SolGold Share Chat (SOLG)

Good afternoon Colonel, I don't disagree with anything you have said, but please ask yourself a question. Look what is happening around the world. Banks are starting to tighten their lending criteria. I am sure that this will be to the annoyance of many western governments, but they are doing this because, we have to much credit out there, and with Corona virus, and job losses, see bad debt on the books. I believe that this gives banks the breathing space, to repay quantitative easing loans, and get some of their securities restored. I don't believe rates will turn negative, but if it does, I feel that it will be in the euro zone. Their spending must come to an end. World is in a strange place at the moment, but the bitcoin argument over fiat money, I don't think is valid. Look at the number of virtual currencies cropping up. More likely these will collapse. Also I think the arguments over challenger banks have been overdone. I for one, would not lodge my money, with a virtual bank. Old terms like trust and security come to mind. All the best. PS: I do understand the bitcoin argument, and fiat money, I have a friend, who is invested, and been pointing me at the relevant reading material. Just not for me. A collapse of fiat money, would be a collapse of civilisation. That in my mind will be avoided.

What about the fact that it had little trouble bursting through 1707 on the retracement from 1450...?

And there's different views anyhow...its always easy to do an expose facto but...

"The most significant levels are usually the 61.8% level and the 38.2% level. The 23.6% level and the 78.6% (or 76.4%) levels are not as significant...."

My simple maths tells me that even at $1763 we were only c68% retracement of the fall from the August 2011 all time high...surely we can make $1873 before a correction...? (78.6%)

And for every gold miner, every extra dollar is an extra dollar of pure profit...

AIMHO as usual...

Quady,
If rates turn negative and dollar weakens heading into US elections, then combined these factors should see Gold through $2000 levels. Thereafter.. just like what happened with Bitcoin... things can run away with themselves especially if the paper markets gets into a twizz with the physical. Then you have forced buyers simply desperate to buy gold at any price just to meet the calls. So it becomes a scenario (opposite to recent negative oil prices) whereby the supply of the physical causes market dynamics to 'bend' in a way they have never 'bent' before! Bent being the operative word.

Markets are delicate things and easily broken when risk and confidence becomes something that is 'virtual' rather then solid physical... genuine.

2 TRILLION of CLOs (not CDOs) in existence...Banks were warned not to hold such 'assets' after the debacle of 2008...but apparently plenty are holding them through the Cayman Islands and Wells Fargo that got into such serious trouble 12 years ago, is waist deep...

Together with 'fiat money' and funds massively invested in Gold right now, its only a matter of time...

I understand Fibonacci but a resistance level has to be broken some time...

How much longer can the prospective bidders wait...BHP and Newcrest don't even need to do much due diligence...

All we need is "the Company has received an approach that may lead to a bid..."

Or even

The Company knows of no reason for the recent share price movements...

And we're off to the races...

If you're out, waiting to get back in you're playing a dangerous game...so are the 'runners and riders' that are jockeying for position as world gold resources deplete...

AIMHO as usual...

Hi Quady. That is an excellent question, i really dont know, much depends how this all plays out. since 2008 we have ended up in a position were many government bonds had negative yields. its a broken system if investors are effectively paying governments to borrow. The problem is institutional investors cant have all their portfolios in equities and cant just hold all cash so they have no choice but to look to the bond market. its a crazy world at the moment

Thank you sipptrader, that article makes my point, as for all intensive purposes, we are at the Fibonacci resistance level at 76.4%. Maybe some of the TA people who understand this better than me, could explain its significance. I just know, that once this level is reached the downward pressure on gold is immense. The article accepts that for all the difference, we have reached this level, and says we could get to 5,000 dollars an ounce, it just ignores the resistance level that it is already at.

In the April webinar they describe this as the most financeable project of its kind and says there’s been increased interest from gold financiers due to the current state of the economy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DKKB1dqP9TU

He also says they are looking at the true value as apposed to the current share price / market cap. The current state of the economy can only have a positive effect.

