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Red , more pertinently, what was our Mcap in October 2018? ..... May tell a truer story ..... with dilution comes a fall in share price unless there is a very good reason ...... we have several very good reasons in the near term why current levels will soon be a thing of the past
Colonel Whilst I have no evidence to support this theory, I have yet to get a straight answer from the company as to whether or not we are drilling Blanca . I think it’ll be a bolt from the blue and I suspect it may be the news CGP were whinging about being withheld
Sorry Miagi, got to agree with Iceberg, we have zero evidence. So what would be evidence. Someone bidding for CGP, and consolidating that holding. Then maybe NCM or BHP, selling there holding to each other, or another party. Someone Doing a deal with NM for a share holding at an increased price.
Basically the book, becoming more consolidated. But even then we need an individual company to own over 30%.
Zero evidence is speculation on news events, like the PFS and standstill agreement for BHP, these are news, not evidence.
As you know, my most likely scenario is that SOLG gets taken out by Barrick, at more than £1 a share...how much more depends on whether or how big an auction takes place...
But here's two alternatives, both involving a JV for Alpala...
Barrick or BHP propose a JV with SOLG for Alpala/Cascabel...
Barrick wanted to take over Newmont, but in the end settled for a JV...
So...Barrick/BHP approach SOLG with a proposal to acquire 50% of ENSA. They buy CGP's stake for £150m and commit to funding $1 billion of the development costs of Alpala in return for the 35% that takes them to 50%, plus they underwrite the additional $1.7 billion of debt that makes up the $2.7 billion total, but because of the value of their covenant, the debt is executed at a far cheaper price than SOLG would achieve and SOLG doesn't have to issue any more equity to fund Alpala.
Of course one cannot assume it would be straightforward for Barrick or BHP to acquire CGP, but a price twice their current SP (they closed last night at a one year high...), together with an implied threat by the major that "we'll bury you" if CGP decline to sell, should do the trick.
One immediate result would be that SOLG shares would soar, allowing them the choice of issuing sufficient equity to fund their exploration program for the other 13 prospects for the foreseeable future...
And...NM gets to see Alpala to production...
If Barrick gets CGP they also get c7% of SOLG; if BHP gets it they then have 20% of SOLG, but SOLG ends up with two or even three major mining companies as shareholders, each with the potential to partner them on any of the other 13 projects...
Just a thought and open to any debate around this...
But I can't see any other way for Nick to fulfil his dream and the fact that he's employed Citi for bid defence means he takes the threat of predatory takeover seriously...
Once BHP are out of lock in period, they won't hang about. If they decide to go hostile and make a bid then they are hardly going to wait a few months more so NM and team can discover another 3 Alpala's. I'm betting that we have at least 1 or 2 results in before October 15th but suspect there will be another couple of drills ongoing which wont come through until Nov/Dec or early Jan.
Even if BHP get stuck in with a Bid it will take a few months to play out and not conclude for 6 months. So there's room for revised offers to factor in further discoveries post BHP's prelim offer assuming there is one of course. No major wants SOLG to find another 3 Alpala's. The majors want that opportunity and the upside/risk protection that it provides to Alpala itself.
Hi Miagi, I agree with your 10.37 post, but that's my point, lots of money sloshing around. NM can obtain funding. Now will someone give NM full or near to full value, that remains to be seen. But even then a bid at full value, may not be successful, if other holders won't sell. They might feel, wait a minute, what about all the other tenements that look promising. This is by no means game over. All the best.
That's all been happening for years though! As for newcrest wanting to buy more, that's fine. I'll believe it when they buy more...I've seen nothing that they have the financial clout to get involved along with their existing commitments... I am not saying that a takeover won't happen, just that it's not preordained to come in Oct.
Ahem: 1) NCM's recent public statement that they are interested in buying more. NCM having accumulated 14% in past placings. 2) BHP's failed bid in 2016 and accumulation of shares in several placings since.
There is no, zero evidence that anybody wants to buy solg except for the citi appointment. There is zero evidence that anybody wants cgp. There are lots of reasons why somebody might, but oct is just the start of discussions imo not a physical bid start.
Barrick, Rio or the Chinese are just sitting and waiting for this to unfold. They may even have begun engaging with NM/Citi for all we know. It's always better to try and approach the company first but inevitably in the cat and mouse game of M&A, sometimes 'surprise' is the best mode of attack.
As I said... BHP have a good relationship with NM regardless of what lies CGP and NCM like to put out there. BHP have an opportunity to do a deal of some sort with NM which prevents a bid by Barrick or others.
If they pass up on that opportunity, then they'll be thrown to the wolves in a bidding war which may end up one that BHP do not win.
I still believe BHP's strongest play here is to try and get something agreed with NM before october 15th or before Barrick make a bid or another. PFS is needed before any auction can be kicked off, that's for sure.
What CGP want and what happens are two different things...remember it's CGP selling its entire company not ensa, so 600m(debt and cost) is a lot of dough for a 15% stake in something you have no control over and 7% of a company which will likely dilute to maybe 5%. You are saddled with lots of rubbish little JV s and as quady says nobody has bid so far!
Too true Quady. People were saying that the PEA was going to be the catalyst. There are differences this time on multiple fronts: 1) Gold price roaring. Copper doing ok - looks to have bottomed? 2) BHP standstill genuinely "imminently" coming to an end. 3) PFS is that extra level of confidence (remember that MRE3 converted most of the resouce into indicated or better). 4) Gold metallurgy has since been sorted. 5) Rumblings of court proceedings and unrest in 2019 - the Majors would have known about it long before we did. 6) Absolutely tonnes of money sloshing around the markets looking for a home. Money loves gold at the moment. Even Buffet (who would have predicted that) has u-turned.
Again BBG, anyone is allowed to bid for CGP, with the exception of BHP, why are they not bidding. Plenty of people said, we would be sold at PEA, that they wouldn't want this to go any further and add value. Anyway, we don't have long to wait. Then the argument, will be, no one was going to buy this before DFS. The point I am making, is nothing had changed, if anything, the book is now more diverse, which makes a bid harder. When I see consolidation of shares, I will start to believe a bid is more likely, than production. Why are we the only people, bidding for CGP?
Further to this Quady, CGP won’t want this going any closer to DFS for various reasons, so they will be offering their holding to any bidder such as Rio or NCM in order to see a return greater than $3,5m :)
They want the auction to start immediately, and my opinion, it has