Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hey cj - I’ll lighten the mood before the weekend and roll forward your scenario:-
We can the SS deal
Go back to back in to another RTO (If allowed by NOMAD & AIM)
We see 1.5kboepd first oil in Niger
Our 35mboe in Niger move from 2C to 2P
We do a huge farm out in Niger for >$300m
We are awarded >$500m from the ICC cases
We restructure Accugas debt
We complete compression in Nigeria
We add 20kboepd incremental gas sales in Nigeria
We re-list with the RTO complete with another 10k-20kboepd
SP then?
Have a nice weekend and less than 2 weeks to go before we see a further extension to our suspension!
Thanks very much. Debt restructuring and Niger answers have reassured me to some extent. I wouldn't expect any other useful information. Enjoy reading everyone's posts over the years here ...... there's no bulletin board as good as this one. I've got plenty of skin in the game approximately 25% of my total investments are in SAVE. I still have my doubts the South Sudan will go ahead. However I wonder whether they will announce abandonment of South Sudan but the RTO of a different divested asset of Petronas/ or another Major and continue suspension of the shares? I'm in no hurry for us to begin trading as I think we'll take a large drop .....I've no idea maybe as much as 50%
Massive thank you from me too RR.
Thanks RR, appreciated as ever.
Nothing earth shattering but I think it’s good to keep a line of comms in to IR. My comments:-
Good to see Accugas debt restructuring still expected to close soon and not linked to anything else.
Maybe we could see a nice surprise to the 35mboe 2C moving to 2P and first oil in niger sometime this year.
Good to hear that Accugas compression project still on track to complete mid year. As TiL says let’s hope we add new customers and add to existing customers supplies during H2.
ICC cases, clearly they are saying absolutely nothing until significant news can be announced.
SS RTO text book reply and anything at all could be going on there be it good or bad. But you know what I’ve said about more of a government commitments before debt providers take us seriously and deem it worth their while funding their legal costs to put the debt packages together.
1 As we did not see the Accugas debt re-finance close in Q4 2023 as expected, are there any significant problems with the deal? If not when can we expect it to close and is it independent or interdependent of anything else going on in the company?
It is expected to close shortly, and I confirm it is entirely independent of anything else which is ongoing.
2 Now the Niger pipeline is completed / operational and also that borders seem to be opening up, have things changed for the better at all with regard our well test program and first oil?
We have noted the recent developments with regard to Niger (including the inauguration of the export pipeline) and will update the market on our plans in due course. As detailed in our recent 2023 Half Year Results announcement, Savannah remains committed to the 35 MMstb (Gross 2C Resources) R3 East oil development in South East Niger.
3 How is the compression project going in Nigeria and when is the expected completion date?
The compression project is on track and, as previously announced, is expected to complete in mid-2024.
4 How are things going with the 3/4 ICC cases re Chad / Doba and when can we expect to see an update on this huge issue?
We will provide further updates as appropriate in relation to the progress of these matters.
5 With regard the Petronas RTO, what is the cause of multiple suspension extensions? If we are so close to deal completion, why can't Savannah issue an admission document, lift the suspension and then work on any outstanding work streams such as Government and shareholder approval whilst we are trading again? How long can we keep being suspended for before the Alternate Investment Market (AIM) and our NOMAD Strand Hanson mandate that we pull the deal and re-list our shares from trading again?
I appreciate your frustration but, as we announced on 14 December 2023, we continue to advance the various workstreams required to complete the acquisition of PETRONAS International Corporation Limited’s energy business in South Sudan. Further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.
Chevron CEO has said the oil market is likely heading for a supply crunch 2025 Onwards. There is never a better time to secure oil acquisitions than 2024. If only we can bring home a material oil acquisition this year...................................
