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Well let's hope they're not inconclusive and i hope you do get to average up Nolupus.
Is £1.50 off the back of positive results not a bit cheap though? Each to their own obviously and of course there are a lot of dependencies, including just how good the results are. But every time i try to look at the numbers based on successful trials, they're huge.
Forgetting COPD or licencees for a moment; If we take 'Meaningful doses' as 1 million - that being the amount that SNG are looking at being able to supply by year end (IF they get approvals). I actually think 1m is less than meaningful because it will only provide for 70k patients on a 14 day course and the yanks are hitting 60K plus new cases a day.
All SNG's interferon related peers charge a minimum of £500. That £500m revenue would surely put SNG somewhere between £3-4 by year end? The fact that they also have the COPD readout and potential to licence the product would only cement that projection, if not improve it?
Sorry if this post seems rampy but I actually think it's very conservative on the numbers. It's obviously not conservative on the trial result assumption haha
Miggy
Ps
If results are non conclusive well then at my current level of investment I will lose a major part of my capital invested , no doubt in my mind about that but it won't be too harmful to my portfolio as the potential loss is already compensated by my investments elsewhere
Miggy,
Most people don't understand That it's better to average up than average down
Here for example we have a 70p resistance level which is well marked ...
I would prefer to double up my stake after that resistance level is broken and confirmed so let's say I will double up at 75p
If my current average is 45p after my doubling up , my new average will be 60p ( well below the new support level of 70p ) so I am zen and my capital is relatively protected for the LT
You did say you'd sell up much of your position pre-news. I just think your posting reflects that ;)
Don’t really get that tbh Nolupus. If the results are conclusive you won’t be buying cheap. You have a gilt edged opportunity given all the research I’m sure you have done to get in at 35p or thereabouts. Why buy 80p+ with joe public once results are known to all or sundry. No risk no gain. Each to their own I suppose. I’ll be happy to let you have mine for 1.50p:)
Rich,
I have always given my position on here before buying or selling
To restate again ... Even if the SP goes to 29p I won't be buying anything until after results ... if the price goes up to 60p before results , i won't be selling anything .....
I am happy with my position here at this stage , but I will be buying more if the results are conclusive...
I would love a sub 30 top up! Hard to see it. I think today's movement showed that whoever is selling is doing so when it spikes up from here. Having said that I also think that if moderate to good trial results drop then it'll hardly matter a difference on THAT spike.
ChrisTOffer,
Sorry but I try and stick to what I know something about and not trying to speculate on what the market will or won't do ....
As you know the market is sometimes completely irrational ....
What I can talk about is my personal strategy but that won't help anyone as everyone has their own interests :-)
Yes I realised ;)
Didn't you realise Nolupus me and many others on here are itching for an entry point (29p for me personally) and we won't stop scaremongering until we get it!
Yes I think people on here are that gullible :p (well to varying degrees)
And I'm no not bothered about legitimate questions ;)
I tend to find people magically start finding these concerns a lot more often after they've sold out or "derisked".
I don't think you're any different.
Any of the actual encouraging interferon-beta trial data people having been posting...now nicely buried on this board.
Nolupus, if results are good will you commit to giving us a price projection?
Rich ,
Oh no , are you using that argument again People voicing their legitimate questions are deliberately scaremongering the sheep so they will sell their precious shares to them !
Do you really think that the people on here are so gullible ??
ChrisToffer - in a way, yeah :p
Personally i find it reassuring going over elements of the science. It's getting very close to results now. Only they will tell us what we want to know however i find this type of discussion helps me to hold my nerve because it really is only going 1 of 2 ways.
Not in the slightest. In fact I think it's deliberately designed to worry people unnecessrily.
The clinicaltrials.gov one doesn't mention a dosing level that i can see.
Rich, would you suggest we go back talking about Eva marrying Nolupus? :D
Rich ,
Don't you appreciate debate while awaiting those results ?
Or those debate worry you ? :-)
We can probably stop going round in circles now and just wait for the results....
same dosing 6 MIU SNG001 for both or I am missing something?
COPD https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03570359?term=sng001&cond=copd&draw=2&rank=1
COVID 19 https://www.hra.nhs.uk/planning-and-improving-research/application-summaries/research-summaries/inhaled-sng001-in-copd-patients/
there seems a bit of confusion here
" test positive for a virus will be randomised 1:1 to receive 6 MIU SNG001 or placebo once daily for 14 days"
This is from NHS health research authority
https://www.hra.nhs.uk/planning-and-improving-research/application-summaries/research-summaries/inhaled-sng001-in-copd-patients/