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"Moleman, I've scanned through the FY 21 Annual report and Gross debt was €(56,169), with Net debt reported as €(42,047)"
Correction, they were FY20 figures, FY21 figures are lower:
Gross Debt €(52,519) million. (€52.519 Billion)
Net Debt €(40,543) million. (€40.543 Billion)
I don't see any chance of Vodafone breaking up, I just don't understand Moleman's €85 Billion figure. Moleman, if you're correct you should list the various components, with figures, adding up to make your total.
"For the debt remaining to be paid off of €85bn, add together long term debt, short term debt and trade and payables."
Moleman, I've scanned through the FY 21 Annual report and Gross debt was €(56,169), with Net debt reported as €(42,047). Should Vodafone break up, Lease Liabilities are part of the forward looking overall cost of doing business, and spread out over many years, so the €13.032 Billion lease liabilities wouldn't be counted as debt in a break up. If Vodafone broke up, the purchaser(s) would want to run the various businesses on a stand alone basis, and the relevant lease liabilities would be attached, to the relevant business, as part of the deals.
In summary, lease liabilities wouldn't be considered as part of Gross debt, and neither would depreciation, so the only relevant figures are Gross and Net Debt.
Hello all.
You can download VOD 2021 report from investor relations for the balance sheet.
I did include the cash of €5bn at the time. Assumed that all other assets would be bought up in the sale deals.
For the debt remaining to be paid off of €85bn, add together long term debt, short term debt and trade and payables. That’s debt you owe your suppliers. The purchaser won’t want it or will want to knock down the price if you want to pass it on.
I ignored all the other liabilities, but you may not be able to pass those on so the final figure would be lower. Also ignored any tax consequences in the sale which will further erode the final sum.
In conclusion, investors won’t do well from a break up unless purchasers overpay by double, which could happen in a very bullish market. Not today then.
Sorry my cash figure held by vod was wrong, but still a considerable amount & should obviously be taken into account. I did see a figure of 13 billion euro's, but that may be an old figure?
As of H1 FY22, Closing Net debt was €m(44,298). I also don't see where 85.8 billion euro comes from either.
Free cash flow was negative on H1 FY22, at €m(983), but will hopefully be positive for full year results
Hello mole. You forgot to add on the cash that vod would still have of about 15 to 25 billion, what happened to that? Of course the cash isn't sold as you said, obviously kept by the vod shareholders. Come on mole? think about it please?
mole, thank you for that, but I am not sure where you get this debt of 85.8 billion euro from? I suspect though it includes liabilities of about 35 billion which is obviously not the same as debt. I think though we should agree, that mesh was confusing the matter with his asset valuation? Of course as to vod's valuation your 1.24 is spot on according to the L.S.E. share price, but that is obvious, many on here though think it is undervalued. It all comes down to the value of the intangible assets, which as the name implies are intangible, & also the liabilities, which of course as the word also implies, can't be fully evaluated at the moment. I do think many just come up whatever figures suite there argument? I am looking for figures from both sides, because it is the only way to get anywhere near the answer?! cheers.
Sure Dan. I make the assumption that in this scenario the parts of the business are sold for £100bn. That is assets/staff that make that part work, brands that go with it etc etc. The cash is not sold, why buy cash €1 for €1. This gives a pot of €125bn at today's ex rate.
When the parts were sold, the debt was not sold with it. You therefore have to pay off the actual debt, not the net debt. Total actual debt is €85.8bn (long term plus short term plus trade and payables). Leaves €39.2bn or £32.9bn. Divide by shares outstanding actually gets £1.16 a share. I did not account for trade and payables first time round, but think it likely the buyer of a part will not buy the trade debts. If they do they'll pay less.
It's just an exercise and 10 analysts will give you 10 different answers, but I think you'll find they'll be around the current share price was my point, not some value 100% higher. For a sale of the parts that is.
A takeover would be different, but I think any buyer would conclude with all that debt, it's fully priced already.
Hello mole-man. Please can you tell where you get this £1.24 from. If they sell the parts for 100 billion, pay off net debt of 40billion, that equals 60billion, then divide that by the number of shares, which is 27 billion, you end up with £2.22. per share. Apart from the 100 billion for the parts, the other figures ,I just googled, so I think they are correct. As for the 100 billion for the parts, well who knows where that comes from, but it is the figure you used to somehow get to this figure of £1.24. I would be very obliged if you could tell me how you worked it out. Thank's mole.
Hello mole-man. Please can you tell where you get this £1.24 from. If they sell the parts for 100 billion, pay off net debt of 40billion, that equals 60billion, then divide that by the number of shares, which is 27 billion, you end up with £2.22. per share. Apart the 100 billion for the parts, the other figures I just googled, so I think they are correct. As for the 100 billion for the parts, well who knows where that comes from, but it is the figure you used to somehow get to this figure of £1.24. I would be very obliged if you could tell me how you worked it out. Thank's mole.
Fred Rubble. I thought were being rude with your post at 1st, but very funny. You sound like a man though, but hopefully not a mole? (A cave man perhaps). Yabba Dabba Doo.
I did expect the sp to fall today, so I am pleased at the moment, but still worried, lets hope for a good week. I am still baffled however by the big fall after bank of America's downgrade.
feeling confident with 118.45 even though this SP choice has been sandwiched by a ...man and a ...boy!!
Be an interesting week. Was down 1.5% in usa at one point, then up 2.26% after hours. Markets can't quite decide what to do at the moment.
Lots of low predictions this week, Is there nobody out there who can go lower than the evil mole-man? boo-hiss!!
