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We are looking at the same google searches...ha
Don't see CoachUSA listed on this page though? Unless one of the independent subsidiaries?
The US school bus market is dominated by Firstgroup (our client at Croydon tramlink) and National Express (also our client)
Putting a positive on it, how about they holding off installing as they looking at the next generation of fleets to come pre installed with a factory fit. I have asked this off a few see staff at the various meetings and they never seem too interested. But, that's what CAT are working to a factory fit guardian system option. I would have thought this was a logical step for Coach / Bus / HGV OEM's.
Looked at some research I had done on the past on US school bus market and seems that the services are largely influenced by local independent school boards, so this would support Glandore point about independence despite head office mandates.
Red - can you point me in the direction of your reference on number of Coach UDSA school buses? I looked at their website but obviously I can't read!!!
Napzapper - was a bit surprised Megabus had adopted as seems a basic solution but haven't finished looking at it. Seem to recall the margins on Megabus like services are thin so could play into decision.
Glandore, I didn't end the conversation, I asked some questions to improve my understanding, happy to continue the debate, perhaps start with answers to the questions?.
True the contract was for 250 coaches. So I am trying to understand why it wouldn't have been extended to other parts of the business.
They mention 2,500 coaches on their website which I presume exclude School buses so still lots of other potential installations.
Your point on Insurance is very relevant.
The fact is the contract was for 250 interstate coaches and as I mentioned previously, the majority of the 5,000 vehicles are school buses. And we have known for some time that SEE had, as it turns out temporarily, stood down its US operations.
So, what's to discuss? You mentioned cost, I mentioned insurance savings (look at what's happening in Australia and elsewhere). Those cost savings over 3-5 years could to a large extent mitigate over time the upfront cost and monthly monitoring fees. So, all this talk of take up being restricted to certain niche customers is incorrect, plain and simple.
Have to say I thought Glandore's post was balanced and thoughtful. Maybe take another look S2020?
Seriously S2020 and Redindi?
I post what I think is a resonable effort to analyse why a major customer who are clearly pro Guardian from the original article have only included the technology in 5% of their fleet in four years and your only response is to ask silly questions with derisive comments ?
Why not continue the discussion and indicate which of my points are not reasonable ?
Why not add other possible reasons to add to our overall understanding of Fleet/Guardian ?
Your inability to engage in logical discussion without attacks on other posters is puerile and pathetic.
5. What are the material savings per vehicle after fitting Guardian ie lower insurance costs, less time off the road for both vehicle and driver?
Glandore, that's the known negatives, the unknown negatives and the negative negatives covered
You appear very well informed a few questions if I may, based on your last post I can only assume you know the answers?
1) what is the current cost of Guardian
2) what is the average cargo value or profit of a SM customer ?
3) why do "high profit organisations " have a smaller fleet ? Some examples based on your research would be great
4) who are the rivals who will beat us to the punch ?
Now I like the number 3 as much as anyone, but you really post like a man who wants to see 3 again , so in your honour
We will no doubt lead the way when the chips are put into these vehicles from the point of manufacture. We will no doubt have a monopoly on the market at that point and be leading the way through our connections with other organisations
As S2020 and Redindi pointed out SEE met the customer's (Coach USA) requirements. Their requirements seem to be for 250 of their fleet of 5,000. Inquisitive SEE shareholders will be interested in why not the other 4,750?
One reason may be the virtual close down of Guardian sales during SEE's Operational difficulties.
Another identified by W.H.L may have been the fact that COACH USA went into liquidation.
There is also the fact that many of COACH USA's companies are independently managed. So safety features may not be mandated from Head Office.
Perhaps many of the fleet are used in short-run situations for which I don't think Guardian really markets itself.
No sales force as such in North America.
Another thing limiting the fleet market imho is the cost.
One of the Coach USA companies, Megabus, has this comment in its safely section...
"We have also invested in a hi-tech driver safety alert system known as Nap Zapper and GreenRoad." (check out the cost of NAP Zapper!!!)
IMHO Guardian will be limited to high value cargoes and/or high profit organisations at the current price point. Which of itself is not a problem - there are a lot of them out there - but the fleets typically will not be as large. The important thing is that Guardian becomes the Fatigue/Distraction monitor of choice for that sector of the market.
As S2020's report shows they have done that in their home turf Australia. Now can they repeat this in other geographies before they are beaten to the punch?
So lots of possible reasons in a quick dump and I'm sure there are many others which will help us understand the fleet demographic/market/penetration.
WHL, I had an issue with the financial forecast for Fleet being only A$20m in the Cenkos forecast.
In fact I had a $1 wager with one of the SM staff at CMD that fleet would be closer to my forecast that the A$20m, my number was A$40m and I am still confident I will collect that dollar. Based on the interviews with Paul and Naomi seems safe they will be above A$30m reveneue for fleet at full year.
