The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Victoria-Island-Senior-Compliance-Officer-LA/967565855/
https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Esit-Eket-Inventory-and-Material-Supervisor-AK/967562455/
Nigeria team continues to grow shows potential sign of the growth to come from accugas this year
I don't think Charlie Munger would have been very impressed with the last 12 months if he were a SAVE shareholder.
Locked in with limited information on company operations or SS acquisition.
Very poor.
I agree that patience is an important factor to successful investing, but imagine being invested here from 2014 or 2015.
Patience has its limit.
In that time no share price gain, no dividend payouts either.
Munger wouldn't invest in this share with AK trying to run the show.
Compare Knott to the CEOs of SEPL and Afentra, and you will see a huge difference in quality that is required required here.
Time to step aside AK.
Interesting that they have talked to Vitol and Vitol are pre-dominantly one of our backers on deals so could get interesting.......
Further details on Gabon government pre-emption rights................ $1.3bn a significant premium to what M&P offered nearly 100%...........
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012924-signal-to-investors-gabon-junta-goes-for-broke-with-13-bil-assala-oil-pre-emption
https://www.intellinews.com/gabon-seeks-1-3bn-funding-to-buy-assala-oil-company-ahead-of-france-s-maurel-and-prom-310103/
Perhaps using a SS joint venture deal as a template?
By the wording looks like we will help the Gabonese government pre-empt so perhaps a joint bid...............
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/01/30/savannah-energy-joins-the-race-for-a-share-of-carlyle-s-oil-assets,110153645-bre
Savannah Energy joins the race for a share of Carlyle's oil assets. Savannah Energy, the oil company owned by British national Andrew Knott, wrote recently to the oil ministry with an offer to help it pre-empt the oil assets currently held by Carlyle group subsidiary Assala Energy (AI, 26/01/24).3 hours ago
Interesting will probably pull out of suspension and no doubt another suspension for another asset.
Nicely put Kinkell, most people don't realise the value that the accugas asset will unlock this year with CPF completion. There is so much going right for the company still.
- Accugas will see material increase in volumes this year with CPF completion in a few months - No doubt in my mind
- Niger / Benin pipeline complete and on the cusp of commencing exports will mean a better plan for Savannah Niger programme.
- Should see some update on all ICC cases preferably H1 2024.
- Accugas debt re-structure - Hopefully some update in H1 2024
- Potential acquisitions south sudan or another
I truly believe based on organic growth during the suspension period and with every passing month reducing overall debt we should be fairly valued higher than our suspension price especially with whats to come with accugas in the next few months.
As I said on other channel, Charlie Munger, perhaps the most successful investor in our lifetime, said patience was the key to long term investment success.
If you followed the Accugas acquisition you wil recall the long delays, the many turns and twists, but the end result from our CEO's skilful negotiation was and is superb.
The same applies to securing the Niger leases. Delay awaiting the pipeline is fully understandable, and the unforseen political deterioration is a huge disappointment but hopefully only temporary. The potential of the leases is in no way diminished and whoever is in power will want the oil produced.
The negotiation of the Chad interest was also very skillful in the sense that despite a revolution in the country Save is expected to receive substantial compensation although the investment has been minmal thereby minimising the risk.
The same skill has been pplied to the Cameroon asset and if retained will be very lucrative or should be compensated if lost.
We can expect that the same skill has been applied to South Sudann so that if the deal falls through the likely cost and risk will have been minimalised.
Given the currency upheaval in Nigeria the delay in finalising the new banking arrangements should not be a surprise.
And there may be another deal on the horizon.
The delays and setbacks are frustrating for everyone but there is much to be pleased about. We just have to recognise the difficulties arising fro m the regional politics.
Totally agree this share needs to be relisted as they have had over a year to sort this deal out. I know it might not be great for share price but for better or worse want to be able to sell my shares.
I'll be extremely disappointed if the suspension continues. Resumption of trading would force a full ops update - current and potential - rather than the feeble few lines about working the various deal streams.
Let’s see what it holds.
I think realistically a good outcome this week would be a further extension with commentary around ‘significant progress made’ or suchlike but let’s wait and see
Could we go for Etinde assets with new age now that Perenco have pulled out.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BLVN/termination-of-transaction-jxcjggrtkhm10mm.html
Morning all,
komakino's recent post that we have Savannah employees in SS is encouraging (and in danger of getting lost in the panto of the fake job site). Thanks, komakino.
Assuming the source isn't mucking us all around (and I've no reason to believe they are), it got me thinking:
1. We've got people on the ground, but not via jobs advertised on the Savannah website.
2. So we've probably acquired them in a services agreement or SPA from a third-party (Petronas being the obvious guess).
3. Such contract was not deemed worthy of, or material for, an RNS (or we got some legal dispensation to waive RNS given confidentiality issues, if that's even possible).
