathartic fall from here, or just bobble along for a few months around this level. It's unlikely to be up, but nobody really knows. Half way through the pandemic crash I did actually sell up. It fell further and I felt chuffed with myself. Started buying back in some favourites around the bottom (lucky guess), but by the time I had got fully invested again, my averages were not far off what I sold for in the first place. It wasn't worth the bother in the end. Just rolling out of low conviction stocks into my highest conviction at lower prices would of been a better strategy.
If you have a 5 year horizon, sit tight and maybe look at ways you can raise some cash to start putting in when the market obviously bottoms and turns.
Just make sure you are in solid well managed companies with a future.
Thanks Fleccy and compound, It is tricky i never know what to do for the best when you see the shares are constantly dropping, noticed the shares and funds have already lost value in the last few weeks, so probably left it too late for selling any off now, i did sell off a few funds a few months ago and purchased more dividend shares, some went ex div beginning of April but didn't reach the highs of last year, so held on to them for the dividend, so think i will just hold all the dividend payments on account until i see a good price for reinvesting, we are well overdue for a good year now, was hoping that would have been this year but seems not ?
cheers
Robleo - the writing was on the wall a couple of weeks ago. I closed out all long positions, taking some losses and cutting short a few profitable positions (inc VOD) that I thought had a lot more legs in them. It was painful, but there’s no point burying your head in the sand when you need to take action.
It’s a tricky one right now though as by open tomorrow VOD is going to be closer to the bottom of its trading range than the top. Even though on the balance of probabilities the direction is going to be down, long term there’s potentially more upside than down, so you might also want to consider fleccys thoughts as well.
I’ve already got my watchlist of shares and potential buy in prices and the subsequent potential profits, losses and yields and will wait for the market to come to me. If it doesn’t then so be it. Balance of probabilities and risk to reward ratios aren’t attractive enough for me at the moment to go long.
"Looks like some damaging weeks/months ahead then guys, do any of you have a good plan for dealing with it, you selling up or buying up or just sit it out and do nothing ?"
Damage? The only time an investor is damaged, is if they're a forced seller while sitting on a paper loss, turning the paper loss into a capital loss. The price could drop to 90p, but it's meaningless to long term holders. I topped up thousands of shares in BT, at 106 and 112p, while sitting on a big paper loss, I wasn't damaged by the paper loss, I used it to my advantage. A paper loss is just a state of mind, what's real is what you do when the price is depressed.
If I'm not too late, could I go for 120p please?
Looks like some damaging weeks/months ahead then guys, do any of you have a good plan for dealing with it, you selling up or buying up or just sit it out and do nothing ?
It's already begun Robina.
VOD is hovering around support at the moment, but no major selling/shorting yet because results are due next week. If it continues to hold up here whilst the markets decline, then after the results come out it will be a prime target for shorters once that risk is off the table for them.
Bad results will get instantly punished, and the price might spike up on good results, but it will almost certainly come down after that.
If results are neutral/steady as she goes and the dividend looks safe then it could be a very nice defensive play when it drops back.
I think we'll have a dramatic stock market fall very soon - not just a few percent.
The main reason is that I need to make some large withdrawals very soon.
When VOD gets to 90p it'll be worth a punt but I won't have any money for that.
Im having a well deserved break from the competition for a couple of weeks as its taken a lot out of me!!
If it's not too late, the guess is 115p.
I think it's time to generally just abandon hope on the broad market for this year. It will just continue downward while the stimulus damage is unwound and virtually all stocks will trend down with it.
Looking forwards, position yourselves in good companies that will survive (good cashflow, low/no debt, future proofed demand), accumulate as you get new cash and wait for the recovery.
I will go for 117.9 please.
The trend is against us at the mo.
The tide will turn in due course.
GLA
I'll go for 118.50p, GLA.
Just like sex, If you have to pay for it, it is not worth having. The article is probably just a load of rubbish that we have heard before for free.
Prediction Guesses for 13/05/22
Friday the 13th so anything goes
good evening all hope we are all feeling hopeful for the week ahead
and welcome back Sotonspike, hope you enjoyed your holidays
not so many participants this week, so maybe a lack of interest :-(
robleo 1.25
offmessage
daniel 1.26
FredRubble
mole_man99
sotonspike 1.30
csdi
cheapsharesboy
Scratch49 123.1
Not the Times article but something that appeared in the FT a couple of weeks back along the same lines.
https://www.ft.com/content/658e0a26-3f85-4a41-9a0a-2d0379dd974d
Sorry em me that's a subscriber only article. Can someone cut & paste the content or give us an idea of the gist? Thanks in advance.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vodafone-struggles-to-dial-up-deals-jgk27wh82
Interesting thread. I think Vodafone looks good against inflation and the general economy and it’s now just a question of timing. The old adage of ‘time in the market’ doesn’t apply right now. I am a buyer and for me it’s about timing….maybe next week or maybe sometime in the next 2/3 months.
There are a few other shares in a similar position.
If we have a few bad days on the markets this share will get hit like any but for me it’s then a buying opportunity. However, like fleccy suggests it’s then a hold term hold (with maybe the odd trading along the way)
GLA
Gary, as we all know Dan and Fleccy have explained their reasons for being in this long term, and as long as they are happy with their investment and dividends here that's all that matters, so good luck to them both, long term of course this may well come good and could work out well who knows, as for me, I will be a bit disappointed if this slips back to last years lows again but may consider topping up and lower my average if that happens, good point about the big investment needed in Germany and also Putins war is playing havoc with the shares at the moment as Dan pointed out, results out this month which will be the decider, so not sure what everyone's expectations are there? will let others give their opinion on that
best of luck
Dan, your welcome mate, and theirs so much going on at the moment it's difficult to say which way anything is going to go short term
Hi all ..
I will give sp a slight rise at 123.1
Hi all...Back from hols what a week that was.....the only stock i made any money was on BP...apart from that it was all down hill....anyway enough of the moaning ....next weeks finish i will have a punt on 1.30 if it hasn't been picked yet....
"Any guesses why the sp is diving" Putin's Russia. Which effects Germany of course. The whole of Europe is suffering from Putin's Russia.
robleo. Thanks again & well guessed scratch. I will go 1.26 again for next week please. ----- By the time the young one's on here end up in an old peoples home, they will probably have mobile phones implanted in there brains!
Rob - "Massive profits for telecom" Don't make me laugh.
VOD gets a large proportion of its income from Germany.
I read that VOD Germany needs upwards of ten billion investment, yes billion euros investment to stand still.
Where's that money coming from?
Oh yes the shareholders in respect of dividends which may reduce again or borrowing to add to the enormous pile there is already.
Any guesses why the SP is diving? As above.