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They also had 300-odd bcf mid-case estimates for both TE1 & TE4, and SOU even planned to re-enter them originally in 2017, but those plans were binned in favour of going all in on the high risk stuff. Bad call in hindsight, but we all agreed to go along with that plan at the time...
Sounding Off
The Fasnet CPR states following range for prospective resources at SBK in bcf
Min 62 - most likely 205 - max 982
The wide range of resource estimates is driven by the range of bulk rock volume calculated from existing seismic.
Let’s remember the TE-6 and TE-7 well locations and trajectories were determined using 3D seismic. The older 2D seismic over SBK is inadequate to precisely locate new high angle wells similar to TE6 and TE7.
I'm hanging on to see what happens.
Not going private
Not going bust
Not going to dilute
Not going away
Not giving up
Not happy with the SP.
But happy with the Q&A.
Exploration with a total of 40+ TCF goip estimate
Production from A 2C (mid case) recoverable, contingent resource for the TE-5 horst of 377 Bcf.
Supportive cornerstone investor
14% of shares held by funds
Since I posted that I think SBK was upgraded to 600/800bcf IIRC?
Cheers Jones1980, I'll take a gander.
The penny has just dropped Bugatti Chiron, Veyron and BMW M5.....Christ!
Thanks for this Ian. I have the impression that BigMJ only posts on the CERP site when there are many negative posts.
I've only partially escaped since I still have a big SOU holding but if CERP comes good then all will be sweet!
SBK, Chiron and M5 got mentioned several times today. Does anybody have any figures of what they could potentially be targeting?
You are the deluded on crude. He did not say it would prove impossible to fund, And in any case, as I said in post yesterday, A 'smallish' private company will have to raise funds for the deal to progress ( how much I don't know, but it aint a few £M!) Tell me oh wise one, The Failure in his rns re; deal , and in relation to HOT, that $56M, ( £43M) would be needed to 1st gas.
GDin reply to Q) said each exploration drill would cost between £5.3-7.7M. Get a lot of drills for $200M ( yr figure) . And to quote you again '. Besides, who on earth would finance Sound Energy to the tune of $200 million or more..........this deal will go through & we just have to hope that we can retain that 9% & that exploration is able to run in tandem with production. This deal can work if we shareholders are thrown a bone or two........'
Q1) Who on earth is going to lend an unlisted company $200M when it will own a max, eventually, of 33% of License Area.
Q3) 'throw them a bone or two' - Aghh, back to The Failure's MO. except it was the whole dog, and not a bone or two.
Q4) when you see 'The Big Liar', plse don't pass on my best regards.
Will I get a rerply oooooh. no, dont think so,
Q2) 'We have to hope we retain 9%' Yes crude, that will happen IF exploration drilling is a failure.
Pont. I liike ur optimism but i cant have the same. GL.
As long as each side agrees terms and nothing crops up on the due diligence etc then its a done deal imo. All major share holders and the board will vote for it, PI's will vote for and against and some wont bother. I'm guessing the deal might be further down the line than we think and could possibly be put to shareholders prior to the 14th Feb. The general meeting will be interesting for those attending, its a shame it wont be filmed now.
PNE79. 'Get feeling JP was next to MS etc' Spot on, especially answers re; SM ( still toeing The Failure's line even after 2 years of nowt being done.)
Not sure though some 'conspiracy theories' have been put to bed. Yes, they stated, 'as far as we are aware' no related parties ( past or present) involved with recommended 'deal'. Unsure if they gave that reply to q) re SM farmin?
Bottom line is that we will end up with 14% if there is success , cf 47.5% now. and this other party will control distribution of profits. I still believe there is a better, and a realistic alternative, but every SOU PI will have to reject this offer. Unfortunately, we already know there are posters here who will vote yes. I will guarantee that 2+ tears down the line, when everyone realises we were screwed, these posters will be saying ' hindsight is a wonderful thing' . It's too late then amigos. Lets see the deal and Q the BOD hard, about going it alone and raising funds,
Testpack, dont flatter yourself...you are deluded if you think they weren't just telling you what you wanted to hear. Your scenario would never happen because IMV, this deal suits the Moroccans & our major shareholders. Besides, who on earth would finance Sound Energy to the tune of $200 million or more..........this deal will go through & we just have to hope that we can retain that 9% & that exploration is able to run in tandem with production. This deal can work if we shareholders are thrown a bone or two........
PNE79
Interesting guess on your part that JP was sat beside Mohammed Seghiri to help him answering some questions, I would not bet against it.
