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I tend to agree with you MrBB.
Which is why i queried some time back how they would structure an Aviation Licence to give greatest value to SEE as per PmcG they have no use for extra money in the company and they cannot distribute it as a dividend.
Intriguing - but a nice problem to have.
We already know the accounts will show a big loss. They cannot hold big wins for the results day. That is completely against stock exchange rules. Pointless in raising false expectations which will then be disappointed. Best we can hope for is confirmation of the positive forward looking sentiment....
How any Aviation License would be structured will be interesting. According to PMG they have no use for more cash now. Also they could not distribute to shareholders as dividend until they get rid of the Accumulated Losses from their Balance Sheet as I understand it - All Aus220m + of them. So that will take a few years after profitability is reached...
Indeed Amur - SEE have been, and continue to be, heavily loss making and up to now it was pretty clear they would need further funding to break through to profitability and become cash flow positive. A huge drag on the SP.
With the funding issue sorted and the revenue stream already under contract those concerns are largely put to bed imho. Now it is a timing issue and a question of when the market is in a happy place to recognise the value in SEE.
When that happens, and what the value will be, is a matter of speculation.
The fact that it will happen is in the realm of high probability imho -
The last 12 months have been pretty busy on all fronts - Automotive, Fleet and Aviation.
Now that the final funding issue is out of the way it is just a matter of timing and market appetite...imho.
Guardian Gen 3 could be the big disruptor in the next 12 months if they can get their Fleet act together. One wonders why Shell and associated transport companies would bother with Guardian Gen 2 when the very significant upgrade is on the horizon. Perhaps they will wait for Gen 3 before they commit the big volumes.
Collaboration with Magna, includes US$65 million investment, - Oct 2022
A$23m contract with existing Tier-1 and customer ex US, - June 2022
New Tier1, Euro OEM, Q'comm Snapdragon3, A$27m - June 2022
SEE Wins A$21m contract with 1st Japanese Carmaker, - May 2022
SEE enters strategic collaboration with a technology startup, - May 2022
SEE signs Occula License with US Semiconductor company - April 2022
SEE get Air Ambulance Victoria contract- Feb 2022
SEE Collaborates with Ambarella, Inc- Jan 2022
SEE Wins A$125m contract with 8th OEM, German via Magna - Dec 2021
SEE signs Collaboration Agreement with Collins Aero - Nov 2021
SEE signs Global Guardian agreement with Shell Global - Oct 2021
I think you are right there soulboy - with Aviation the press will be more from SEE's side I think as they really cannot afford to apply anywhere near the level of resources needed to take Aviation forward. So licensing to one or two of the big dogs is what they have repeatedly mentioned as the way forward.
The good news is that SEE are the only game in town in aviation so should have a very strong position from which to negotiate.
Timing however will be set by Licensees - not SEE.
Imho
"Mobileye notes ~800 vehicles incorporate its EyeQ system, with over 8.6 billion miles of road data collected"
The data collected did not relate to the EyeQ system....
" As of the end of last quarter, we had collected 8.6 billion miles of road data from, based on our estimates, approximately 1.5 million REM-enabled vehicles worldwide, "
Great stuff Brockwl, Thanks for the response....In the graph in PMG’s latest video the big jumps occur in fy25 and 26. Fy24 is roughly 9% of 24m ie approx 2.2m Car’s. So 1.9m more than fy22. That wouldn’t be too shabby but a long way short of your prospective 3.2m. Time will tell.......( I hope you are right!).....
Some numbers for anyone interested....treat them with extreme caution !!! and do point out any errors - as distinct from differences of opinion or assumptions of which there will be many.
The detail of which cars SEE may be in is interesting but looking at the wider picture we can estimate from PMG's latest Video if they will be profitable by Fy24.
For Fy22 they will make EBITDA of approx A$30m loss. So to break even they must generate sufficient additional revenue to generate at least A$30m additional EBITDA.
A few assumptions -
NRE is largely 0 Margin ie just a payment for costs incurred.
Similarly for Guardian Hardware sales
Caterpillar Revenue will not increase significantly(only about A$4m pa now)
No out of the blue Aviation License up-front payment.
DMS per new vehicle A$17 - as per 2022 a/cs
Guardian Monitoring revenue per vehicle A$360pa (as per 21 and first half 22 a/cs)
Assume DMS and Guardian Gross margin at 90% ( too high imho but lets be optimistic)
So to make up A$30m Extra in Ebitda they need an extra A$33.3m in DMS and Guardian Revenue.
By end Fy24 where might they be in terms of extra revenue..........
If guardian numbers increase by 16% in FY23 and FY24 there would be an extra 38,000 vehicles on the road contributing an extra A$13.7m in Revenue...(38,000 x 360).
The extra vehicles sold with SEE DMS in 2024(compared to the 320k in 2022) might be 1.0m (ie 1.3m for the year) contributing an extra A$17m in Revenue.
So by end FY2024 that would give us extra revenue of 30.7m - extra Ebitda of A$26m - so not yet in profit.
One can play around with any of the many assumptions above to give different results.
My best guesstimate at this stage is SEE could be profitable in H1 FY2025.
I agree with people who said postponing Monday's meeting was an over-reaction.
How a small meeting in the City or travel thereto could be disrupted is beyond me. People having to cancel their transport plans is likely to be much more disruptive to prospective attendees.
Perhaps news which they hoped would have dropped before the meeting has been delayed and they took the opportunity to push out in the hope it will land by then. We can but hope.
Cheers soul boy, That report states the NCAP did not included autopilot or FSD in the tests. Good to know....not sure why the NCAP tweet references the cabin-based camera system then....seems to be some cross purposes in the reporting...
To answer some of the questions........my opinion? I don’t know, .........torque comments, the tweet specifically specifies cabin camera dms......what testing regime? The utube video is pretty specific......Other reports? They were ventilated here- why not this one? ........ proper testing not kicked in? Thought it was in place since mid 2022, before these tests but others may have better info....
I’ve been waiting for the animated discussion on Tesla’s perfect score in driver monitoring in EuroNCAP. Instead not a single comment. Surely this is news worthy of dissection. A system that has regularly been denigrated on this forum gains top marks. What does it mean for DMS? What does it say about Tesla? What does it say about SEE’s dominance? What does it say about EuroNCAP and the impact it will or will not have on SEE as the leader in the field? I don’t know but I was hoping to be enlightened by some of the experts on here. I guess there is still time.
I wouldn't rely on Cenkos 7/8 year forecast.
After all they were something like $17m out in their cash forecast - in the current year.
A cynic might say SEE fed them high cash usage numbers so that the actuals would look good in comparison.
Result - focus on "better than expected cash" rather than the actual amount and how long it will last.