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https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/25/paack-pulls-in-a-225m-series-d-led-by-softbank-to-scale-its-e-commerce-delivery-platform/amp/
Invest in Paack which is essentially a green net zero version of DHL
Again Paack is just the last mile courier but doesn’t do much of the upstream stuff
So again who is the keystone that ties Paack back to the retailer? It’s Ingenuity and then Fir/ST can also be used to implement Autostore for them
The more and more you look at the SoftBank collab you see ingenuity is the keystone that ties them all together. This is another example
Great find Dan, thanks for sharing. your comments and analysis/ article sharing is much appreciated, and better than the crap so many trolls throw out here based on no analysis
please do keep it up
No-one is buying it for that reason? Part of the reason they are likely buying is RBC have now corroborated Softbanks view of ingenuity by valuing it at £4.4 billion and also said they believe softbank will follow through.
You could ask the same about any analyst and any stock
HeresHopin
Kall´s job right now is to keep anyone from buying and to maintain the sense of fear and risk .... his bonus depends on it
Innovation is on sale .... the future actually depends on it ...
“ I think I have said this before but buying an asset on speculation that someone else would buy an asset at a higher price is not investment.”
No this is how shares work. Surely you’ll want to sell your Primark shares for a profit? Or are you holding them as fun tokens? What rubbish this was!
RBC’s model is their own IP. They publish the output via their note. Same as you doing your research and then coming on here telling us somehow “twice as big shoe stores mean twice the catchment area” yet we’ve seen nothing to support that
Also that online was good for shoe yet it’s the same custoemrs returning to store so in effect you’re winning no new customer but just doubling up costs of stores and online
Where is the research to show us different? No where. You just drop a thread when you’ve been shown up. Same as when I told you the benefit of ingenuity and you were clearly seeing it!
RBC’s skin is the analysts careers. Research is seperate trading desk (usually a seperate floor and passes etc won’t allow research to go anywhere near trading). So if an analyst writes rubbish the answer is he lossss credibility and doesn’t work again as no one will buy the research
Not really a great motive for him
The whole point is that RBC has no skin in the game, and are therefore independent. There is no motive for them to write anything other than an objective appraisal, as may not be the case for anyone financially intertwined with the company.
Essentially RBC have identified an opportunity with vast upside, prudently targeting £5, though they cover the below scenarios under best/worse case scenarios. 20p drawndown for 480p upside. I wouldn't fancy being short here on that skewed risk/reward- no wonder they are closing.
"
Downside scenario
In this scenario, we assume Group revenue growth and margin in FY22 is below market expectations and that the market attributes negative value to Ingenuity in the event that SoftBank walks away from its deal with THG. This would imply
a fair value per share of 100p.
Upside scenario
In this scenario, we assume a more positive growth outlook and margin performance for the THG Beauty and Nutrition
segments, raising their respective valuations. This would imply a fair value per share of 600p.
"
Ford have had to stop taking orders for pickups the demand is so strong
American Express reports that spending is "robust" across its cards
the shorters here are waiting for the BOD update and are no doubt using retail short positions as a hedge against Long positions elsewhere ...
Interest rate will go up from the FED...life will go on... money will be spent..peole will get going for the Spring
and Putin will make an agreement with Biden and the Western Allies
I agree. Om confident here but he does put his foot in it and really needs a better IR director and chair. He should just focus on the underlying business which despite the rest is doing very well
His mummy getting invomved is pathetic and not sure many CEOs would let that happen with their mummies. Who is going to open their gob next haha
His mother writing to Oliver Shah (who has been negative and almost hateful towards Matt Moulding to an absurd degree) is nothing to do with THG, literally an incident between 2 individuals. People write to journalists often, perhaps she reads the times too?
I think Andy Murray´s mum was much behind him and Richard Branson´s mum was very much behind him....
Dont under-estimate the value of a good mother´s support ...you go girl !! lol
They just want to create Mail Online type gutter press nonsense ....
Kall
I suspect analysts 6-9 months ago didn't put any forecasts of inflation into their analysis or indeed considered many other outside factors ....they tend to just look at the basic company performance and balance sheet stuff ....
They also of course have an agenda based on who is employing them
Same with the likes of Goldman Sachs ..their forecasts for inflation last April were miles out...and they spent the next 6 months correcting it ...
So softbank valued ingenuity at £4.5 billion and RBC now values it at £4.4 billion and the market currently values it at £0 but we should pay this no attention?
You seemed to suggest the analyst was compromised somehow, but you could make the same argument for every single analyst report out there who all have clients invested so the analysts should all be wildly over-the-top positive to get these share prices up but it doesn't work like that.
So Kallu you're ignoring all the other points you've been proven incorrect on?