Vod Nasdaq , closed 15.06 usd, but after hours trading showing +2.26% now lets hope % goes higher
Prediction Guesses for 06/05/22
well what next week north or south ?
best of luck all, hope it's not in the 118s will take forever working out who the winner is ?
robleo 1.29
offmessage 1.32
daniel 1.26
FredRubble 118.45
mole_man99 1.18
sotonspike 130
csdi 1.23
cheapsharesboy 118.5
Scratch49 1.20
Hi Dan, well I had no intentions of selling this year anyway, but it reached 142 last year and was hoping this year we could have gone a little higher then next year a little higher again reducing the losses on the capital, if that makes any sense, I have added a cple more dividend shares this year as the prices seemed quite low, think that's the best way to go for me collecting dividends while we are waiting for improvement on the share prices, It's still possible for Vodafone to go higher, but should it drop down again, I will be thinking of making a top up here with the hope of increasing the dividend yield and lowering my average, I'm not one for regular buying and selling that just doesn't work for me, so find it easier to try and improve on what I already have instead, hopefully i won't be going to jail, as the wife is looking for holidays right now, probably going end of June beginning of July before the schools break up
Fingers crossed we can get back on the ladder again
Hi robleo. As you say It's only money? & you do still get £200 for passing go? Don't you? Don't do a Boris though ? Becker that is, & land up in jail? (It is much more than £50 to get out now days)! As for the other Boris? who knows? I am very edgy about tomorrow, so any re assurance would be nice. Soton, I hope you have a great holiday in Norway, but my wife is more into sun, sand, & sangria than Norway, so although I would love to go there, on a cruise perhaps, it's unlikely. Sorry if I am monopoly' ising this forum??!! Sorry, showing my age again, but they don't come up with games as good as that any more?! We just have make do with the stock market instead!
118.45 for me this week. Sorry!!
Hello mole-man, Your post is very welcome to me if correct,because it saves me working it all out. But I would like to point out if your figures are correct you have come with vods tangible net asset value, of about 1.24, far higher than most would think. The intangible net asset value however is considered to be much higher than the tangible net asset value, of course. I think both you & me realise that meshtrader is probable much better at multiple differential equations that he refer'd to in his post, than complex company evaluations. Of course as you know vods tangible net asset value is considered to be far lower than 1.24. Vod is worth what the market values it at. Of course it may be undervalued,as I think,or way undervalued as mesh thinks? Or it may be fair or over valued as you probable think? Anyway as you know I am very positive about vodafone, although it is having a bad run lately. You, I guess are far less positive, but at least your posts make sense. Boo hiss.
So they sell the parts for 100bn, add in the cash, repay the loans, divi up the remainder amongst shares outstanding and it comes to 124p a share. Funny that...
meshtrader. What is this name calling you refer to? You mentioned a bunch of cowboys, & BankofPhuckingAmerica, hardly sounds like the words of someone who has educated them self. I don't know why my age should have any relevance, I don't know how old you are, & frankly I don't care, I just didn't agree with your post, that's all, sorry mate. You said in your post "the sum of the parts is worth in excess of 100billion if they were to sell the lot" So I was merely pointed out, for that to be the case, you obviously need a buyer,or buyers to sell it to, otherwise your valuation is totally meaningless? Who says it's worth over 100billion, or shall we all just take your word for it? Nothing would please me more than to believe vod is worth more than 100billion of course,but it would help if you came up with some evidence? I do of course agree that the current sp undervalues vod, but it might help if you don't exaggerate. As for me sorting myself out & getting a life, I could say the same about you, but why would I? It's a totally pointless comment, & is hardly a comment to expect from someone who is educated & doesn't like name calling ,as you put it?
For someone who appears to be close to his retiring age, you are certainly not demonstrating the kind of life wisdom that should accompany such passing of time. What a shame! For the record, name calling does not fit on these boards.
Allow me to comment on your premises and statements in your argument;
1. "give us a break?" - are you the chairman of this commentary board? Are you the elected nominee to opine on behalf of others?
2. "this is the stock market, You sound like a cowboy, Stop as this bull ****? " - (i)Thanks for reminding me and others that we are talking about the "stock market". (ii) You seem to know a lot about me. I suppose you are equipped with higher powers than us mere mortals. (iii) If you believe behind the counter wheeler dealers are not taking you to the cleaners on a daily basis in this "stock market", then you have certainly, and sadly, not learned much about the markets.
3. "We are all cowboys, trying to make money, so don't pretend otherwise?" - A false statement. Interesting how you label people who make an effort to legally extract profit from an investment as cowboys.
4. "I agree about vodafone & I am a big ,supportive / share holder, so please come up with some constructive comments?" - Sadly, you don't seem to comprehend the mechanics propelling the markets and the role its agents play in it. Nothing for us to discuss. It's like asking me to teach you multiple variable differential equations when you just learned 1+1=2
5. "So, vod sells for 100 billion? to who? Complete nonsense? If any of you wise guys have a better plan than Nick Read, then let us know please, because if not you are just a load of know nothing idiots." - (i) In my comment, I was referring to its parts being worth in excess of 100billion. (ii) The market is made of different opinions. You may find it ridiculous that I find its parts to be worth a lot more than the current market estimations. As for mr Read, his days are numbered and activists investors such as Gardell will take of that. CFO's rarely are optimum candidates to lead telecom, tech, science, engineering companies. They may maintain the status quo, but they are rarely visionaries, simply because of their fundamental lack of appreciation of the underlying components thrusting their respective businesses. Best and most recent example is Tim Cook. Nothing revolutionary has come out of apple since Steve's passing. Mr Read is a number cruncher who loves to play the diplomat/politician game.
My final remarks, UK suffers from weak shareholders across the board, hence the relative weakness in visions and ownership.
And Daniel, sort yourself out and get a life! My advise, start by educating yourself first.