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was only joking csdi, good luck with poly, sb sounds too complicated for would probably lose my shirt
Dan you maybe saying sack nick yourself after next weeks results, but i hope not
Hi Dan
I'm down about 10-15% with POLY.
Only got 500 shares at average cost 294p.
Annoyingly I had 500 at 220p early March, but sold at a loss when they got rejected from FTSE Russell.
I thought I would not be able to sell them later, but misunderstood the RNS. Hey ho we live and learn.
Only got two shares atm, POLY & PSN - also down about 5%.
The old school report applies - Teacher says "Must do better"
Cheers for now and fingers crossed VOD returns to higher SP for you all - but not until I've bought some down here - CSDI
CSDI. more like like 1/1000. Along with sack Nick, sack Nick. Sounds like a parrot? How are your poly shares doing by the way??
Sorry Rob
POLY shares are needed for my "Get Rich Slowly" scheme.
I'm looking at a possible 5 bagger vs a 100% loss.
Will just take longer than anyone wants.
Too many short-term traders around, rather than LTHers.
It's a toss between LLOY and VOD for my trading share.
Thinking of putting funds in a SB account in due course, as short term trades more cost effective that way.
Currently using a demo account with CMC to refresh my memory on how it works with spreads, financing and margin etc
Generally we are in a pretty uncertain time now, so we may have to suffer some more downdays but hopefully better days will follow. Sometimes it's a case of timing the market, and others time in the market.
The former is relevant to trading and the latter for investing.
Hope your shares delivering the income you seek. I'm always keen to suggest research of Stephen Bland (aka PYAD) and his high yield portfolio philosophy for those with a capital sum to invest. Just an idea with sound principles but not for everyone's taste. A couple of other income shares for consideration are SUPR and AEWU in property sector, NCYF in fixed interest. Of course all come with usu caveats and risk warnings etc.
Cheers - C
Csdi, you better sell those poly shares and get back in here, you know you want to, sold mine a week later, chickened out, was affraid of losing my beer money lol
The odds of Mikey saying we will finish in the Red each day .... maybe 1/100
No odds offered on Mikey calling it the other way.
The actual odds of finishing in the red each day = Evens maybe
GLA - C
Robina, I used to have 11 funds with hl, have recently sold off 4 and bought more dividend stocks instead, they used to be very good, making more profit than the shares until a few months ago when the u/s tech stocks went out of fashion, since then i have been watching the profits draining away from them, it seems like the fund managers have done nothing to rebalance the stocks to stop this happening, makes you wonder what we have been paying the management charges , for, think i may be saying goodbye to a couple more
Robina, Vanguard Lifestategy funds are worth a look IMO. They have very low charges & they are a buy & forget, I buy direct through Vanguard in ISA's in order to keep charges even lower, 0.22% I think.
I would advise drip feeding money in & buying some of their 60%, 80% & 100% funds, dependant on your appetite to risk of course.
They have done us very well indeed over the years, not so good recently but no worse than any other fund or share.
Then usual doing your own research caveat applies.
Odds of finishing in the red 1/10. Well although it was very close, he wouldn't make a very good bookmaker.
Hi Robina. I hope you don't mind me saying, but you do come across as someone who thinks whatever you do, the opposite is bound to happen? I would suggest therefore that the stock market is probably not right for you? Just a thought?!
Odds on finishing in the Red ?
1/10
It's indeed true that charges especially in HL are excessive.
I've made more in funds that individual stocks on which I am deeply in the red on every one except Shell.
However, what gets my goat with the funds is that the managers knew the market was massively overvalued but made no moves to cash in. So like most PIs they've sat and watched a 30-40% decline since last Sept. Likewise I knew I should have sold last autumn but didn't FFS.
"After that the money will be invested in funds where I only have to periodically review the strategic allocation and performance of my investments and my own personal and financial plans."
I don't like funds, although things have moved on a lot since we last invested in one, but the charges are excessive in my opinion. Why not build a portfolio of "safe" dividend stocks, in your ISA's, and review them peridically as you would do in a fund?
Depending on the size of your investments, Fund charges can be excessive; For example, my wife and I have £450,000 invested, and Hargreaves Lansdown would charge us £1,625 in fees if the whole amount was in one Fund, but we couldn't do that as we'd have to transfer seperate ISA's and cash out shares in a standard share dealing account. It would be likely we'd either have to give up on the ISA's, or have three seperate funds at the full fee rate of 0.45% up to £250,000 per fund; So the fee's would likely be £2025, instead of our current total admin charge of £72 (£36 per account). All this is assuming we could transfer the ISA's, and keep the current tax free benefits.
Over a period of time, we do plan to Bed & ISA the shares in my wife's standard share dealing account, leading up to her receiving a state pension. I don't trust Fund Managers, and therefore would rather have full control over our investments, and decide the balance of how much dividends we reinvest, or take in income, as they become available. Because I only trade occasionaly, and don't mind sitting on a paper loss, I find it relatively stress free.
Conpound I think what you say makes sense. For the hours one has to put into share research one might as well stack shelves. You can't lose on that.
Fleccy - if the dividend income you are getting is sufficient to maintain the lifestyle you want without too much work or stress then you are doing the right thing and ignore most of what I say!
Dan - yes you can gain a statistical edge in the market if you put the hard work in. You need an understanding of macro economic events, sector trends and detailed company information and then blend that with the price action (charts) to try and pin point entry and exit points. It's not one thing - it's all of them together. You also need to realise that the best you can hope for is a statistical edge and you'll never be right all of the time. That's why single shares are hard work as you need to stay on top of it, and also risky as no matter how much work you put in you could be wrong and need to be prepared for that.