On the analyst they aren't fired for being wrong. What you stated was they were being fraudulent ie stating a target so their trading desk would win work
You're mixing two different things because again you're just throwing stuff taht you don't really understand at the wall
"This is called investment." - so dying before you have realised the gain? That's not investment that's wasted money!
"I either do my own modelling or read a report with models any sweeping claim that a certain company is worth this " - can you share your model for shoezone with added online costs and also the returns not going via stores. Also with the sensitivity of losing half the customers when half the stores close (as twice as big a store doesn't mean twice the catchment - so customer is lost of shops online)
"Ofcourse I see that but it's not too different from a system integrator" - which system integrator owns the warehouse? Also THG built and owns the tech. They own the marketing content and create it. They own the fraud detection. They can deply in 12 weeks vs c.12 months for system integrators. Which system itegrator has ever built their own billion pound business (never mind two). Which system itegrator can do retailer to last mile?
I look forward to examples
Well I want to sell when the price is high. Like 99% of investors. I’m not a pirate so don’t need to bury Primark stock certificates
You asked Zeus? The nomad? They are a referee of aim rules. They aren’t management or sector experts. Also that data reference is old it’s not modelling forward the impact of half the estate closing! So it’s daft, a bad data point and not a model which you claimed to do!
If returns aren’t going via store they will charge. Exactly. They already do and it has a huge increase to the price of the shoe. But again that cost (£2.50) atm just pays Hermes. What have you modelled for damage to stock? Extra returns staff? Cleaning of product? Also customer service?
Where have you modelled these additional FIXED costs
So they close stores one year and have to reopen next. Do management understand their own custoemrs? From what you’re saying they don’t know how this will go it’s just slash and see?
Autostore is one tiny part. And ingenuity was working and selling 10 year contracts way before Autostore. Autostore is actually atm only in THG beauty warehouse so not actually in the ingenuity network anyway!
So if all the other stuff is so easy why have you not explained why ingenuity can do all this for you anywhere in the world in 12 weeks yet everyone else is 12 months?
Can you give an example where anyone else can do that? If you’re a U.K. business and have U.K. integrators how do you open in Japan? You’d have to procure new consultants and do the whole thing again and then have to wed the two opposite systems together just to get basic MI
With ingenuity Japan is sorted in 12 weeks
Tell me anyone else who can do that
Debenhams had a website built in weeks and plugged into an existing warehouse. The stock it sells is boohoo own brand or marketplace products which it doesn’t touch so it’s a terrible example
All boohoo had to do with Debs was build a website the back end system already existed
Want to try another example and then again where they can do this overseas over and over
Here’s a few quotes
Elemis first site in Germany was May-20 and then 15 more localised sites and delivery in 10 months. Elemis on their own said it was initially a 5 year plan
Again you miss out the whole end-to-end by just giving one company who does one bit as fast. But this is the point you get the whole thing, ready to go, anywhere in the world in 12 weeks
Salesforce does one bit. Where is the integration to the courier? Where is the integration to the PIM? Where is the integration to a physical warehouse? Actually where the hell did the Japan warehouse just show up from? Where is the customer service? Where is the website in Japanese? Where are the localised payment options? Where is the integration to the WMS?
How on earth does all that happen just by buying salesforce? And again you can get a consultant to help (so won’t be 12 weeks as you’ll spend a month just picking this!) and then how does that consultant help you get all 15 locations done in 10 months. So that less than 1 with ful localised offering and delivery
And what about afterwards? When you’ve got all these different providers who in earth do you call when something goes wrong?
This is the part where you tapped out last week
" Will reply after filing my tax return, Mrs is on my back to file on time."
Kall,
lol....When you put that into Google Translate..it comes up as
" I dont have any answers at the moment, so I will need some time to conjure something up..."
Because he’s stumped. He thought it was just the tech. When ingenuity is the marriage of tech, physical assets and content with speed and global reach
Get another example of anyone who can do all that end-to-end and in 12 weeks
Kallu i'm genuinely impressed with your call on this and boohoo, youve been spot on. Selling is relentless.
I'm running on fumes with this share, im down shed loads. cant even get a spike to sell some into.
Id say im now stranded into a very, very long term hold with the constant prospect of complete capitulation. Fed up with management, some even selling their shares at this level. At the minute the whole show seems about as credible as ten downing street.
AndItsGone - you're impressed by a paid de-ramper who is trying to scare you out of your position at a loss? Read Kallu's posts...every single one is negative and it ranges across whatever is happening. That is not a fellow investor with a sceptical outlook...that's someone either being paid to post negative speculation or else who has a short position on.
CharlieSays yep, he is not here to help you , only to cause distress/anxiety.
Another disappointing day as a THG shareholder
But at least you're not this buyer/wholesaler - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60218573
Lovely jubbly Rodney!
Just reread the latest trading update and gives me great confidence and comfort to ignore the negative posts as business is doing well and looking forward to seeing what MM has up his sleeve