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Yeah I think we'll still do well once data's revealed to be efficacious, but my problem after that would be how far can I realistically expect this to go without a takeover quashing any hopes of the higher end numbers of the range are realised
I think the upside of the range is squashed down a bit since I believe there will be some societal and government pressure building to do the right thing especially for poorer countries not take too much profit per dose. Could be wrong. However even with this pricing pressure I'm still thinking £15 to £20 per share is not unreasonable an expectation for a best in class secondary care focused treatment like SNG001.
I hope so Rdcm. After being in this for so long I as well as everyone else on here have become strangely protective over the product. The pie in the sky numbers like even half of the £129 would be deserved but I'm just worried that a pharmaco will intervene long before we see those numbers.
Just wondering if anyone else is wondering the same thing
The world needs answers and combining the science here and results pending Id expect this to cruise up to £8-10 for starters.
From there it will be all about scale, process/ procurement and business capacity to potential bolster this further.
I like how we're talking about SPs above £100 but surely it'll be a case of the company being taken over long before it reaches that point? I'd love to hold until figures like that are reached but why does something tell me that would be far too good to be true.
BC
Whilst selling on results seems logical enough, it seems madness to me because surely the party is only just getting started?!
Yes, I must admit, I’m not sure where I sit with this?
If P3 is a success there might be some profit taking but most switched on PIs will be sitting on hands. The landscape will change very quickly, orders will flood in. The usual supply and demand dynamics are not in play here, when your product is a matter of life and death the global demand will be very very high.
Whilst selling on results seems logical enough, it seems madness to me because surely the party is only just getting started?!
It’s not a blockbuster yet, the last chapter has yet to be written and is usually left open in sporting autobiographies until that final event. I’m hopeful that Martin Johnson and RM are on the same page, maybe he can play him in the film..or Our Johnny.
I totally agree Ghia. RM has certainly indicated that will be the path that is followed and the hires they have made in 2021 certainly point in that direction. The partners for manufacturing are all in place, are all suitably big enough to upscale manufacturing massively. All they need is a final positive data readout and then the go ahead from US government.
I was reading today that Florida alone spent $200m+ on monoclonals in 2021 and have budgeted $600m for 2022. Over time new variants will impact the usefulness of MAb's so where will that money be spent.... Governments will be seriously reviewing strategy over the coming months.
You could not have written a script where a new variant of concern with so many spike mutations hits the world at almost the exact point where Synairgen unblinds it’s data on the only drug that has shown efficacy in outpatient and hospitalised patients suffering severe breathlessness and that is a strain agnostic.
Pfizer’s pill added far more than 9 billion…
Matml74 - another thing that I believe the market has overlooked is the fact that SNG probably don’t need a major pharma partner to get this across the line.
The current state of play is very different to pre-pandemic times.
Pre pandemic your time to approval and cash burn to approval was high and once approved you’d have to actively market the drug, the links and networks that major pharma have would be essential.
The state of play now is that if you have a drug that is promising and has good data governments will place massive orders and forward fund manufacturing scale up.
Major pharma offer nothing to SNG currently which is why we have seen some interesting hirings around the manufacturing and supply chain governance.
I fully expect SNG to ship product for 12months before a major pharma is allowed in on the action at that pharma will be brought in to bankroll the future development of SNG as a broad spectrum and as a combination therapy.
On my 'fun money' account I am 93.6% SNG, 6.4% 4D. If 4D bag before the end of the year its all going into SNG.
In terms of my targets for the price, I hope for £10, could it go higher than that, definitely, I can't see a 9bn rise in market cap like merk and pfizer did in one day though. But SNG is more than just COVID-19, these crazy price targets people are throwing around I actually am starting to think may not be as crazy as I first thought... Let me dream...
I’m only 97.86% Johnny. I’m breaking my rules though but I have done my research with the help of this board.
