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On a pure pro rata basis my rough figures show that for Guardian - H1 2018 revenues were A$4.2m equivalent to 5000 units. H2 2018 was A$9.5m and 11000 units coming to the reported number of A$13.7m and 16000 units. If we are conservatively predicting 4000 for H1 2019 then on a volume basis that would equate to an 80% increase vs prior year - not bad at all. For H2 and taking the numbers from the full year outlook of a 68% increase ( in RNS) we would sell a further 7000 units ( at least) taking the full year up by 11000 - an increase of 63% vs H2 2019 and finishing the year at 27000 units
As others have pointed out though Guardian revenue is off a low base and so because Auto doesn’t really kick in until 2022, the impacts on total sales is not as large as we’d hope - OEM wins therefore definitely needed to shift the SP
6 million trucks do not have to have DMS in 30 months. It’s only new production models that have to - so not even all new lorries have to if they are from a model that was designed in 2020 for example.
So in terms of auto if the next generation of VW golf is not due to be launched until 2024 that means any new golfs on the existing model don’t have to have DMS because I don’t believe the new eu regs state that car manufacturers have to redesign all their existing models.
The law is great but I still think we are 4-5 yrs away from have a large penetration in cars and lorries. What the law has done is force OEMs to make supplier decisions because most will have some kind of new model launch in 2021 ie it might not be the golf for vw but it could be the Passat, Tiguan, polo or even Up!
Once they have made that decision it’s likely they will stick with that supplier as they role out new models with DMS
Red: If I am not mistaken Shlem (and I agree with him ) is saying that 20,000 units is a drop in the ocean of more than 6 million trucks on Europe's roads that need to install DMS within 30 months. How on earth that will happen when we can only install a few thousand a month I don't know.
Maybe 20,000 within Auto is a drop in the ocean but at present Fleet is a big contributor to SEEs turnover and how well it does dictates to a certain extent when SEE will be at breakeven or better. And, due to well documented problems that emerged last year (which we are told have been fixed) is also the main reason the SP is where it is. Fleet figures today are as important as Auto contract wins.
We're chasing our tails here. In the greater scheme of things 20k installations is a drop in the proverbial ocean though this should change when new laws kick in but that's a year or so away. It would be interesting if some of the large truck and van makers start installing DMS during the production phase of new vehicles
Yes, couldn't agree more. Even the $8 cost saving by itself is 'financially significant' and yet nothing that I can remember has been issued. Assuming SEE hits the mid point 28,500 units that's, including the $8 million and unit cost, just about $20 million without any monthly fees. Cenkos and SEE has to get serious.
Red, I just dont see how a house broker can admit they have under forecasted on purpose, and Paul McIminent was very clear at CMD that the Cenkos numbers are his numbers, so they are all complicite in misleading the market
Well, unless the numbers are lying, there is or soon will be at least 20,000 units installed. So, perhaps Cenkos should do a proper forecast, also including the cost saving (which for a company the size, at present, as SEE, is sizeable)?
Let's not forget the inconsistency between the financial forecast of A$20m and the installed base forecast of 27-30k units.
- A$20m in revenue is only about 20,000 installed base at June 2020, by my calcs - we also have the A$8m cost reduction which isnt in the forecast.
I haven't made this up its Cenkos on 23rd Sept who told us
"Furthermore, there is clear upside left in several revenue lines: we have been cautious on Automotive DMS production as the industry looks like it is moving slowly despite regulatory pressures, our Fleet connection forecasts are based on connections below the guidance of 27-30k, and Aviation and other Off-Road sales or license deals are all left as upside"
I have bought Paul McIminent a truth serum for xmas
Adjusting it for the shorter period, using the average over 5 months would lead to 20,619 units installed /connected but with the holidays coming who knows (and maybe be not installing the same numbers as in July, August etc
With whatif s post he’s quoting from 10 July upto last week, so in reality that’s 5 months not 6. So from now until The end of June is 6 1/2 months, Plus they said installations are increasing, and with the price per unit lower should help to increase installation. So the 27-30 units guide is probably achievable.
The Fleet number has increased to 41.6m km for the last week. Since the large jump on Wednesday we have had about 180,000 km per day more than the previous week, (less over the weekend as you would expect). When we had fleet confirmed at 16,000 units on 10th July we had 33.4m km in a week. (We were on 24m km per week at the start of the year). I am expecting the figure to drop a little over the next week and another drop over Christmas and New Year.