I think this is the lowest the share price will ever reach going forward. The current price is the same price BHP got in at and the recent director buys confirm that this is the bottom so it’s only up from hear. :)

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/gold-prices-could-hit--5000-and-beyond-amid-major-macroeconomic--200616

Agreed , that's why I believe a tightening of the lending criteria is going forward, to loosen the criteria at the moment, would in my mind be close to crazy. I think the interesting question, will be, at what rate will government bonds be issued. That's a much tougher question for the next 5 years.

good morning. The reason so many economists have so many different views is these things are very hard to predict. I think very soon Fiat currency will come to an end. How it will happen i have no idea but i am extremely confident that gold will benefit. Many think the dollar will crash, then you have the other camp who think the dollar and gold will both rise together against all other currencies. That is a really interesting theory by Brent Johnson (dollar milkshake). I am quite sure one of them will play out and it wont just continue as we are now. As was said below, we may now be at the point were the can cant really be kicked down the road. the world has too much debt, Hong Kong banks for instance are leveraged 850% which is more than Iceland in 2008. Imagine if that falls, HSBC make a large proportion of their money through Hong Kong, over 30% -the knock on effects will be massive

Morning Scott you are correct, if this madness continues, gold will rise. But that's my point. It's not continuing. Banks are starting to restrict lending, the Nationwide building society decision was massive, we will see the other banks follow shortly. Honestly, I didn't think this would happen for at least a couple more years, but I believe what we are seeing is the assertion of the banks, in order to pay back the quantitative easing money back faster, so that they can again reinstate their business models.

Governments all over the world have turned to the monetary, magic money tree, and now we have our government asking for shovel ready projects to spend the money on, you couldn’t make it up. When in a hole someone needs to tell Boris, Trumpet et al that you stop digging. The next thing on the agenda is negative interest rates, that’s when gold becomes the place to be. There has always been demand for gold even when it costs money to hold it, imagine what’s going to happen when it costs you to hold money. Conventional wisdom is that gold will initially track safe haven currencies, these are not conventional times, when, not if, the stampede starts, you can forget $2000 or even$3000 the folks at Robin Hood etc are going to make golds rise stratisferic. Anyway hope Solg can amplify this massive rise. The only way I can see Solg not achieving massive gains is if BHP or Newcrest or both take us out for A 45 p pittance. Keep the faith, no doubt it will be tested, it’s what they do.

Not only is it quiet in here SOLG is very quiet - their marketing machine must be furloughed - is no news good news - any Kind of update would be nice

Good Morning Quady,
Of course you could be right or I, but I think neither of us will be!! The positive and very negative scenario you paint could both happen. I can see an argument for each. Or it could be as gold being the mirror image to an extent of the dollar that a lack of faith in the US$ could propel Gold to $%k per troy oz.

But I do know that circa 15 years ago when gold was already up from £16 to £225 over 35years(1400% from 1971) that some peoples may well have been saying gold is cyclical and no way it will go from £225 to £1,400 (600%) in just 15years.

I know the Fed is not controlled by a gold standard and has and will increase the Money supply at will and eventually the currency inflation will get us there. Together with a bit of stagflation. Bit of a repeat of the 1970s but worldwide. $5,000 may be far too cheap by December 2026.

We are probably both wrong! LOL. And the first thing that is looted in war is the gold!!! Gold is money and all else is credit.
I'll keep a bit of ORO just in case LOL. And good luck to you and SOLG!

One last point on quantitative easing, say governments, say to banks lend more, we will have another quantitative easing program. I think the banks will refuse. The banks accepted the money, so that they didn't have to recall loans, and they could carry on lending. Today is not the same. Banks are capitalised, and paying this money back. They may well say, we will tighten our lending criteria and lower our risk profile. I see this happening now. Remember quantitative easing hurts banks.

Good morning Bankruptsharebuy, when have I said I am negative on gold. If I said gold will get to 10,000 dollars an ounce, would that make me more positive on gold than you, or would it make me wrong. I just don't believe the evidence is their to support 5,000 dollars an ounce, without a trashing of the world economies, without banks and governments taking action. Unfortually this will involve a contraction in lending, when we least need it, and some weaker companies will fail. Jobs will be an issue for any country. In the short term gold will continue to rise, it could even hit 2,000 dollars an ounce. But at some point in time, the contraction will take place, and we will trust the stock and bond markets again. I just think this time is sooner rather than later. On the subject of the gold copper ratio in Solgold. This has always been about the copper, look at differing amounts. It copper all the way, the gold and silver are a nice addition, as makes our net smelter worth more. All the best.

