We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Thanks Major,
I agree with your 2021 figure.
For 2022 I agree with your vehicles figure.
But I believe your Revenue figure should be AUS$ 3.2m (ie 2.3m x 139%)
(5.449m figure you used is the cumulative 2021 and 2022 revenue)
My apologies - Made an error in my calculation of OEM Royalty per vehicle for 2022.
Revenue went from Aus$ 2.3m (2021 a/cs) to Aus$5.5m (139% increase as per the RNS)
Vehicles went from 129k to 447k (per RNS) (246% increase as per the RNS)
So new vehicles(Fy2022) = 318k
Royalty Revenue (F2022)= AUS$3.2m
Royalty Revenue per vehicle = AUS$ 10.06 ( 3.2m / 318k) US$7.1 approx.
If anyone finds an error in my calculation please advise - otherwise I think this is a very important question to put to the PMG at the upcoming meeting if not before as it directly impacts on future revenues and therefore valuation.
(as well as the question re Guardian catch-up - is it end H1 2023 as stated or end H1 FY2023 as we all hope ? )
High margin Automotive royalty revenues up 139%
Start of production vehicles on road now at 447,000, up 246%
Implication - royalty per vehicle has dropped by approx 30% (My estimate from approx Aus€ 18 per vehicle in Fy2021 to approx AUS$12 in 2022)
June 22 - Guardian Connected units 39,832 (Plus 2,000 ordered)
June 21 - Guardian Connected units 31,771 (Plus 5,000 sold not connected)
(5,174 connected in FY21)
Implication - 8,061 units connected in Fy22, 3,061 sold, 2,000 ordered not sold or connected at year-end. Fewer sales, more connections than in Fy2021.
"Supply chain issues have been resolved with the Company's manufacturer, resulting in their guarantee to deliver satisfactory levels of stock by the end of H1 2023 to meet the growing demand for Guardian hardware "
Is this a typo ? it is the only place they referenced a year without "FY" before it . Do they mean H1 2023 or H1 FY2023 ? Only they know.
Cash Burn
H1 Fy2021 13.5m
H2 FY2021 17.8m
H1 FY2022 23.1m
H2 FY2022 20m
Cash on hand 30 June 2022 59m
(looks like it will be a close run thing - but good news that they may have turned the cash-burn around.)
(I note some people feel that Cenkos forecast figures should be seen as gospel in determining whether there may still be a need for fund-raising. This despite the fact they were $18m out in their estimate of June 22 figure - what irony)
Hi chutzpahtaker,
Your post, copied in the previous post, asked some very good questions about Cash and why some of us mention it now and again. Since I am one of those who are interested in the cash position here is my tuppence worth.....
First of all we are not obsessed with cash but do consider it an important element of the investment case.
In my case for two reasons - it helps inform the value to which the SP will rise and the timing of possible realisation of profits for investors.
Future cash raises via equity may serve to depress the SP as Institutional investors may wait for a placing or, worst case, sell-off in advance.
Your point that a company like Seeing Machines raises money to invest is absolutely true. However when it raises funds and does not meet the expectations set by the company itself then investors need to be wary.
Below are details of the last four major fundraises and a sentence from each RNS setting the expectation. Based on those unmet expectations it is reasonable to question how much still needs to be invested and when will it generate a return for investors like you and me. That is the possible weakness - divergence between company set expectations and reality to date.
You ask why not just accept Cenkos figures ? Precisely for the reason that they are based on company info - which we see above is highly suspect and overoptimistic (until you see the comment from the latest fundraising - referencing market share in 2025)
I am fully confident that SEE will succeed.
What that success means in terms of a return on my investment will be directly affected by 1) Timing - how long to Cash flow neutral and 2) How much dilution will there be in the meantime (if any).
All imho.....
20/03/2019 AUS$64m 917m
Whilst the complexities of this fast-developing market and the influence of the OEMs in determining the timings of future contract awards, engineering or milestone payments and the commencement of volume production runs make forecasting beyond the Company's current financial year difficult, the Group's current booked revenue from existing OEM programs and its market-leading position lead it to forecast profitability break-even in the first half of 2023 (calendar year)
23/10/2020 US$20m 372m Shares
We are delighted that this placement, together with our other initiatives and business opportunities is expected to fully fund our current business plan."
22/03/2021 AUS$10m 68m shares
The net proceeds of the Purchase further strengthens the Company's balance sheet and is expected to fund the business through to profitability.
22/11/2021 AUS$40m 270m shares
Seeing Machines expects to be on track for increased market share by 2025, based on today's 'active RFQ' pipeline.
20/03/2019 AUS$64m
Whilst the complexities of this fast-developing market and the influence of the OEMs in determining the timings of future contract awards, engineering or milestone payments and the commencement of volume production runs make forecasting beyond the Company's current financial year difficult, the Group's current booked revenue from existing OEM programs and its market-leading position lead it to forecast profitability break-even in the first half of 2023 (calendar year)
23/10/2020 US$20m 372m Shares
We are delighted that this placement, together with our other initiatives and business opportunies is expected to fully fund our current business plan."
22/03/2021 AUS$10m 68m shares
The net proceeds of the Purchase further strengthens the Company's balance sheet and is expected to fund the business through to profitability.