99.85% in sng
For starters they were never going to stockpile any drugs in the first half of 2021 when commercial size batch production testing, BFS testing, stability studies etc were all ongoing, all requirements for any regulatory process. It seems some posters don’t understand what the company has been doing in 2021.
Of course the market is forward looking with covid stocks. The revenues that Pfizer/Moderna etc are generating are massive and put the companies in a dominant global position. IMO the market has not been forward looking enough with respect to SNG MCAP.
I am also 35% synairgen, none of my other stocks exceed 5% except National Grid (safe and slightly counter-cyclical with main market, basically an income stock) and L&G climate change fund (also, to my mind, safe) which are both 15%. I have been having to be patient for a long time, but I note that (a) a large part of the world has low vaccination rates and (b) the reported very high Rt value of omicron is going to "find out" the unvaxxed very quickly compared to delta/alpha/parent strain, some of whom will become rather ill. It is over a year since we raised £80m for the stage 3 pivotals, which ended up as a split thing, and I feel we MUST be very near the end. Although the wait has been annoying, the timing to help save lives is now very propitious - those various pills still need trials, we are ahead of them, they are where we were back on 20th July 2020. I do think if the stage 3 results for our inhaler are akin to stage 2 results, which were amazing with an 80% death avoidance rate, the NHS will go all out to get this drug deployed quickly and the government may be rather proud of a UK firm delivering this. Bunter will probably boast of it on one of the 5pm broadcasts when the time comes; I remember the boasts in those broadcasts in 2020 about how Southampton was leading the vaccine trials in the past.
govck, I actually agree with most of what you are saying. I am hoping that typical timescales are thrown out of the window and, if successful, SNG’s drug is chivvied along a bit faster than usual. The market also seems to be even more forward looking than usual with Covid stocks.
Alpha - fair question, for context I’m about 40% SNG, the largest position in my portfolio.
I am absolutely about understanding downside risk and I believe this is an effective investment approach, the upside is clear but a lot of chatter on here is unsubstantiated assumptions not disclosed as such and I don’t believe helpful in understanding potential future value as it is setting unachievable expectations. I am invested as I hope Synairgen will be the best investment I have ever made but alot of the stuff on here is just a wild guess/theory. The game will change at P3 but I don’t think we will return an EBITDA of 800M next year that implies prices, costs and delivery of a drug that has not yet received any orders. Sale of the company or licensing of the drug will require a complex and long winded negotiations. My hopes are of a roaring success just with a bit of a longer time scale.
govck - out of interest (if you dont mind me asking) whats your portfolio position as a % invested in SNG? It may be that you're a glass half empty kind of person trying to think of any risks, but you're definitely quite cool on SNG's potential prospects.
It's been said by others, but SNG would be absolutely mad to have burnt through all their cash pile to stockpile treatments ahead of the trial results. Any kind of delays or unforeseen hurdles and RM has to go back to the market to ask for more cash to keep the lights on in that scenario.
RM has mentioned previously that to ramp up to large numbers of treatments per month they are going to need Gov assistance. If the trial results are anything like we hope then I think governments will clamouring to provide that help if it means they can get their supply of SNG treatments sooner.
Likewise however I would not assume no news = progress :)
If production ramp up turns out to be our only concern.
We’ll be in a great position
With a royalty scheme in force no need for all the product to be made in house or by SNG itself
My understanding was that all the ducks have been lined up (Aerogen, Thermo Fisher etc) and even supply chain issue with glass they have found a work around for, that production can be ramped up very quickly. Put it this way, if hypothetically SNG was so powerful it could save millions of lives, they’ll make sure it’s manufactured somehow.
Regardless and even if there are supply chain/production issues, the share price will go well north of £2.02 on a successful P3 outcome.
If trials are good, I can possibly see a collaboration between 2 or 3 big pharma companies helping sng along with a big jv or monies/technical assistance to get the drug out asap based on need and an urgent medical coming together for the benefit of mankind.