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Let's 'discuss' Loxley. Always better to talk about something far in the future with hardly any information than the flagship Horse Hill Field - which strangely we hardly know any more about.
Loxley is about 7 km east of the 'discovery' well - Godley Bridge-1. That well was followed by Godley Bridge 2 and then 2z - nearby but unsuccessful because of difficulties with mapping / depth conversion. Alford further east and to the south of the Loxley location was also unsuccessful.
Godley Bridge was never developed because of mapping uncertainty.
In the 2018 CPR Xodus would not calculate anything for Loxley based on UKOG maps because of shortcomings. They have now produced the GIIP and recoverable resources in a 'volumetrics study', the mean recoverable net to UKOG being 34BCF - but not of CPR standard - pity they didn't publish the study.
So what's the risk of confirming the GIIP quoted, of confirming the recovery quoted and the deliverability being economic?
You quote a SP of 1.2p which equates (with the current shares) to about £150mm just for Loxley planning permission. Before the planning meeting there was a massive P&D here and on twitter which also included a 4 tanker 'sighting' on 23rd June which was seized upon, the price rose above 0.5p the next morning. On the day of the planning meeting (29th June) the highest buy price was about 0.4p, prior to the P&D the SP was above 0.2p.
Following the planning meeting the SP has dropped from 0.27 (close 29/06) due to the admission on 30/06 that the HH-2z water issue had re-emerged and an initial raise of £2.2mm for Turkey at 0.16p, lack of information about the HH-1 workover and HH-2z hasn't helped.
UKOG has since then announced the well won't be drilled until H2 2021, though UKOG has rarely managed to keep to planned timings - so plenty of time to jump on the Loxley bandwagon.
Why would the SP rise to 1.2p just on receipt of planning permission - in December? January?
Monday - July HH-1 production figures, and maybe a RNS about the workover?
Put me down for 0.00. Finished.
What about lockdown next week ? How badly will affect the share price ?
ocelot
Admire your post, your the eternal optimist .
Even bad news could be better news .
LOL.
Yes, expectations low, so good upside potential on positive news or even simply less bad news than anticipated.
Sorry, mine was genuinely in Turkish Lira, as he's got more chance of production there (actually 0.10p).
Maybe it is good that they're predicting a low price based on last year the actual price went the opposite way to the prediction's.
Hopefully it will happen again.
Mirasol 30-Oct 0.1275
Cynderlad 30-Oct 0.0915
Tymers 30-Oct 0.0800
Nomlungu 30-Oct 0.0078
Skwizz 30-Oct 0.0011
Consolidation is begging to be next on the agenda,so1£ might not be a bad guess .
Rhymers
Maybe I should be more specific £0.0010
Tymers
Tymers Premium Member
Posts: 3,807
Price: 0.1375
No Opinion
RE: Christmas SweepToday 11:31
Prediction 0.08 possibly lower.
Could you please clarify if all your numerous original posts were intended to have the decimal point in the wrong place & now you new projection is below 0.10p
? 0.0011 (Turkish Lira).
I dont see a de-list happening in 2021. Can never say never though.
Yeah I expect so, delist and lock up shop in 2021... SS free money for nothing has gone.
It could go much lower than 0.08, but it could rally to 0.2p also.
A few factors to consider.
Loxley - 27th Nov - will it get approved?
HH1 work-over RNS - what is the story?
OGA stats - is oil down and water up?
You can of course ignore my £5 post earlier.
I'll go for 0.0915p for close ahead of Xmas.
Prediction 0.08 possibly lower.
"From every sinlge one of his previous predictions over the past 14 months, the actual SP has been between 7x and 10x lower,"
What is really bad is that all the "masked trolls" and "derampers" also get it wrong - but they are only twice as optimistic as reality. Time and again UKOG manage to under perform even the most awful predictions..........
£5 lol
Mirasol,
I will wait for Tymers to post his 'informed' prediction (ahem, wild guess).
From every sinlge one of his previous predictions over the past 14 months, the actual SP has been between 7x and 10x lower, and these pevious attempts have proven to be a reliable and accurate indicator of the likely reality here, factoring in for this discount. The 'Tymers method' is clearly the future of SP predictions. :-)
gla
0.0078p
deeply discounted placing expected to buy the xmas turkey
After last years one of HH2 flow rates (???) lets go for the price on Christmas Eve
Entries open until midnight on Nov 6th, what will be the Share price at 16:00 on the 24th December 2020 quoted on LSE
I'll open at 0.1275 p