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Dipped my toe in the water here today having been watching for a while.
P/E, PEG, ROCE, cash in the bank and a reasonable dividend all make for good reading. A profitable company during turbulent times and as AIM shares go, a low spread. Above all, directors with skin in the game.
Maybe not a trading share, but with the new distribution centre well underway and continued growth, the dreaded FOMO kicked in.
From a cash perspective the company is looking incredible, but I'm just curious on whether the company can continue the momentum from Covid, and gain a larger market share. I plugged some numbers into my valuation template and forecasts a 30% growth for the next 5 years, with the new warehouse and facilities being built. We're looking at a potential value of £2 per share, I believe this needs to take consideration of the next earnings, and will be the catalyst.
The markets currently pricing in a 11.5% growth rate for the next 5 years, putting the share price on track, which looks reasonable.
If you believe that purchasing bathrooms online will grow more than 11.5% over the next 5 years then this is a strong buy, but considering companies like eve sleep and purple bricks who tried the transition to pure online selling and failed then this is a speculative.
I believe the next earnings report will answer many questions, with a key focus on what they are doing with their cash and will they exceed growth targets. However, there growth strategy seems like its working, I'm sitting on a weak buy
Stock Ticker VICTORIAN PLUMBING GROUP PLC (XLON:VIC)
Current share price £0.83
52 week high £0.95
52 week low £0.33
Growth Rate (yrs 1 -5) 30%
Growth rate (yrs 6 - 10) 15%
Discount Rate 10%
Terminal Value (multiple of FCF) 12
Year 0 Free Cash Flow £14.00
Stock based compensation £3.90
Net Cash/(Net Debt) £35.50
Shares outstanding 325.2
Present Value of Future Cash Flows (Millions) $568
Intrinsic Value (Millions) $603
Intrinsic Value (per share) $2
Current Margin of Safety % 55%
Margin of safety
10% $1.67
20% $1.48
30% $1.30
40% $1.11
50% $0.93
...from 93p to 69p in 3 months, during which time we've had a strong trading update....
Bizarre.
£5 mill sold. Negligible bought. So SP fall no surprise..
and also sub 34p as recentlyas Oct - made a fair bit and out for a pullback which no doubt will come later in the year.
Yes looking at share price, I thought I had better check for a poor RNS - nothing to see. I keep reminding myself that the IPO was at 300p.
VIC's caught the Monday blues - down 5.5% as I write, for no particular reason.
Suppose it's had a good run and some profit taking was inevitable.
And nothing goes up in a straight line, esp these days!
up 8% now. Very nice
Although only half eight, current volumes indicate profits being taken already from the rises over the last few days. Am looking to top up but will wait a bit.
Up 6%
Board proposes maiden ordinary full year dividend of 1.1p and an additional special dividend of 1.7p. And no doubt there will be more and more special dividends in the pipeline. UK biggest plumbing outlet.
going up strongly.
semms to be holding up well.
back to £1.00 for sure. Looking to cheap at this level. Fill them boots
Great set of results given current climate and a divi, debt free and robust start to 2023, strong management team whats not to like :-) £1 will seem like a real bargain in the not to distant future. GLA
The housing market is slowing as people are hunkering down for a tough year or two. For this share, perhaps it means more people will refurbish their existing homes rather than move. When people do move they often refurbish bathrooms too but it takes a while as they are skint from the costs of the move.
Lovely.
I guess the money you save on going to food banks can buy you a whole new bathroom suite.
buys coming in now...
Hard to believe in this environment that people are buying taps and plumbing stuff, but they are. VIC is looking very good.....fill your boots. Good call from Motely Fool..top 10 share for 2023
Results ahead of expectations, with H2 revenue growth as the Group demonstrates continued trading momentum and further market share gains, supported by a robust balance sheet.
That's nice
If you delve into the cost base main element is increase in marketing costs and positioning business in terms of a potential recession.
Considering the cost of living crisis affecting all businesses this is a stellar report and a well positioned business.
Survival of the fittest.
Well done Mark Radcliffe.
Strong start to 2023 too.
The Group has had a strong start to FY23 with 10% revenue growth to date, whilst maintaining H2 gross profit margin and with lower marketing spend versus the comparative period last year
Bull & bear case for any stock makes a market
Not so sure about that EBITDA down 51 % on last year?
Whilst revenue in line with last year rising costs reducing GM
Only reason they are paying divvy is to offer sweetener
AIMHO