The ford numbers seem truly pitiful after all the hype and speculation. Mass adoption and volume uptake surely has to land in the next 12 months. No surprise they are burning through the cash...
No whatif.
Much current DMS is non-camera based. Perhaps that will continue.
Most DMS will not include OMS - hence the other 37M may be 1/ non Camera based or 2 / non OMS included single camera...
My interpretation....
The report talks about two things ...DMS going from 8 m in 2022 to 47 m in 2027. It also mentions specifically single camera DMS and OMS being 10 m in 2018. What I would like a breakdown of is who is supplying the 8 m DMS sales they estimate for 2022? SEE are only forecasting to be a very small proportion of that....
I expect those numbers will be pushed out a year or so due to Covid, Supply-chain and Chip shortage numbers.
But then the newer contracts should start kicking in towards the end of that time period.....
Only time will tell...
With the trading update due next month (3rd August in 2021 and 2020) thought it might be interesting to view the News items from the last 12 months.
With > 1BnAUS$ Quotations in play as well can they get the cash positive before a requirement for more funding ?
Apart from that proviso it looks like progress on all fronts.
**A$23m contract with existing Tier-1 and customer ex US, - June 2022 **
**New Tier1, Euro OEM, Q'comm Snapdragon3, A$27m - June 2022 **
**SEE Wins A$21m contract with 1st Japanese Carmaker, - May 2022 **
**SEE enters strategic collaboration with a technology startup, - May 2022 **
**SEE signs Occula License with US Semiconductor company - April 2022**
**SEE get Air Ambulance Victoria contract- Feb 2022 **
**SEE Collaborates with Ambarella, Inc- Jan 2022 **
**SEE Wins A$125m contract with 8th OEM, German via Magna - Dec 2021 **
**SEE signs Collaboration Agreement with Collins Aero - Nov 2021**
**Global Guardian agreement with Shell Global - Oct 2021 **
Possibly lots of shareholders who would like to cash out...who knows...
I dont think that is what the data says. yes 38,000 had enabled blue cruise, yes there were 43k mach-e sold, but you are ignoring the F150's sold - much higher than the mach-e numbers.
My caution is not based on the share price - it is based on the macro numbers...
sure - but must also consider declines as volumes ramp etc.
discussing things which only time will tell so suffice it say I am less optimistic than you for the short term....
Up to now my cautious outlook has been correct - maybe it is time for a change !!
H1 Financial reoport - DMS revenue divided by increase in vehicle with DMS during the 6 months.
Looking at the wider picture SEE is running at a loss rate of AUD30m per annum.
To convert that to a profit (at say 60% net profit margin )requires extra revenue of AUD50m. (Changing the net profit margin obviously gives different revenue numbers) I cannot see that happening in the next 18 months.
Thanks for that Aaroon - great to have some numbers.
revenue per unit - 20-25 dollars per unit - in H1 the number was approx AUS$16 so we will need to see where that falls.
BMW will have iDrive in all NEW models and Model Refreshes per the salesman. So a while before it is ubiquitous.
Bluecruise (and Supercruise) only work on mapped highways in the US (and China ?) and was only offfered in the higher cost models of the F-150. Again I think it will be a while before it is reaching the penetration levels you suggest.
Not really disagreeing with your numbers (apart from revenue per unit) but I believe you are probably a year or two early.
Time will tell.
"Pretty obvious now that SEE is profitable by 2023 ".
Hi Aaroon,
How do you calculate that and what do you mean by 2023 ?
All of calendar year 2023 ?
The last month of 2023 ?
Fiscal year ending 30 June 2023 ?
I doubt the company will be profitable in any of those time frames (perhaps December, 2023) but time will tell.
I do hope you are right and I am wrong.
The only major stumbling block I see it the probability of another cash raise being required.
H1 cash burn was A$23.1m (up 71% from previous H1 13.5m).
Cash on hand 31 Dec 21 was A$79 m so end of June could see it down to A$ 55m or thereabouts - 14 months at H1 cash burn rate.
Given the increased investment in people and the delays in SOP due to covid supply chain issues it seems unavoidable that they will need to raise more funds - either through Share issue or other mechanism in the next 6 to 12 months.
The cash figure at 30 June will be critical to see if H1 was the high point in cash burn or if it continued at the same rate or higher during Q2.
No argument the numbers will increase Terry.
I just do not see Revenue being at US$500m (a la Mobileye 2017) in 2/3 years.
At the moment they are getting approx A$350 per vehicle per annum in monitoring fees for Fleet and around A$1400 Hardware/Installation, and I estimate approx A$16 per vehicle in DMS License for each Car sold with DMS though it is a bit early to be precise with that one.
(Caterpillar is pretty irrelevant - approx A$4m pa.)
You can work out some combinations of each to get to US$500m.(A$ 700m approx).
(The numbers above are based on the info in the last three financial statements - two 6 monthly, one annual)
" £1 is great but in 2 /3 Years, why shouldn't we be worth at least what Mobileye was in 2017. Similar market share, similar turnover etc "
Mobileye Annual turnover run rate in 2017 was US$ 500m with Annual net income(profit) run rate of US$ 130m. (from the Q1 accounts).
Let's hope we reach those numbers in 2 - 3 years as you suggest.
" £1 is great but in 2 /3 Years, why shouldn't we be worth at least what Mobileye was in 2017. Similar market share, similar turnover etc "
The biggest difference I see is the revenue per vehicle - In 2017 for Mobilieye it was US$45 per unit per their accounts.
I think he said the number of cars with SEE DMS would double each year which is a lot different. Current annual DMS license revenue is ?. I don’t recall the revenue doubling every six months comment but happy to be pointed to it.