4. These people are unlikely to be third-party contractors to Savannah as they wouldn't say that they were working for Savannah (unless the message got twisted in translation).
5. So the company is deep into operational issues on the ground (one assumes these partly involve inspection of capital assets and operational performance, though I'd have expected third party QC and QS types doing this, tbh).
6. All this makes me wonder how Andrew and his senior colleagues are spending their days on the ground. Perhaps more of it involves a hard hat and safety glasses than I had previously imagined. He can't be permanently camped outside the minister's office.
7. Finally, as Rocky has been told Andrew remains in Juba (thanks, Rocky), I can't believe funding is an issue at this stage.
8. This is all conjecture, of course.
Can any oil & gas experts on the board shed any light here?
Separate point: it's pretty clear to me that the operational update on the rest of the business is being held back until 1 Feb.
Best wishes
Nilepet on f/book a few hours ago say a meeting was held with the ministry of petroleum and the partners to address the misleading job offers in the 3 joint operating companies through a fake Savannah website. No jobs available at this time and for no one to apply to it.
Interesting that they including Savannah within 24 hours addressed this.
No mention of anything detrimental (or positive) re Savannah in the post. Perhaps all very much up to speed with each other ?
I'm not falling for this - if you can't do £ I'm out
Hi hubs - hope you’re well. This will come a a very nice surprise to you as you’ll know nothing about this whatsoever, so I hope you’re sitting down.
Unbeknowns to yourself, I have silently been working in the background for you and am pleased to inform you that you’ve been awarded a significant amount of money from a very old PPI case. I’m holding the money for you in one of my Nigerian bank accounts and would like to transfer this to you if you would like it. If so please send me all your bank details and I’ll sent the funds to you if and when I get 5 minutes spare?
Oh - one last thing. Would you like to receive the money in USD or NGN as I know some people have had horrific experiences with recent fx fluctuations.
I look forward to hearing from you very soon.
Oyinbo
On reflection it could be unlikely that SAVE would have needed to advertise for staff as these are in place at the JVs between ONGC, CNPC, Petronas unless some decided to leave or move on.
That seems to be the case from the old AI article back on 18-1-22
' Vitol aims for grand slam with Savannah
The success of the two operations in Chad, which are still subject to the approval of the oil and finance ministries, is however only one step in an even more ambitious plan by the Savannah-Vitol duo. Savannah is also looking with great interest at Petronas shares for sale in South Sudan. The British junior informed Petronas of this during the negotiations in Chad. The assets represent some 75,000 bpd for Petronas, with reserves of 300m barrels.
Vitol could also help Savannah financially in exchange for marketing South Sudanese crude.
That would be made easier by the fact that most of Petronas's assets in South Sudan are managed by joint ventures with China's CNPC, which are staffed locally and thus would require the partners to supply little labour. '
The date of the article imo could infer a start date of the transaction as 1/1/22 and now a full 25 months past whch at $30m/month imo could have knocked $750m off the settlement price by now and perhaps some of the balance attached to a greater oil price and/or production milestones.
I cannot for the life of me fathom why anyone would do this? If there was a market I can imagine it being plausible to encourage buying but we are suspended. Can someone less naive open my mind?
Prior to the FY2022 update that appeared to have been rushed out before the year end, the annual Trading Update was released in the last week of January:
FY2020 Trading Update issued 25th January 2021 , FY2021 Trading Update issued 24th January 2022.
Will we see a FY2023 Trading Update in the next few days?
SAVE has put the following on its website:
HOAX JOB OFFERS
We are aware that a website is falsely purporting to offer jobs from Savannah Energy relating to positions in South Sudan. This website is NOT affiliated in any way with Savannah Energy.
Please be aware that genuine employment opportunities at Savannah Energy are ONLY accessible via the careers page of our website: Careers – Savannah Energy (savannah-energy.com)
Sorry to have raised your hopes!
They are spam and I think Savannah may put something on their WEB site quite soon. AK is in SS and working as hard as ever.
Good find Porsche - I think they may progress but albeit slow, is it enough to issue an AD Doc by 1st Feb ler's see, but if there is genuine positive progress than another extension of roughly 2 months till 31st March may be the more likely outcome and more plausible................... Perhaps the wheels are slowly turning and slowly crank up but likelihood is some additional time is probably needed to fully grease all workstreams to come to market.
It looks like the minister of petroleum only returned to office last week so whilst we may have progress are we fully there yet remains to be seen.
https://twitter.com/puot_kang/status/1747906200128151721