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Long-term UKX chart indeed looks scary for patterns repeating, but as mentioned a few mins ago, what's different is we have very low UK rates, low sterling, house prices high. Investment cash has to park itself somewhere, so more chance that further falls could be bought back up... short of seismic macro events. But nothing can be ruled out & I'm not assuming anything as 100% over the next year or more due to the fragility of a weak minority British govt. .
Yes, I'm always fearful when a share price support area (but theIndices 200 day ma in this case) gets revisited TOO often. Market lore has it that 2 or 3 re-visits is okay but make a habit of it and ultimately it will get breeched (so I tempered my post by adding a get-out-of-jail-card with "temporary halt" :)
Thanks. I think due to macro-factors like Trump's trade wars & Brexit, I'm disinclined to be too optimistic at this stage. At least until we see further confirmation & more tests. We've seen too many false dawns. But I know you're not assuming anything & you may indeed be right. But no surprise here if it turns out to be another short-lived relief rally. - GL.
How about live & let live. I know some will disagree, but he does no harm. After hours banter mostly. Some interesting points too included within. Some others here also comment multiple one-liners during market hours.
As you know, it's impossible to ramp or deramp any large volume FTSE stock. It's not small cap AIM. Would be good if we could all direct our energies towards making better trading or investing decisions for ourselves. Less of the hate. - GL & goodnight all.
Jack, I'm saying this quiety and gently tonight - but am I taking things too far by viewing today's rejection of the US indices breeching their long term 200 day ma (except for the S&P) and further bouncing off their recent lows - as .... as.... as potentially the floor for this worldwide recent market retrace - until the next cycle commences at least?
Not a recovery, but a temporary halt to further deep dives?
If ftse opened now itd be up 1%. It all depends on asian markets hopefully if they rally then ftse can open up 1.5%. But most likely theyl fall and ftse will open up 0% lol
Yes nice little rise for FTSE futures. Augurs well for some relief buying across some sectors tomorrow. How long it lasts for is another question. Every rise being sold off soon after in recent weeks. - GL.
"At tonight's close of 147 "
Oops - 146p of course!
By, by turkey you will be gone tomorrow & good riddens.
The US markets after scaring the begeezus out of everybody today, re-touched the recent lows and decided against breaching past to further new lows - and came screaming back up by close.
I think here, FTSE in general will not continue retracing tomorrow - and already as I post US and FTSE futures are blue and rising. Now, can it hold and build until the open bell tomorrow? Don't know whether that's of any use to VOD holders and its battles, or even if I'm off piste with this assertion but I may have the little bounce and rejection of the recent Indices lows that I was expecting before the end of this week. I think possibly a blue day tomorrow. We'll see. Could have this all back to front, as it's been a stinking day for VOD. So hard to believe a blue day awaits tomorrow, Wednesday.
I think it's fair to say, the recent fall in VOD's SP is part combination it's own problems added to part of this worldwide market correction. Further retrace by indices appears to have been rejected tonight and I'm optimistic for tomorrow. Maybe any blue tomorrow will reflect a reduction in that portion of the market correction-only effect, leaving VOD with that portion which is of its own making, so any bounce tomorrow is not ring the church bells celebration day, just a breather.
If I end up with egg on my face tomorrow, just file this post under the header: Late night ramblings.
PS. At tonight's close of 147 - that means the forward P/E ratio for VOD is no longer at a huge premium to its sector, no longer "expensive". It's more or less virtually at "fair value" - by P/E ratio standards. If you want it cheap then you need the SP much lower, but as it stands tonight it's neither cheap nor expensive, but as near as damn it, 'fair value' - IMO only.
Thanks. Yes, VG points. It pays to be open-minded. A glance at UKX's long-term chart shows that after 1999’s then record UKX highs, the index briefly flirted close but below those levels shortly before 2008’s carnage & then only beat 1999’s high in 2016. 17 years later. It’s since made number of new highs before retreating recently.
So you’re right about how future sentiment may normalise things at various levels as yet unknown. It could be lower. We could see an angry reaction to Brexit & the Tories trounced at next GE. Then a Corbyn/SNP alliance in No 10, whilst not likely, is by no means inconceivable. That would almost certainly see further huge outflows from markets & the new normal for UKX in a few years time could be little different than now or much lower.
OTOH, at various times since 1999 until recently, we had much higher rates, higher sterling & real estate was more affordable. Where to put cash today? Investment cash has to go somewhere to see solid returns. As long as economies are growing, despite fluctuations & dips, markets will still attract cash. As will yield. That's unless we have seismic shocks such as the one exampled re Corbyn.
Whilst I hold no rose-tinted view for any sharp upside for the FTSE even after Brexit details are finalised, no surprise if we're higher again than recent levels with a sensible Brexit.
As you say, similar re VOD. What seems a bargain to some now may well change for a number of reasons. Even FTSE 100 stocks are far from immune to seismic changes in valuation as we've seen happen to banks, food retailers, certain energy socks, et al. Any number of factors can trigger the changes & occasionally there is no road back. Risk exists.
Does anyone still believe those ludicrous 240p broker ratings now? So glad to have exited from this utter motorway pile up of a share.
Debz? Im too scared itl go bust. I only a 10% rise.