Morocco wants first gas by the end of 2021 with payments to be made on a monthly basis, will the JV partner be obligated to get a shape on or will there be more slippage. What is abundantly clear if it wasn't before is sound needs more success with the drill bit for many to have any hope of seeing a return or their hard earned back. I like everyone else await the terms of the potential deal but it looks to me like we will at least get further opportunity to prove up more hydrocarbons.
Hero to zero PNE, spot on. JP went for broke when perhaps he could have gone for something less risky. I didn't get the sense he was involved at all with the FSC
Having only briefly read through the Q&A it looks to me we are ready to go on further exploration but are bound by the JV partner and their timelines. I fully expect more exploration if the deal goes through. Something is bubbling away with sidi but its anyone's guess if it will come to fruition. It would be slightly ironic if we had success at sidi after all the discontent with the original deal and the high hopes for Tendrara. Some of the conspiracy theories have been put to bed but we still await the finer detail of the eventual deal before we can form a judgement. It sounds to me JP dug himself a bloody big hole and went for broke with TE-9/10 when we might have had a couple of smaller and dare I say slightly safer plays but hindsight is a wonderful thing. Hero or zero and we all know how that turned out. Did anyone else get the feeling JP was sat next to Mohammed Seghiri during the fsc, possibly giving him a helping hand?
John Argent at 10.30, in reply to 'basin model' . quote;
'We have constrained our estimates of the exploration potential using a basin modelling study undertaken by a leading independent petroleum systems analysis consultancy (IGI Ltd). These estimates are stated as original gas in place (OGIP), unrisked without an associated geological Chance of Success and on a gross basis.'
Briefly he stated Low case 7 Tcf. 20Tcf mid case, unrisked gas in place, and upside 34 Tcf original GIP.
This is my point. The Failure is recommending a 'deal' that will see us lose c33% WI in the License Area ( and profit distribution), for c £126M, valuing the total License area at c£380M. There was an Ind. valuation of , just The Horst at c £250M for SOU's 47.5% holding. Later on in the Qn A. various members said there were considerable upside in The License Area, and 'substantial income' from gas sales. And we can get 14% ( fantastic deal)!. The recommending company will give SOU no legal rights in ensuring A/cs are prepared to adequately express all items that may affect bottom line profit.
HaHa crude. You said you would laugh at the reply by Mhmd S if he was asked about the money required to 'go it alone', as I have recommended' many, many times, and also to The Failure. Well, to quote yr other hero, Farage, You are not laughing now, since when asked about it, hi reply was it has been considers, and later on, implied it could be an option if 'deal' falls through. Ha ha. Regarding yr q at 11.40. I think stalking him is going to be lot harder than yr success with The Failure! sorry about his reply to you. haha.
This is wrong, see below Dempsey's answer to the concern raised:
"As a listed company Sound will still be required to announce every price sensitive operation and yes Sound would expect to have rights to receive updates. So an investor can expect the information flow to remain largely unchanged"
Re: Q & no A, the most disappointing to me was that there was no information about why the optional 9% was necessary. The most pertinent question didn't even get a comprehensible answer let alone shed any light ...
"RichDennis: I appreciate you cannot speak for the incoming party - BUT - in what scenario would they not exercise the option for the additional 9%? The RNS suggests the 9% would be available on the same terms as the original tranche so with any success with the drill bit surely it would be a certainty to exercise?"
"Sound Energy (Administrator): As you rightly point out, unfortunately we cannot comment on third parties."
Uh, what??? On the other hand, I'm satisfied that the purchaser is likely to an established company and not some total fly-by-night. With the share price down another 10% I'm likely to top up yet again and take my average down to 28p (not bad considering I started buying at 96p). I expect to have to wait years and still lose a packet but, notwithstanding the doom and gloom on here, I reckon there's a half decent chance of getting something back.
Prudent yr point 5 re SM. '5. They are continuing exploring farm-in on Sidi and sounded confident about annoucing something soon'. You do know that The Failure said 2 yrs ago that there were at least 10 interested parties in SM farmin, What's changed.? It's a ' The Failure' line.
refers to SM, sorry
1) In answer to Q at 10.31 re shares to Petro. Gary said that it valued the deal at c$7m since in Jan 2016 sp was 17p. If he had any idea, actually typing 17p sp in 2016 should have raise alarm bells for him. The sp on 23.9. 2016 was 97p when the terms of the agreement were 'revised' so that Petro. would get c20M shares with a min. value of 50pps, and anything above 50p when sold , the 'extra' would be split 50.50. So the min. value was £10M and significantly more since we are unsure when Petro. were selling shares. Should have done better Gary.