I've had a great in terms of returns, but I couldn't keep this up forever as it's time consuming and stressful. I'm waiting to take advantage of one more crash (it will happen whether it's this year or in 3 years time) and then I'm done. After that the money will be invested in funds where I only have to periodically review the strategic allocation and performance of my investments and my own personal and financial plans. I won't make anywhere near the same money, but I will save my sanity and be comfortable with the range of potential outcomes.
Dan of course i am, i don't know the answers so i have to try and find someone who does, any clervoiants here ?
"At 130p with a 9c div @120 GBP/EUR it offered a 5.77% yield.
If interest rates increase by 1%, then in order to maintain its risk premium the yield would need to increase to 6.77%.
If the dividend remains flat, then the only way the yield will increase is if the price drops, and in this case it would need to drop to 110.78, and if interest rates increase by 2% then the price would need to drop to 97.40."
Compound I'm sure you're correct in your maths, without checking, but I look at the dividend income, and make a determination that the companies I invest in are relatively safe. Most retail investors don't look at risk weightings, etc, I just look at the income I can generate from the investment, and decide if there's value in the current price based on historic prices and other factors. I don't have an investment window, so I can hold until the day I die, therefore I will take the dividends on offer until the price is right.
Hi mole-man. You say make sure you invest in solid well managed companies with a future, but how do you identify these companies? It's all down to your opinion, which may be right, or wrong? I think fleccy would describe vodafone as a solid well managed company with a future, bit I gather you wouldn't? You also say put your money in when the market obviously bottoms & turns, If it was that obvious then we would all be rich. It's a bit like saying make sure you back a winner?
Hi robleo. You are asking for that crystal ball again? If you believe in charts etc, then perhaps compound has the answers. I just live in hope, so wish me luck, I think I need it.
fleccy. Now you really are worrying me when you say the price could fall to 90p, but it's meaningless to long term holders. I am a long term holder, but it certainly isn't meaningless to me. If the sp falls to 90p, there may be a good reason for the fall, divi cut perhaps? & there is no guarantee the sp will come back up again. When the sp was £2.40 & the divi was higher, the fall from there was not meaningless. Although I am a long term holder, I intend to sell at least some eventually, you can't take it with you! With respect, you do seem to have blind faith sometimes? But I hope your faith will come true?
Keeping things in in the overall global context, VOD has 'survived' quite well probably as a consequence of the dividend.
Problem is at the moment, whatever dip you buy it's likely to suffer a lower one.
Over the long term of course a few pence here and there it doesn't make much difference.
You’re right Fleccy - reinvested dividends make a huge difference to total returns. Take BATS as an example - nothing special looking at the price chart, but when you add in reinvested dividends over the last 20 years it’s one of the best performers in the FTSE for total returns and gives US markets a run for their money.
The only potential issue with dividend shares is that with rising interest rates they may suffer from yield decompression.
Take VOD as an example.
At 130p with a 9c div @120 GBP/EUR it offered a 5.77% yield.
If interest rates increase by 1%, then in order to maintain its risk premium the yield would need to increase to 6.77%.
If the dividend remains flat, then the only way the yield will increase is if the price drops, and in this case it would need to drop to 110.78, and if interest rates increase by 2% then the price would need to drop to 97.40.
I can’t see any companies increasing their dividends by enough to maintain the risk free premium. In the case of VOD that would mean a 17.3% increase in the dividend just to cover a 1% increase in interest rates.
I agree that tech is more vulnerable as those valuations use discounted cash flow models whose valuations can change even more dramatically with increases in interest rates. Those models also use expected growth rates, and if those start going down as well it could be a real bloodbath.
Powell made it absolutely clear last week that inflation is their number one priority so they are going to continue to raise rates until they get inflation under control. We aren’t going to see the same rate hikes in the UK as the economy isn’t as hot, but that in itself is another problem as we’re potentially heading to a recession much faster than the US, and recessions are always bad for share prices.
All of this has to run its course. Inflation has to come down, even if that means we have a recession.
The wild card is Russia, as peace in Ukraine could see a collapse in commodity prices which would bring down inflation without rates having to go up as much.
If that doesn’t happen in the next few months things are going to get very grim. Markets are tanking after a pretty good earnings season, but the next one in 2-3 months is going to be worse the effect of the sanctions against Russia will hit the top line of lots of companies (wait for the bloodbath in tech when Meta, Netflix etc report a massive drop in users) and high inflation will increase costs and erode the bottom line.
Add into the mix all major indexes are still way above their long term trend line and it could get very nasty this year with drops of 25-30% from current levels.
As I’ve said before, I wasn’t expecting a return to those trend lines for another 2-3 years but we may see it this year/next year unless something changes.
Here we go again - FTSE having a good day , vodafone slowly dropping down into the red . Time for changes at the top !!!!!
"i did sell off a few funds a few months ago and purchased more dividend shares, some went ex div beginning of April but didn't reach the highs of last year, so held on to them for the dividend, so think i will just hold all the dividend payments on account until i see a good price for reinvesting"
Maybe I'm in a minority of one, because I haven't seen any articles with the same opinion, but I see dividend re-investment as a form of Growth. By re-investing dividends, you're growing your shareholding in the company, and grow your reinvested dividend capital gains during price recovery.
The markets are going through a change, with a Trillion Dollars wiped off tech stock valuations over the last week. At some point investors, in utility type stocks with real assets, will reap the benefits of buying while the prices have been low.
Thanks Mole, I get my state pension from the end of July, but don't need to draw anything from my sipp for the first year, but hoping to build it up as much as i can over the next few years, not sure if you consider them the solid well managed company's or not, currently with VOD/LLOYDS/MNG/PSN/PHNX/DLG/LGEN and 7 funds, hopefully next year will be better, surely it can't be worse ?