Member Info for govck

Tommy if you are referring to me, not true, if you are referring to other random posters then yes

I agree with B2H I think they are reviewing how to proceed and not committing to modify the trial design as insinuated by some

They cannot issue an indefinite “pause” without formally cancelling the contract, I take the point about the potential modification to the trial design but this is not as definitive as you are making out. The request to pause that stops further spending I believe is more telling than the reasons they have given for it. A contracting officer can only act in certain ways before finding is formally de obligated. As a minimum I would say they are reviewing wether to carry on.

This is my two cents based on dealings with the US government. To pause activities to prepare clinical supplies I read as a contract action intended to stop any further spending on the contractor (synairgen) side while a decision is taken on wether to cancel the funding or change/reduce the scope. If they intended right now to continue with the trial they would not want to stop the production of more doses and would not have asked them. This is in effect a stop work notice to limit additional spending on samples they do not want while the formal cancellation is worked through. Time could prove this wrong but this in my experience with US government contracts is what is likely.

Good spot skip

Well that explains the drop, Polar cashing out, no cahones.

It doesn’t look to me like Javid is following Synairgen only the other way round.

A deal to supply treatments with an upfront payment to enable manufacturing is the most likely outcome in my view for additional funding. My take on what I’ve read from RM and the company is that they want to go it alone rather than be bought out. The fact they have not been overly active in RNS’ing indicates they are not intending a cap raise. Trying to drive the share price higher in order to minimise dilution doesn’t seem to be on the agenda. Just my thoughts, no one really knows.

Really great idea on preparing for an EUA, I doubt the company has thought of this, maybe you could get in contact with RM over twitter or something and suggest they get on with it? They may also not have been aware of when the data is to be made available so think it’s worth reminding them it’s been unblinded.

They don’t have the data yet. The only people arriving at that conclusion are uninformed.

Some interesting data points came out of the Gauteng severity readouts listing COPD as the hospitalisation reason for atleast one patient. Not impossible that they could try to draw a link between asthma and COPD as risk factors for Covid.

This is bull if you check the actual prices

Just looked and it was saying 32% institutional holding?

Alpha - fair question, for context I’m about 40% SNG, the largest position in my portfolio.

I am absolutely about understanding downside risk and I believe this is an effective investment approach, the upside is clear but a lot of chatter on here is unsubstantiated assumptions not disclosed as such and I don’t believe helpful in understanding potential future value as it is setting unachievable expectations. I am invested as I hope Synairgen will be the best investment I have ever made but alot of the stuff on here is just a wild guess/theory. The game will change at P3 but I don’t think we will return an EBITDA of 800M next year that implies prices, costs and delivery of a drug that has not yet received any orders. Sale of the company or licensing of the drug will require a complex and long winded negotiations. My hopes are of a roaring success just with a bit of a longer time scale.

Likewise however I would not assume no news = progress :)

I don’t agree, the investment in the first half of the year is absolutely material as it was listed in the half year results as being a combination of administration and investment in pre commercial activities so is indicative of how much was actually spent on preparing for manufacturing up to 30th of June. We don’t know how much was spent subsequently but with limited cash I would not anticipate a stockpile of treatments. Hopefully an order will come, but timing is also key and I think the Numis estimate for next year is overly optimistic. If read out is not until Jan the earliest order will be months after.

This is amusing, but that’s about all it’s good for. Considering the company has as far as I can see not declared any investment in stock and only posted an admin expense if £2M up to June the EPS Numis is quoting for next year seems ludicrous. Wait for the company to tell us if they have anything before we start counting our money.

My thoughts were the same at the beginning of the year, I think the difference is the availability of other treatments and the capital they have received already. I think the market has raised its expectations of the efficacy required to achieve commercial success. But the market is not perfect so anything is possible.

I think read out means processed data i.e. analysed results. When he refers to data delivery I think he means the raw data.

I truly believe not receiving an order before read out of Phase III is the best outcome long term. Surely having a fully proven drug will give the company a very different negotiating position than agreeing with a big “if” dangling over it.