George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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Interesting to see savannah energy tagged to this particular session by a linked in post from energy capital and power. Could we line up a renewable project in Libya ?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/energy-capital-power_lees2024-oilandgas-energy-activity-7152280083725004800-ysav?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Good to know we are still a going concern!
We are silver sponsors this week at Libya energy weekend summit this weekend . Let’s hope we are sponsors of actual substance and it means something in terms of partnerships rather than sponsors to just fill our time
https://x.com/energycappower/status/1746191920185966663?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
https://x.com/energycappower/status/1746191920185966663?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Crikey cyb, it took 12 years from signing to get ratified! Better hunker back down in the bunker for a decade at least then!
Https://cityreviewss.com/cabinet-ratifies-investment-pact-with-china/
Good morning scotpak and thank you very much for your update on the Nigerian situation and in particular the currency aspect.
Let's hope we continue in the same direction. We don't need any further shocks to the core business
Https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/moodys-upgrades-outlook-nigeria-positive-2023-12-08/
Hi Noix
I'm far from being a Nigerian expert but if you look at Nigerian USD bond spreads (nigerian bond spread - US treasury bond spreads) they continue to tighten. There are several reasons for this. There is of course the recent pivot by US FED who are now signalling rate cuts for 2024 which has put downward pressure on the USD which has been positive for all Emerging mkts including Nigeria. More specific to Nigeria, Moodys upgraded Nigeria's credit outlook from stable to positive. Although the rating is still very low (Caa1) its still a positive development recognising the recent positive momentum from recent fiscal reforms. In addition, Nigeria's current account has improved massively to a surplus of +3.5% of GDP. All these development should help stabilize the Naira, and should help attract more foreign inflows. To conclude many fundamental and mkt pricing signals which indicate things in Nigeria continue to improve.
Scotpak
Given your expertise on the topic any new thoughts on the Nigerian business and more particularly the Naira situation ?
100% full agreement with all your comments FFT.
With the lack of info about what is going on within all aspects of SAVE (not just SS), and the fact that this has been suspended for over a year, I get the feeling that this is turning into a crusade for AK. Which is not good.
With no news by the end of January, the shares should be unsuspended and full info on progress across the company released. It will then be upto the market to decide what the company is worth and whether it has been performing ok or is a laughing stock. It will also allow AK to step down or be ejected and maybe a private equity firm will see value and buy us out.
I do not want the shares suspended any longer. It is dead money that I could use elsewhere.
Just a thought but Canadian oil and gas companies are seriously discounted at the moment. Surely if we were not so stringent on Africa oil and gas M&A it would be a pretty decent place to look for assets
If we do get an extension i think they should just go for a bigger extension like end of March, April or May rather than till the end of Feb 24.
A bigger extension just stops unnecessary debate and better manages expectation rather than progressive incremental extensions.
Yes, that's true. Hopefully we at least get a better understanding of where we are at in a couple of weeks.
The II’s may not support going back to back into another RTO. I think if AIM don’t allow a further extension at any point we would issue a BAU AD, ie come back as we were before.
RR, I've not come across any company that's been forced off by AIM. I've come across a couple of companies that have chosen to delist and go private, but both turned out to be frauds so I don't think that's a comparison worth making. I'm pretty sure AIM wouldn't force SAVE off just because they got fed up with waiting, if they knew that SAVE would immediately suspend for another reverse takeover.
I was just making the observation that forcing them to abandon the transaction might not achieve their aim of getting SAVE back trading if they just popped up with another reverse takeover. Even if we get another extension 1st Feb, hopefully we'll get some sort of an update that gives us more info. than we know at the moment.
Does anybody know of any previous de-list scenarios and how they work?
AIM have not said to complete by dd/mm/yyyy, they have asked to see significant progress as they were not happy with the speed at which things were happening previously.
RR,
just musing on your option 1 pull out or be forced out of the deal by 1/2/24
a) If AIM tell SAVE that they must complete by x date or they have to delist, then if there is still a good chance of completion but have not completed by x date, then delisting might well be the best option. For most people I would imagine that completion of SS deal pretty much derisks their investment here (obviously dependent on average buy in price and where the sp settles) so the delist option, whilst not great, might be better than just abandoning the deal because they couldn't meet AIMs date.
b) Given AK's stated objective of completing another acquistion by 2023, then If SAVE did pull out we could possibly just go straight into another reverse takeover situation if that is ready to announce. If that is the case then you can understand why SAVE want to complete the SS deal, no matter how long it takes. Not sure many of us would want them to pull out of the deal because of a demand by AIM just to go into suspension again.
Https://x.com/dangotegroup/status/1745946178410144097?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Looks like the dangote refinery has finally commenced
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-13/why-nigeria-s-new-oil-refinery-is-being-called-a-game-changer?leadSource=uverify%20wall
I hope oil exports are not getting held up from Port Sudan. Am hoping Port Sudan is a bit too far North in the Red Sea and is not affected by the Yemen issues a bit lower down. Maybe the oil tankers simply sail North from South Sudan and trundle on up through the Suez.
Oil rising tonight on a the news that the US & UK have started to bomb the Houthis in Yemen. POO could shoot up if Iran chose to get involved and retaliate to support Yemen. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Lebanon getting more involved attacking Isreal from the North. This is a very dangerous situation.
K - I sincerely hope we don’t take that route.
LST - precisely and was my initial thought (although my info is a few weeks old now) Chicken or Egg and all the that good stuff.
RR doesn't that now put us in a very precarious catch 22 situation where debt providers won't engage without govt sources and SS govt who will be of the opinion who are you prove you have the funds ?
Ah ok, thanks for the update RR, appreciated.
One other option I guess is to delist from AIM and carry on the deal as a private company, with a view to relisting at a later date, though that's not altogether desireable as listings are pretty expensive things in themselves. Hopefully we'll get some more clarity on 1st Feb.
K - I am not speculating and in very brief summary I’ll put it in to 2 points:-
1 AIM are not happy with the progress they were expecting to see prior to the agreement of this extension period we are now in. They have mandated that progress is made, mainly in regards to the SS by 1st Feb if a further extension is to be agreed.
2 Debt finance institutions (not Accugas finance) for the SS deal are not progressing their workstreams until we have some sort of new commitments from the SS deal. Their costs to put the deal together are very expensive and they are not prepared to spend the cash as things currently stand.
Now this bit is my opinion. If we were to get the commitment from SS Government (whatever AIM are asking for and I’m not saying a 100% final sign off) by 1st Feb, I believe the debt finance work packages will only re-start in earnest at that point. Then the debt packages would take 4 - 8 weeks to put together.
I think we will either:-
1 pull out or be forced out of the deal by 1/2/24
2 issue a half-baked AD and continue working through the tough parts of the deal
Or hopefully
3 keep AIM happy with progress to allow a further extension
Finally if it is 3 I think we would remain suspended for quite some time post 1st Feb. And as you say, the longer we his goes on, the less the debt finance required. Unless of course the Government and or Petronas start to change the rules if there is not a bi enough hard cash payment to them.
That’s all I’ll be saying on this subject for now.