Good morning sipptrader, I may well be wrong, you may well be wrong, however time will tell. Gold has always been a defensive buy. All I am saying is their is a reason to go defensive at the moment. I believe that next year, that environment will not exist. To get close to 5,000 dollars an ounce, we would see a recession so large, no one would have any faith in stocks or the bond market, pensions would have collapsed. We must remember the reasons gold goes up. And to get them to those heights, then the rest of the world would be in pretty poor shape. A return to the equity market, would in my mind see an easing of the gold price. Good luck.

Two lions walking down the aisle of a supermarket

One lion turns to the other one and say' s "It seems quit in here today, don't you think"?

yes sums are done Monsieur Quady. It just seems a bit bizarre that you are neg on Gold but investing in Solgold and for the copper. Are you expecting a miraculous post 2019-ncov recovery? maybe from 2021 fist quarter?

Quady I have reread your posts and I don't think I am lacking in intelligence but there you have it! Maybe I have got it all wrong! not to worry, it is only money! I thought Gold as money and not a commodity but I'm sure you know best! You seem pretty positive and defensive on the banks! Good Luck with that! I mean what utter twaddle, you talk about Gold cyclical! I mean a steadyish rise from £17 to £200 to £1,400 an oz..over a period of 50 years and you say it's ending next year! what on earth supports your view on that? Maybe the economy is a#shafted and the banks take over the world and pay only dividends to Quady! LOL! I think I'll stick with what has been money for 5000? years and all else is credit?? lol. I've been with Solomon Gold and now Solgold for quite some time but you know it was never about the copper and I do not think we will get much rise in SP. Full Stop. The rise from 3p to 46p was it! I'm still here but because you got to be somewhere and with the potential of TIER 1 Gold asset who knows....

Good evening Showmethemoneyyy, I understand your argument, however, I am not talking about a large rise. Companies that are badly run or over extended, will go out of business, don't make the mistake that interest rates won't go up, because companies will go out of business. That's part of the evolution in finance. We need to curtail borrowing, and the money that banks have lent, needs to be paid back. We have a bigger problem on short term credit, you mentioned car loans in America. Yet again a tightening of the lending criteria. We are rapidly coming to the point, where the ball can no longer be kicked down the road. Short term credit is a tougher subject, as interest rates are always higher here. Thank you for your thoughts.

Good evening. It was me you were having the debate with. Nationwide is the first in this country, in America many of the banks stopped loans for cars etc a month or so ago. Basically higher risk loans getting pulled in.

For the record, I agree with what you said in normal times interest rates would rise. But this is not normal times. Never has corporate or sovereign debt been this high. Governments and national banks would love to have higher interest rates but they can’t do it. It will be an absolute last resort. Raising interest rates will mean those sovereign debts countries have run up cost more to just pay the interest. If they put rates up, which they will want to do, they will have to print more money just to pay the interest. Which will devalue currency, cause inflation so they will want to put rates up again, it’s a cycle that won’t end well.

I get your logic, but as the fed said they won’t raise interest rates until 2022. As a large proportion of the world debt is in dollars they will be the first to move rates and others may follow. But they cant without totally collapsing the world economy

I am in Solgold for the copper, the gold is a bonus, along with the silver. I take it you have done your sums bankruptsharebuy.

Gold is money and all else is credit. JPM said that or similar. and you think the gold run will come to an end next year Monsieur Quady. Well Good luck with that haha. What you hanging about in SOLG for>? Maybe Mothercare would float your boat?

good evening sipptrader, agreed property will suffer, as ability to pay, and restrictive lending, with higher interest rates. Interest rates don't need to rise that much. 1-2 % may tip the balance. On gold, you are using historical data. The world is changing, and Gold is cyclical. It's not a one way bet, or none of us, would bother with the stock market. The gold run will come to an end in the first quarter of next year. I realise I am going against the experts, but if we followed the experts in Finance, we would all be poor. It's when we make a call against the group think, and we make the right call, that we profit. Good luck.