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Exploration. It seems morocco have consultants working on the LNG project. Any news from morocco on this? Thanks
Medi, is no relation there is no LNG, at this moment.
Only one producing well TE-7.
Dire emergency it isn’t impossible TE-6 flow gas. Also a lower flow rate. wasn’t tested as robustly TE-7. However, never drilled as to be a producer. Hence, almost next-door find TE-7.
I don’t recall TE-5 ever being reworked isn’t their some bit of kit down the hole that needs got out? Or some formation damage, someone remind.
Te5 was a vertical well the Horst but debris was left in the hole which hampered flow rates making it sub commercial from memory.
Although Algeria has a lot of gas, increasing domestic consumption and declining production means their export capacity is a concern + subsidised domestic gas prices aren’t helping. So Morocco must think ahead in terms of energy strategy.
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Algerian-Gas-in-Transition-NG-151.pdf?v=79cba1185463
LNG and FSRU are not related to tendrara gas; it is the potential substitute for it (import from outside).
In reply “”1. there is a need for gas in Morocco (how much?). “Correct.”
2. A diversified supply is through LNG import (fact) “Is no importation LNG. At this moment and even when built expect compete with a billion dollar supply chain?” “From location middle no where?”
3. Even an FSRU (cost effective) is not economical at low send out (100--200 mmscf) “if infrastructure were at no cost. Some money better than none at all.”
4. in 2021, morocco will own the Maghreb Europe pipeline. “correct. And your point?”
5. Morocco will get fees for the transit. Likely to be in kind “reduction in gas prices.” “this pushes our gas price down.”
6. But morocco wants some "independence" from Algeria gas. “correct.” “ However, not at any cost and someone else has to pay and take the risk of a one hit wonder: one well producer.”
7. therefore, tendrara gas although one source helps in the above (a combination with Algeria gas is better that 100% from Algeria) “Refuse to factor in risk.” “Would you in all honesty put your hand in your pocket and pay the pipeline costs based on one producing well?” Not that many brave these days.” Just plain deny the risk element.
1. there is a need for gas in Morocco (how much?).
2. A diversified supply is through LNG import (fact)
3. Even an FSRU (cost effective) is not economical at low send out (100--200 mmscf)
4. in 2021, morocco will own the Maghreb Europe pipeline
5. Morocco will get fees for the transit. Likely to be in kind
6. But morocco wants some "independence" from Algeria gas
7. therefore, tendrara gas although one source helps in the above (a combination with Algeria gas is better that 100% from Algeria)
Thanks to all whom contributed to the data I posted.
A question from an early poster about inability to sell the company asset. No one wants to buy stranded gas, it is worthless. Parity with having money and no one wants your cash, hold a few Scottish bank notes soon understand.
A company that I have punted around this board, a to be miner does want gas. Appears to favour LPG. Announce just this morning completion part feasibility study.
This announce threw to the front a question of who else within Morocco, does supply LNG? If this plant were a first and if supply be limited then again risk is high. Unlikely many would take up the supply based on no back-up? Obviously could build storage. Adds to cost, or reduces margins. However, only one source, one supplier is riskier than availability from several suppliers.
I remember one of the directors saying the deal was worth xp per share - I think 17p - which when I adjusted it for the last placing, became just under 16p per share, so that's close to your estimate.
And yet, my impression is that people think SOU shares shouldn't be touched with a barge pole.
DarkEnergy, I would still stand by the filter list except it is hard to understand the negative sentiment that abounds here without glancing at the numerous derampers and trolls every so often.
LW, there are many ways to skin that cat. It's just a range that encompasses several of my own estimates. I am neither an experienced investor nor very financially literate. However, I'm pretty hot on back-of-envelope calculations. For instance, the cash flows on 60 mmcf/day over 17 years ( = 377 bcf) discounted by 10% give an NPV of roughly $1.35 bn. Take SOU's 47% (or 23% or 14%) and you get 63c (or 31c or 19c) per share. Divide by 1.3 and you get 15p/share at the bottom of the range. It's highly unsophisticated and liable to be horribly wrong. As I said, it's back of envelope stuff.