162p mate once im out then 240 or 90 I dont care. But plz 162p first. Last call you can do it I believe in you. 162 plz mate
Itd just be my luck if that was the 2018 low lol.
I brought 30k at 145.23 which was near the low. Sold it 146.4 at break even cos I flapped it. I may have caught the low lol and sold it. 160s in november. Fingers crossed. Come on last call I need 160s pls after that we can take it to 90p
Thanks again. Yes, some very contrarian buys from Woodford at the time & too UK focused, despite growing uncertainties for UK’s wider economy. I think he saw US & Asia as well over-heated & due a sharp pullback. Whereas he considered the UK, with low sterling boosting some sectors, due a more gradual rise. The logic seemed sound, but he obviously badly mistimed his entries with Brexit's uncertainties mounting over some UK sectors, let alone risks of government collapsing.
That said, I think he may well have the last laugh, so to speak, as UKX is back down to levels seen in 1999. May well go much lower, but most likely it will rebound strongly after Brexit as long as rates are low.
In perspective, global markets are also seeing significant reversals, which may well get worse. But it’s a cyclical pattern. In time positive sentiment will return again. Until then, many are getting financially hurt or badly damaged with crystallised losses. So most of us have something to learn.
Some quality posts from you again amid the banter. Appreciated. VG points that make one think, “now how many of us really considered that aspect?” I think that’s only a healthy thing for the overall balance of any BB. Just having that different, well-considered perspective is a plus.
I'm off now for an evening meal. Hope your posts avoid the previous admin's actions as they contain much of interest.
I expect I'll catch you again soon (but hopefully still as JW). ;o) Regards & GL.
True. They make some awful calls, as do some major investment funds like Woodford's. So sne does wonder about the quality of their research compared with their ample resources. However, if I join you in calling them "blind idiots", what would they call me & a myriad others? Lol! Less said the better.
What explains my aversion to stops is when I look back on my significant losses with leverage, nearly every position (with exceptions) that got stopped came into profit a while later. Had I not been stopped I'd have avoided a loss with SBs now running into 5 figures. That partly explains my different fortunes with real shares.
But as you'll appreciate, the key thing with leverage if avoiding tight stops is ample margin & avoiding adding to losing positions after a certain point, no matter how tempting. That can take some painful losses before the lesson is truly learned. - GL.
Agreed. Many retail investors, but in fairness even some pension funds, are getting badly burned for being lured into high yielders without going through reports wth a fine toothpick. We see it all too often, especially across FTSE 100.
Yes, profit targets are key for some of us. Frankly, I've never invested, bar when enforced to for making mistimed calls. Then I sit & collect yield, with rare exceptions when I've taken a hit. For eg. I had a torrid time with MRW & EMG over 2 years ago. All posted on this site. MRW made multi-year lows. Still I came away with profits, be it after sitting tight for well over 12 months. That partly explains my otherwise questionable attitude here. Of course it could go wrong, but this is still a profitable company.
Rarely used stop losses, & never with real shares, as I always buy well below L/T resistance levels & the yield offers some token compensation for holding longer. That of course backfires, But so far that's worked for me with real shares for a few year, despite some very poor calls among better ones.
FWIW, traded VOD many times before this collapse, but got too complacent. Lesson hopefully learned.
Catch all later & GL long or short. This game is all about making money & I'll not begrudge an honest trader their success, whichever direction he/she trades in.
I occasionally look in on this board as I was considering buying Vodafone at some point. But I said back in May this would sink into the 150s based on the fundamentals at the time. Truth is Vod is saddled with debt, CEO has helped himself to Â£millions without any performance in SP. Rising interest rates will make the debt even more problematic. Dividend is toast and major writedowns probably on the cards with new CEO IMHO. I'll have another look when it gets into the 120's. GLA of your misguided sheep who think this will get back to 240p. Brokers have taken you for mugs with their buy ratings and 240p targets. Aimho adyor!
One can hardly argue against that in view of some daily volumes behind the falls. Funds are also reducing. Credit as due on your earlier call as, though nothing is a 100% given, few may be that surprised if circa 140 is now tested. Remains to be seen if that holds. Main thing for me is making sure the leveraged side of my exposure here is well margined to protect what I have until sentiment improves. Which it most likely will do. Even if your 127 call is seen first.
One thing I've always believed about markets (& mentioned before), is that as bad as things may seem, they can always get much worse before a decisive turnaround. One needs to be prepared for all eventualities. This applies to VOD no less. Not much else one can do as, unlike many who are selling at loss & many will eventually sell near the floor, I've no intention of cutting my longs at this point.
Thanks for fleshing that point out. Regards.
Interested to know why 183.92? I have longs below that & will eventually exit some at anything around 180. Cheers.
Today VOD fell below support which was established in July 2014
Next stop is 143 established a few months later in Oct 2014
On the monthly chart it also appears very oversold, although this can persist and price can fall further.
You might expect a pullback at some time, although VOD is a bond proxy and if yields continue to rise VOD will continue going South.
Indeed, most do fail. IG recently released some stats confirming 79% of their clients are losers. No surprise. The guys I refer to are not in the 79% if their live trades are to be believed (on another forum). Which most observers tend to. But this is by the by.
As I say, you make some useful observations. Would be good if you posted maybe longer posts, but fewer in number to see how that goes down with others & then maybe you won't get banned or see your posts deleted. Just an idea. Cheers.