As for transparency on the installed number, FY19 was "above 16,000" which left it open to interpretation, the 20,551 number at Dec 31st is exact enough for me so no complaints and clearly they will update us every 6 months which is fine also.
#Team330 (10% increase on #Team300 as they delivered the Coach USA contract as Brother Red told us earlier)
2020.. Statistically should be wary of just looking at a single data point in isolation as could be an outlier. I did say maybe a proxy. Not definitely a proxy.
The more data points the better. Take Toll / Coach USA and any others that we get granular insight to and you get a blended take up rate.
As an aside I thought you had an issue with the fleet numbers that SEE reported as you thought they were understating them? If my memory is correct then how can the company be transparent? You are now ok with the accuracy of numbers they report?
Thanks for the report reading over coffee tomorrow.
A telling quote about another competitor - just 3 years experience in vehicles; from the fleet owner link:
Tel Aviv-based computer vision company tracking human movement called Eyesight Technologies sensed driver monitoring was a growing trend and about three years ago started to focus more intently on the automotive sector.
I think the Coach USA contract has to be taken into context. The contract was for 250 interstate coaches, those probably where daily mileage /hours was the most extreme, and therefore Coach USA felt the need for Guardian for especially fatigue events. As against the large majority of its vehicles which are school buses, which Coach USA did not, and maybe still doesn't, want Guardian. Yes, plenty of distractions but for a number of reasons, not an urgent requirement.
It would be great if SEE could get the school buses as well but for now, SEE has responded to client need and is fulfilling the contract for 250 interstate coaches.
WHL, so what about if say Toll group installed SM across their fleet should we then assume that 100% take up rate is a decent proxy ?
The company is extremely transparent on fleet installs, we had 16,000 at June 19, a very exact 20,551 at 31st Dec, it's the overall number that matters I dont think any sensible investor would expect them to break it down further.
People wonder why Paul mc is trying to attract experienced US based investors, I for one totally agree and understand that strategy
2020...don’t follow your first comment. I did say that Coach USA maybe a decent proxy for other clients?
Statistically should be wary of just looking at a single data point in isolation as could be an outlier. Still 5% rate is surprisingly low but without context difficult to understand if representative.
I’ll take a look at the report thanks. I missed it.
Lol, one company is not statistically relevant unless you only have a hand full of clients
Have a look at the report I posted the other evening if you want to read about progress
I looked over some of the past SEE updates and there seems to be more granular data in the article than actually released by SEE on numbers of installations...if so that’s shocking. If I was management I certainly wouldn’t want to publish that number as it would only prompt questions.
The installation rate for Coach USA...5% of fleet of 5,000 is poor....suitably understated. They did go into administration and were bought by a financial group April 2019, which would have undoubtedly slowed down decisions but still poor.
Agree with Glandore if more transparency from SEE then shareholders would be better informed.
Scratching my head here as Coach USA numbers don’t align with management position of fleet progress. It’s just one company but would have thought it is a fairly decent proxy for status of others.
McGlone talks about momentum in the interview. Yet coach USA who appear to be big backers have only fitted 250 to a fleet of 5000 since 2016. If we knew why their installation number is so low I think it would tell us a lot about the problems with fleet so far. It really should be much farther ahead.
"As for the pushback against cameras in America, as well as Australia, from drivers, he called it simply “a normal human reaction to change.”
With data such as an 80% drop in distracted and fatigue events, reported by a European refridgerated carrier, the argument against this tech in the truck becomes more difficult.
And the change in opinions has picked up too much momentum to stop.
“We certainly have an inflection point where I think we're going to see the coalition of regulations, industry bodies, and fleet owners come together to deliver on this commitment to reduce fatigue and distraction,” McGlone said.
EE Times speaks to Colin B. Effectively he says there has been a sea change from major OEMs around DMS since CES.
COLIN BARNDEN: Yes. Really, the future that I see is driver monitoring systems in absolutely every vehicle. Because really what we need is… That’s essentially where technology can really help humans, is around distraction and fatigue. And there’s starting to be some handover between the automated driving features and the human driver. Call that Level Two Plus, Level Three Minus, whatever. That essentially is where driver monitoring is absolutely critical. And that’s really what we’re seeing with Super Cruise and the recently launched system in the Cadillac Escalade, which is a seeing-machine system. And that’s using infrared vision to track the head position, the eye gaze of the driver, and looking for evidence of fatigue in terms of the blink duration of the driver. And really you can use both systems in highway assist Level Two Plus, or you can use it down into Level Two systems as well, to keep the driver engaged in the driving task and for the system to know at all times what the driver’s engagement level and awareness is.