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"....SOLG is assessing optimisations that will be included in a PFS Addendum due in
H2 CY22, in preparation for the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) planned for
completion in H2 CY23. This is likely to include upside which we believe could
be unlocked through a satellite open pit at TAM. Our conceptual scenario
estimates TAM could bring forward first output from the Alpala plant by two
years, enhancing the NPV by US$240m whilst also providing flexibility and
derisking the Alpala cave operation. The Alpala Mineral Reserve is another
avenue of upside, currently representing only 21% of Measured and Indicated
Resource tonnes and ~38% of contained metal. Inclusion of additional material
could see the throughput jump to over 30Mtpa by adding another module,
though follow-on caves are beyond the scope of key technical work at this stage.
Enhanced fiscal terms could be agreed in an updated IPA (early 2024), with
Solaris Resources recently announcing a 5% reduction in income tax to 20%
amongst other incentives, setting precedent and providing further confidence in
Ecuador for FDI..."
cont'd
".....The PFS initial mine plan targets the Alpala high grade core within one cave,
with copper grades expected to average over 0.75% (~1.35% CuEq) within the
first 10 years of production. As a result of strong by-product contribution and
highly productive bulk mining methods, Alpala enjoys low cash costs of
US$(0.40)/lb Cu and AISC of US$0.06/lb Cu on a post by-product basis. This
places the project well within the first decile of the global copper cost curve
(according to WoodMac 2032 estimates). Within this is an exceptional negative
AISC average of US$(1.38)/lb in first five years from achieving nameplate
capacity (190ktpa Cu, 680kozpa Au and 1.3Mozpa Ag average annual production
in that period). These quantities would place Alpala within the top 15 and 30
projects globally for gold and copper production respectively (vs. 2021 global
production figures), and in the top ranks of undeveloped junior held projects...."
cont'd
"....The revisions to our estimates follow release of PFS results on 20th April and the
technical report filing on 1
st June. Key changes include a reduction in throughput
to 25Mtpa vs. 30Mtpa in our previous, pre-PFS model, as the study “right-sized”
the project to a robust base case compared to the 50Mtpa PEA. Reserves of
558Mt @ 0.58% Cu & 0.52 g/t Au (vs. our previous 959Mt assumption) offer a
25-year mine life (vs. 33-years). We also tweak assumed royalties in-line with
the PFS, increasing the Franco-Nevada royalty rate to 1.27% (from 1.00%) due to
production provisions in the agreement, and reducing the government royalty
rate to a flat 3% vs. 5-8% previously. Assuming prices of US$8,500/t Cu and
US$1,850/oz Au, this generates life-of-mine EBITDA of US$27bn and FCF of
US$14bn, giving a 4.2-year payback and an NPV8% of US$3.4bn at Jun’23E (or
US$3.6bn immediately pre-capex), a ~30% like-for-like cut vs. previous H&Pe. ..."
cont'd
".....We have updated our valuation for SolGold (“SOLG”) following the filing of the
Cascabel PFS technical report. The changes result in a US$3.6bn NPV8% and
22% IRR (immediately pre-capex) at US$8,500/t Cu and US$1,850/oz Au,
driving a modest cut in our target to 85p/sh (Jun’23E) from 101p. Nonetheless,
we view this as a solid base case, with tangible potential upside through:
inclusion of the open-pit Tandayama-America (“TAM”) deposit 3km away;
additional caves and throughput capacity to capture the remaining 79% of M&I
tonnes outside the 26-year PFS mine plan; capex efficiencies; and positive tax
regime changes within an Investment Protection Agreement (IPA) for extraction. ..."
cont'd
LM why would BHP, or anyone else for that matter, pay 41p for a fund raise wen our current sp is 27p? What they did in the past is irrelevant.
Anyone have full access to the new research note on SolGold ?
Snip it below
SolGold: Model update following PFS filing; de-risking continues with optimisations expected by year end
We have updated our valuation for SolGold (“SOLG”) following the filing of the Cascabel PFS technical report. The changes result in a US$3.6bn NPV8% and 22% IRR (immediately pre-capex) at US$8,500/t Cu and US$1,850/oz Au, driving a modest cut in our target to 85p/sh (Jun’23E) from 101p. Nonetheless, we view this as a solid base case, with tangible potential upside through: inclusion of the open-pit Tandayama-America (“TAM”) deposit 3km away; additional caves and throughput capacity to capture th.........
