I share this as a genuine shareholder who has held this stock for over 6 years and always posting my views and research, many people ask me why I bother (some times I ask myself that), the answer to that is most times I post something and one of the other genuine holders will add to it or notice things I don't. If you don't like my opinion please filter me, however any more personal insults or comparing me to dictators and I will leave this board and not return.
So after doing some workings on the Fleet numbers I can concur with Terrys overall A$53 per unit per month, however we have 2 models in operation, so these number may not be 100% accurate but are my view.
1) model A , hardware cost built into the monthly fee = $A60pcm ($30pcm for monitoring and A$30pcm for hardware over 3 years)
2) Model B, hardware cost paid upfront and the a lower monthly fee = $A30pcm
3) Overall blended rate , 16,000 * A$60pcm + 4,551 * $A$30pcm = A$13.2m recurring
4) H1 numbers for Fleet are therefore
16,000 * A460 * 6 = $A5.7m
4,551 (spread across 6 months ) * A$30 = A$1.7m
4,551 * A$1k (hardware paid upfront) = A$4.5m
Total Feet H1 = A$12m
imo that's in the right ballpark.
if we achieve 27,000 installed base for full-year my model gets us above A$20m, so I am content we will his the forecast of A$20m.
Please feel free to tell me on 31/12/2020 that I am wrong about this share, however until then I am early not wrong
Wilson, I dont think we know for sure, the extract you posted states "European" whilst the CES RNS said
"Seeing Machines and Qualcomm Technologies are working closely on an optimized implementation of the Seeing Machines' DMS solution for a global premium automaker. The technology is scalable across different tiers of ****pit systems utilizing the Snapdragon platforms' efficient heterogenous computing blocks and Seeing Machines and Qualcomm Technologies intend to support this integrated solution more broadly across the automotive industry."
So I dont know if this is one of our 9 DW , perhaps Daimler or is it a new and yet tba DW
After reading the RNS 300 times and referring too my own workings I feel ready to comment
1) Revenue A$15.8m H1, full year "in line with expectations"
Lower than my range for H1
- fleet is in line with my guestimate at 20k+ installed base and I assume revenue of A$10-12m
- auto must be way down and I can only concur with Cenkos that this due to the expected NRE (non recurrent engineering ) payments for the RFQ expected in H1, Volvo & VAG imo.
2 ) license deal
- zero in forecast for a license deal but its worth noting the language used in the RNS, videos can be ignored by the market but someone is putting their reputation on closing a deal now
"The previously announced licensing strategy continues to develop and the Company remains in advanced discussions with multiple parties. "
3) We will win RFQ
- he doesn't say we expect RFQ results, much stronger language than that
"Seeing Machines continues to see, and respond to, a rich mix of OEM opportunities across the world with both existing and new customers, and expects to be successful on a number of RFQs over the calendar year."
So I am ok with a slight miss on my H1 expectations, I like the positive language and imo Paul Mc will deliver
My understanding of the pension lifetime allowance is that any amount above the lifetime allowance (currently £1.055m and raises with inflation each year) is taxed at 55% , again my understanding is you trigger the tax liability by taking out the cash and you have to be at SIPP pension age (currently 55 rising to 57)
However its what I describe as a first world problem, the more tax you pay the more successful your investment has been
Example 1: £1m SIPP pop and at SIPP pension age
£250k Tax Free lump
£750k remaining to take as income if you choose
Example 2: £2m pot, at pension tax age
Assume LTA is £1m for ease
Tax paid £1m *.55 = £550k
Tax free 25% of £1m = £250k
Remaining to take as income as you choose £750k
Extra cash net of the tax paid (£1m-550k) = £450k
so if you have a £2m pot rather than the LTA of £1m you are £450k better off after tax, its a good problem to have
ET, I am always wary of posters who change their mind on a constant basis, the good thing about a BB is you can't rewrite history no matter how hard you try. I don't post on the SEYE BB as I am invested in SM not SEYE.
You might or might not remember your post below from March 2019 (way back ages ago )
"Total hype train for this stock.. The management is useless and all I heard was how SEYE eye tracking was useless and how SEE was superior. This is what happens when you buy stocks with low management ownership. They don’t give a damn about the shareholders. Buy SEYE much better choice 30% management ownership. They would never pull anything like this off. This needs to be investigated. Insiderinformation has leaked out. Safestock and semicast were so sure. I hope they are ready when SEYE takes 50-60% of the DMS market."
ET, not sure what your point is, does this mean they are at the level SM were in 2014?, in the same article they mention the BMW models with their tech, but if their tech is so high performing why did BMW move to SM?
I believe a bulletin board exists for SEYE investors
I have listened to this a few times now and it's not the interview of someone who is going to disappoint with the Trading Update
In his conclusion at around 6:45 he says
"Entire industry is saying, your product will be in every vehicle"
He also mentions a market size of 100m per annum
Klick, rightly he was careful not to mention any numbers not in the public domain.
Ie 20k fleet + mining is the June 19 numbers
70% increase on fleet is 16,000 × 1.7 = 27,000 so FY20 target.
Very positive on Japan which is good
Well looking further back we have this announcement in May18, my view with all the Fleet issues this 2,500 units slipped, however you will notice it has an end date of 31st Dec 2019, my view is we have had a very busy 6 months in fleet....
"16 May 2018 Seeing Machines Limited (AIM: SEE) (“Seeing Machines” or the “Company”), an industry leader in computer vision technologies which enable machines to see, understand and assist people, is delighted to announce a significantly extended agreement for a further 2,500 units of the Company’s fleet product, Guardian, with Western Australia based distributor, Connect Source. The Guardian units are expected to be sold and installed into the distributor’s customers over the coming 18 months, and will include ongoing monitoring services, with an agreed timeframe for all installations to be complete by December 2019. "
I have been reading the recent Fleet RNS's as in the absence of a Trading Update from Paul McShortly I want to reassure myself
1) Installed base end June 19 was 16,000
2) Target for year to June 2020 is 27,000-30,000
3) Cenkos financial forecast is based on "less than the 27,000 installed base target"
So I would conclude that 20k+ installed base at 31/12/2019 and we will well over perform the financial target
So start point is 16k, and we have this RNS on 13th June 19 (17 days before end of previous financial year) so safe to assume the trebling by Dec 2019 happens in the current financial year
RNS Extract 13th June 2019
" Autosense has renewed distribution terms with Seeing Machines and intends to treble its current installed base by the end of 2019. "
so the NZ distributor stated it would treble its installed base in the 6 months to 31st Dec 2019, how many new units is that ?
Well this article quotes 1,300 and trebling to 4,000 , so I am going to assume 2,500 in the 6 months to Dec 31st
so just with the New Zealand distributor I get from 16,000 to 18,500.
What other evidence do we have ??
Nat Express 700 (end July 19 RNS)
Dubai Buses 375
Mexico / Latin America 500-1,000
So I'm getting close to that 20k just on the few examples I have reminded myself of this morning.
Also on the board here
Jamie has over ten years of quoted small cap experience alongside ten years of private equity and venture capital experience. He is an ACA, has a Mathematics degree from Oxford University and an MSC from UCL. Jamie is lead Portfolio Manager for the 1798 Volantis Catalyst Funds I & II and also leads the team’s active engagement capability.
Jamie was appointed to the Board in October 2018, he is an employee of Lombard Odier Investment Managers, a significant shareholder in the Company and previously sat on the Board between 2010 and 2013.