https://boereport.com/2024/01/16/market-to-be-short-oil-from-2025-onwards-occidental-ceo-at-davos/
Shell suspends red sea shipments indefinitely if things continue or escalate we could see $100 oil and stronger gas prices in Q1, the supply disruption is real it will be interesting to see how oil and gas equities respond to this in the next few days and weeks as supply concerns continue to mount.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/shell-suspends-red-sea-shipments-amid-fears-of-more-houthi-attacks-c7fa936d
After the commissioning of Dangote refinery looks like Port Harcourt refinery is also due to come online.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nigeria-seeks-operators-state-owned-port-harcourt-oil-refinery-2024-01-15/
Looks Like Shell has sold it's onshore Nigerian assets to Renaissance, a consortium of five companies for up to $2.4 billion. Renaissance is made up of ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P, Waltersmith and Petrolin.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/shell-agrees-sell-its-nigeria-onshore-oil-gas-business-2024-01-16/
Again from the list of names in the consortium it seems like african independents are always the preferred buyers for the sellers, as governments are likely to approve deals involving local independents and foreign independents. I still remain of the opinion that foreign independents will find it extremely hard to close deals in africa the real winners for african divestments from majors will be local African independents.
Https://afentraplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Petroleum-Outlook-2024-Afentra-article.pdf
Let’s hope we have done some leg work at summit alongside being silver sponsors can see savannah applying for a few licences in upcoming bid rounds
https://energycapitalpower.com/oil-gas-bid-rounds-imminent-announces-libya-summits-finance-panel/?utm_content=278415192&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-3468678856
Chuckles over a post-run beer!
By the way (and I know this wasn't your comment, komakino), if financing is the problem holding up the SS deal, surely Knotty would be in Geneva and not Juba. Banks aren't going to finance it. It'll be PXF from Petronas or a trading house or someone private with a larger risk appetite where this ticket would be relatively small for them.
The minister for petroleum, Puot Kang Chol, has been awfully quiet. I wonder who else is padding about the Juba government buildings with a visitor badge on.
Interesting to see savannah energy tagged to this particular session by a linked in post from energy capital and power. Could we line up a renewable project in Libya ?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/energy-capital-power_lees2024-oilandgas-energy-activity-7152280083725004800-ysav?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
Good to know we are still a going concern!
We are silver sponsors this week at Libya energy weekend summit this weekend . Let’s hope we are sponsors of actual substance and it means something in terms of partnerships rather than sponsors to just fill our time
https://x.com/energycappower/status/1746191920185966663?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
https://x.com/energycappower/status/1746191920185966663?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Crikey cyb, it took 12 years from signing to get ratified! Better hunker back down in the bunker for a decade at least then!
Https://cityreviewss.com/cabinet-ratifies-investment-pact-with-china/
Good morning scotpak and thank you very much for your update on the Nigerian situation and in particular the currency aspect.
Let's hope we continue in the same direction. We don't need any further shocks to the core business
Https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/moodys-upgrades-outlook-nigeria-positive-2023-12-08/
Hi Noix
I'm far from being a Nigerian expert but if you look at Nigerian USD bond spreads (nigerian bond spread - US treasury bond spreads) they continue to tighten. There are several reasons for this. There is of course the recent pivot by US FED who are now signalling rate cuts for 2024 which has put downward pressure on the USD which has been positive for all Emerging mkts including Nigeria. More specific to Nigeria, Moodys upgraded Nigeria's credit outlook from stable to positive. Although the rating is still very low (Caa1) its still a positive development recognising the recent positive momentum from recent fiscal reforms. In addition, Nigeria's current account has improved massively to a surplus of +3.5% of GDP. All these development should help stabilize the Naira, and should help attract more foreign inflows. To conclude many fundamental and mkt pricing signals which indicate things in Nigeria continue to improve.
Scotpak
Given your expertise on the topic any new thoughts on the Nigerian business and more particularly the Naira situation ?
100% full agreement with all your comments FFT.
With the lack of info about what is going on within all aspects of SAVE (not just SS), and the fact that this has been suspended for over a year, I get the feeling that this is turning into a crusade for AK. Which is not good.
With no news by the end of January, the shares should be unsuspended and full info on progress across the company released. It will then be upto the market to decide what the company is worth and whether it has been performing ok or is a laughing stock. It will also allow AK to step down or be ejected and maybe a private equity firm will see value and buy us out.
I do not want the shares suspended any longer. It is dead money that I could use elsewhere.
Just a thought but Canadian oil and gas companies are seriously discounted at the moment. Surely if we were not so stringent on Africa oil and gas M&A it would be a pretty decent place to look for assets
If we do get an extension i think they should just go for a bigger extension like end of March, April or May rather than till the end of Feb 24.
A bigger extension just stops unnecessary debate and better manages expectation rather than progressive incremental extensions.