Can you explain the range 15-25 p, ps?
It doesn't have anything to do with 14 vs 23 percent - does it?
PS except for years Trellis was the toxic deramper and would be comedian and JTF was moderately supportive (oh, and would be comedian)
At the time your only contribution was a weekly updated filter list, now it is much more useful
Agree, Boderisimus. The share price isn't a penny ha'penny because of anything the BoD has done. The deal that is still in the offing is worth 15-25p per share. No, the share price reflects shareholder revulsion, and that is the result of sentiment. If you want to gauge sentiment, just read a couple of months worth of posts on here, including toxic little wastrels like JezTheSwizz cheering vindictively for the SP to go to zero.
I've never had strong views on the SAG one way or the other and consequently I have not joined.
However the involvement of Tom Winnifrith has changed my opinion and I now see the TW and SAG combination as something that could be bad for me as a shareholder. Trellis stated that he has had no contact with TW and I have no reason to doubt his word but I fear that TW will seek to weaponise SAG shares against those same shareholders. SAG members should be careful who they get into bed with, be that unwittlingly or otherwise.
PNE79......Cretin is correct, and don't forget Numpty.
Trellis,
You may want to contact Tom and find out what his take on all of this is. His email address is there for those who want to contact him. Regardless of what his motive may or may not be, he just wants to make sure that justice is served and that good, honest PI's aren't being screwed over. SOU will be another scratch in his pad of AIM companies that have failed to deliver on their promise.
I still maintain a target price of 0.0p for this share. I hope and trust Tom will be keeping a very close eye on how things pan-out here and will continue writing his articles about Parsons et al.
Make that two nuggets PNE. At least Trellis is still able to enjoy his wine and maintained his sense of humour and still has the time and energy to search out wannabe number 6.
It's blatantly obvious what TW wants from SAG. He couldn't care less about sound, it's shareholders or the aims of SAG. If he did he would have been in touch with trellis. He wants click bait, a cheap headline and to line his pockets. There is only one nugget on this board who has anything nice to say about that cretin and he can't wait to see sound delisted and all investors out of pocket.
Strange that Jeremy, don't forget your post about being DELIGHTED if sound goes to 0.0p and is delisted off AIM.
Trellis,
Much that we Chuckle Brothers admire you, I hope that your efforts aren't wasted. You are and always will be our ' Chief Alcohol Officer' and there is no doubt, your expertise in wine drinking is second to none. I thought you had already found a 'Wannabe 6'? Good luck with finding one and make sure she doesn't have the coronavirus or else there'll be no more wine drinking to do. I'm still unsure as to why Tom Winnifirth has instructed PI's to go via him and provided his email address, rather than continue to go via your good self? Maybe you should get in touch with Tom and between you, work out who should go after what and the pair of you perhaps combine your efforts. I'd lean on Tom if I was in your position because he can point you in the right direction and open some doors for you that otherwise would remain closed. Good luck.
Trellis,
I admire your tenacity, but I'm not sure you will manage to achieve what you are hoping for via the SAG. My reckoning is that the SOU BOD are in the process of wrapping things up here and will seek a delisting off AIM some time in Q2. It will be one final act to screw over the PI's who have in some cases been very rude and damming towards them. That's maybe where SOUNewCo will come into play, which will be 'Limited' status. The writing was on the wall a very long time ago here and hence why I recommend people proceed with the greatest caution. And of course, the biggest threat to the future here as well as elsewhere is the coronavirus. Those who keep mocking me about my warnings that the virus can potentially pose to stocks and stock markets in general, ought to take a long, hard look at themselves. Believe me when I say that things are going to get very, very messy. I have ordered my protective face masks today and have eyed-up some protective goggles too. Be prepared, folks.
Trellis ,you are right to keep going with your plans. We need some transparency on SOUs future. If your efforts get the BOD to sit down and talk are successful ,you would have achieved much. There is no doubt that money will be a big issue soon, and they will have to make plans, which going on recent results will be secretive and costly.