The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Who knows! When Buffett acknowledges he overpaid for a 2016 acquisition and is forced to write down $11B it says what we all know. This week (and last) there is the fear of rising interest rates making bonds less attractive. When bond-holders sell off, the price drops. When the price drops, the yield rises. This makes the risk-free rate rise as well. If the risk-free rate rises, the equity risk premium must also rise. That in turn forces the discount rates to be adjusted upwards. And that makes net present values of tech stocks in particular lower driving the share price down as people move away from anticipated future earnings potential to something more tangible and concrete. And that is where SLP comes in. With their fundamentals so strong (albeit lack of purchasing power admittedly), I see that the bond vigilantes only benefitting us. As to what the Pt or Rh price will do in 6 months time - God knows and he isn`t telling anybody soon :)
On SLP itself - lots of people on here know this stock (and industry) inside out and sure they will contribute much more than I can.
S
Sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Thanks.
"shorts"... I'm definitely not short here :)
Mark, while the "expert" reference I'm certain isn't aimed at me, I can tell you I'd be happy to eat my short if SLP is not north of £1.50 by June :)
Where do the expert posters on this site see SLP 6 mths from now and where do they think the Rhodium price is headed going forward? 30k next week? 40k next month?
Taking FCFps and % growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 3% for next 5 years tailing off to 1% at a discount rate of 20% I see fair value @ 215p
A 20% discount rate even for SA is a bit aggressive. What do others think?
S
Nope! But I can tell you my previous TP's over the past, shall we say "few" years!
Once-upon-a-time it was... ahem, 9p would you believe(!)... then 11p/24p/32p/ 47p/58p/73p/ and finally 96p! Shockingly, and much to my own disappointment it oneself, my last TP calculation of 96p was well over 12 months ago. Tut tut. Must try harder :)
Oh come on stoodio, please tell us what you’ve come up with!
Since start of the year the SLP 4E basket price is up about 45%.
Basket value breakdown now approx 1/1.2/5.2 for Pd/Pt/Rh
Rh bid price is up about 7% today (Baird).
Pgms on the charge. Couple of strong earnings could see major rerate and 100s a distant memory. Good luck all lths
Yup. Ridiculous, but not complaining. Is it that ridiculous? Actually not, it isn't :)
Re-worked my 6, 12 and 18 month TP here lastnight and was shocked at what I saw :) I'll be keeping it to myself however, as we all have our own ways of ascertaining valuations. But it's a very serious onwards and upwards from here folks.
The race to $30,000/oz is almost over for Rhodium! Prices are up this morning in Asia to $29,200/oz
Supply of the precious metals is the tightest it has been in more than 12 months as the existing deficit widens, fuelled by strong demand from China.
Demand within China has been largely tied to the more stringent nitrogen oxide (NOx) legislation. Global demand
The Chinese auto market, by far the largest in the world consumed more rhodium than any other in 2020 and was largely unaffected by the pandemic in 2020, avoiding lockdowns in the latter half of the year.
South Africa on the other hand supplies 80% of global Rhodium output each year and was severely disrupted by Covid-19 resulting in estimated losses of 15-18% of anticipated output.
Going forward the supply of more rhodium to market will be limited in S. Africa as rhodium is generally found in lower quantities in the rhodium-poor northern limb and new mines are moving away from these UG2 ore bodies.
As rhodium supply will continue to be restrained the market will react to sudden demand pressures and these are anticipated to jump in Q2 and Q3 of this year when European markets spring back to life.
Nothing at all. Just £2.00 chips here all day long :)
Nothing to see here..