Q, you appear to have accepted the argument that at least 300m will have to be raised via equity funding. However, you seem reluctant to accept that this will cause significant dilution. How do you reach that conclusion?
Seanhunter : "Going into production ourselves? Really? I'd rather they spent the money on magic beans."
Correct
I think somebody already has, that or mushrooms.
Definition of Walter Mitty
: a commonplace unadventurous person who seeks escape from reality through daydreaming.
ONWARDS & UPWARDS Bubbles ;))
Even bubble gets it...
:)
Big trades there novice nice. :):)
Try your best not to respond to me little novice. I know it's hard for you because the long term genuine holders mainly ignore your input. #needy
Don't flatter yourself tinyray, I wasn't replying to you Lolzzz, remember ;))
So predictable... have a good day hopefully you'll join us soon (so you say)
I thought as much Sean, no explanation why you have to be abusive other than being childish and emotional. #weak
That's rich coming from you Ray, a non invested troll who only appears when the price falls. Back to POLY now laddie, Putin needs your pennies to prop up his regime.
No need to respond to me novice.. let me go from your head...
Because its an anonymous BB fella with no consequences, what gets posted here has no effect on the price...
#harmless fools
ONWARDS & UPWARDS
A deal will be done on Alpala soon as Lasso, US and IMF all desperate for Cascabel to be moving forwards with more pace than SOLG's self propelled Zimmer frame.
Mather has said that he believes there are potentially another 12 similar size Alpala deposits in the folio. Even if they hit just 3 sized Alpala's elsewhere that's huge and transformational. 4 x tier 1's potential. So if he's so confident of the other tier 1's then surely common sense says that you sell 1 tier one asset to derrick and use the cash to find the other 3... or 8!
The next cab off the rank comment I believe refers to 'packaged' goods. SOLG are looking imho to rinse and repeat what they have already achieved on Alpala. But for the market to give the strategy any value, they need to prove the model works and to do that they must 'sell' or JV Alpala. That's the plan imho and it will happen this year. The only question is whether a buyer (bhp et al) allow SOLG to take that route. Any Major miner with some intelligence will just buy SOLG out right and bag the opportunity of another 3 or 8 tier 1 projects for themselves at zero price as undrilled resources worth zero these days. Just relax, a deal is bubbling away in the background and has ben ongoing for months now. It's obvious by how quiet CGP and Irwin are. They seem quite content right now when you'd normally expect them to be ranting and raving.
Why do you have to be abusive to quady sean? Can't you handle a debate without the abuse?
What exactly have you been doing for 40 years Quady? I always assumed there was simply a village somewhere missing an idiot.
There are some wild and ridiculous posts about how to go forward, why don’t you just wait to see what Solgold will do, leave it to the professionals how they are going forward
We haven’t a clue who they have been talking too or even setting up deals with, wait for the RNS rather than argue over what we don’t know
Atb
Obviously on the upside in 15 or 20 years time you will own shares in a hugely valuable new mining company.
But what will the Net Present Value of those shares be? Lost in the billions and billions of new shares printed in the meantime? The pie got bigger but your slice got smaller and smaller. Probably what you had back in 2017, about 40p in today's money. All this attention, stress and worry just to go on a 20 year journey back to where you were 5 years ago?
Going into production ourselves? Really? I'd rather they spent the money on magic beans.
I'm very confident there will be no bid in 2022 hence this is a traders share.
Excellent seanhunter, you have shown everyone you haven't got a clue. That's not how things like this work. I won't bother arguing, as unlike you have been doing this for over 40 years, you believe what you want.
Quady to raise 300 million we'd have print about 2 billion new shares and sell them at a heavy discount, like 15p. That would immediately drag our sp down... knowing Solg, probably to 10p, and it would fall again every time we print new shares. To go into producton we are talking Weimar Republic levels of inflation if you get my drift. If we go into production this generation of investors, on this board today, will be wiped out. There's really no way round that, and no funding option you can come up with will protect us on the outside of the corporate bubble - no salaries or options for us, the poor bloody infantry.