22/11/2021 AUS$40m 270m shares
Seeing Machines expects to be on track for increased market share by 2025, based on today's 'active RFQ' pipeline.
The nature of a business like SEE is to raise capital and spend it in the development of its product / service. If it didn't do this then it wd shut down. That is its purpose.
So why are folk pointing this out as a weakness?
The measure is instead this: do they utilise resources in an effective manner or do they crap it all away? The reason to invest or not to must be based on this.
As to cash burn, why shd anyone rely on the (historic) info that folks on here use. The best info is that provided in the brokers's note i.e. Cenkos. Why reinvent the wheel. Cenkos, at least, have the benefit of SEE input.
In any event, cash burn changes as the business evolves.
Even more, the cash flow grid for 10 years shows that this stage of cash burn is fast coming to an end.
In the meantime, for those obsessed with cash flow, the licence nature of the products means that if it happens then the business becomes a licence to print money.
Of course the sp is up seeing 2020. It is a wonderful company with world leading tech in a nascent market and seemingly battered by a forced seller who hopefully is now out. What has that got to do with the cash position? I don’t understand your repeated antipathy to factual posts. I notice you didn’t correct the recent inaccurate posts about the f-150 lightning volumes and associated blue cruise. I’m sure as the resident expert you spotted them straight away. Perhaps you were composing a post to make sure investors were not inadvertently misled. Or to put it another way.... please stop commenting on my posts unless you find some inaccuracy you wish to correct, because your predictable snide remarks are painful.
Let's hope it is sooner than later Lewbo. Until the volume comes through SEE are haemorrhaging cash.
If they can anounce very significant RFQ wins soon it may allow them raise funds (if needed) by loan rather then Share issue.
A comprehensive update at end of month could be a catalyst if it is detailed and not just regurgitating the "positive vibes".
Excellent Blue-Cruise "How to" video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk_dpv_a5RE
Not all versions of the F-150 Lightning have Blue Cruise - as mentioned before...
"Both the Lightning Lariat and Platinum can be equipped with Blue Cruise (it’s standard on the Platinum), Ford’s hands-free semi-autonomous driving system."
Great video, in support of my point Nick specifically called out that the OEM's are starting off with SEE in the high end "Premium" models.
" Increasing 2x, 3x next year " in his words gives another 1m units max in y/e June 2023.
Translates in Revenue to perhaps $20m extra - still not enough to get to profitability - even with possible significant upside in fleet.
To me this is not a debate about how good SEE tech is, or even how far ahead they are in the market share - it is about timing, cash flow, financing requirements (if any).
Time will tell.....
In contrast to the EC Regs, Euro NCAP tests which come into play in Jan 2023 do specifically require Cameras or other facial sensing for what they term "Driver State Monitoring".
https://cdn.euroncap.com/media/70315/euro-ncap-assessment-protocol-sa-safe-driving-v101.pdf
3.5 Driver State Monitoring
For the evaluation of Driver State Monitoring systems (DMS), Euro NCAP requires a
dossier from the OEM containing a detailed technical assessment.
The dossier should contain:
- Sensing, providing evidence that the sensing system is capable of sensing a wide
variety of different drivers and that is able to operate in a wide range of
circumstances.
- Driver state, demonstrating which elements of Distraction, Drowsiness and
Unresponsive Driver can be identified by the system
- Vehicle response, detailing the vehicle response to a certain driver state.
To be eligible to score points the OEM must demonstrate by means of a dossier that they
meet the general requirements set out in 3.5.1 and the noise variable requirements (direct
monitoring systems only) set out in 3.5.2.
To score points the OEM must demonstrate by means of a dossier that they meet both the
detection requirements set out in 3.5.3 and the related response requirements set out in 3.5.4.
The breakdown of points available is set out in 3.6.
Euro NCAP test labs will conduct (spot) testing to validate the data supplied in the dossier
According to the attached the New EU Regs require "DDAW " Driver Drowsiness and Attention Warning. But there is no requirements for this to be by Camera. It could equally be by Steering inputs, lane positioning etc.
Hence my concern that Cameras will be used for the higher end - low volume - and not the high volume / Low end for years to come. Certainly I think many commercial Vans and family cars will predominantly look to the lower end spec.
SEE may win 50% + of the RFQ's they respond to. But these RFQ's may not represent a major proportion of new vehicles imho.
In time DMS by Camera will likely trickle down. But this is the continuing conundrum - how long ?
https://www.interregs.com/articles/spotlight/eu-regulation-on-driver-drowsiness-and-attention-warning-systems-published-000233
" Due to the fact that DDAW systems are intended to assess the behavioural characteristics of a human driver, it has not proved possible to adequately determine their effectiveness without utilising human participants in the validation testing. Furthermore, the Delegated Regulation deliberately avoids being technology prescriptive by not specifying which combination of indirect means, e.g. monitoring the steering inputs from the driver, monitoring the vehicle’s road positioning within the lane markings, etc., manufacturers must utilise to determine the alertness of the driver. The combination of these two factors has meant that it was not possible to define one standard set of test procedures which can adequately assess the performance of all DDAW systems. Therefore, this Delegated Regulation adopts a different approach to that used in previous EU Regulations."