H1 Financial reoport - DMS revenue divided by increase in vehicle with DMS during the 6 months.
Looking at the wider picture SEE is running at a loss rate of AUD30m per annum.
To convert that to a profit (at say 60% net profit margin )requires extra revenue of AUD50m. (Changing the net profit margin obviously gives different revenue numbers) I cannot see that happening in the next 18 months.
Thanks for that Aaroon - great to have some numbers.
revenue per unit - 20-25 dollars per unit - in H1 the number was approx AUS$16 so we will need to see where that falls. BMW will have iDrive in all NEW models and Model Refreshes per the salesman. So a while before it is ubiquitous. Bluecruise (and Supercruise) only work on mapped highways in the US (and China ?) and was only offfered in the higher cost models of the F-150. Again I think it will be a while before it is reaching the penetration levels you suggest.
Not really disagreeing with your numbers (apart from revenue per unit) but I believe you are probably a year or two early.
The only major stumbling block I see it the probability of another cash raise being required.
H1 cash burn was A$23.1m (up 71% from previous H1 13.5m).
Cash on hand 31 Dec 21 was A$79 m so end of June could see it down to A$ 55m or thereabouts - 14 months at H1 cash burn rate.
Given the increased investment in people and the delays in SOP due to covid supply chain issues it seems unavoidable that they will need to raise more funds - either through Share issue or other mechanism in the next 6 to 12 months.
The cash figure at 30 June will be critical to see if H1 was the high point in cash burn or if it continued at the same rate or higher during Q2.
I just do not see Revenue being at US$500m (a la Mobileye 2017) in 2/3 years.
At the moment they are getting approx A$350 per vehicle per annum in monitoring fees for Fleet and around A$1400 Hardware/Installation, and I estimate approx A$16 per vehicle in DMS License for each Car sold with DMS though it is a bit early to be precise with that one. (Caterpillar is pretty irrelevant - approx A$4m pa.)
You can work out some combinations of each to get to US$500m.(A$ 700m approx).
(The numbers above are based on the info in the last three financial statements - two 6 monthly, one annual)
I think he said the number of cars with SEE DMS would double each year which is a lot different. Current annual DMS license revenue is ?. I don’t recall the revenue doubling every six months comment but happy to be pointed to it.
In ways you are probably correct KBW101 - but as an emerging technology it could not possibly be good enough for all emerging uses at this early stage. Like all technology innovators they have a choice of developing, buying or licensing to keep moving forward.
I think the RNS is pretty neutral as of now - they have chosen an optics technology which they think will help keep them at the forefront of the race. Only time will tell if they have chosen well.
Given their technology record the odds are the choice works. If only their Fleet execution over the years was as good we would be in a much happier place.
I'm guessing this paragraph will dampen some investments for a while....
All good in the long term but getting longer it seems.
? Engineering costs rising to support programmes: Seeing Machines customers want to add a broad array of features and to supplement the core functions, and so Seeing Machines is having to invest in significant engineering capacity to support these them. We are now forecasting a higher EBITDA loss and cash burn over the next few years, which we believe can be supported by the recent A$55m net fund raise without the need for further equity financing.