George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
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... an alternative oil evacuation route.
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
Tier - SS Government is in a dire financial situation so unless so dodgy transaction occurs there is slim chance of them purchasing the acquisition themselves.
A few articles below to stew on until savannah is able to pull the finger out and provide updates
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
Morning Savers. I certainly hope so. It’s unthinkable if SS at this stage still doesn’t want to sale to go though. Do they still want to buy the assets themselves?
StreetsofGold - I am guessing the recent red sea troubles as a matter of fact would re-instate Petronas stance further for leaving. Obviously for someone like size of our company can extract significant value and is probably still a good asset to go for even with export interruptions especially if the balance of payment on closing is low with the significant amount of time passed since deal inception.
It clearly hinges on approvals being the main thing that slows progress or stops the deal from occruing.
Thanks CYB. Hopefully this is the final bilateral meeting between Petronas & SS Government before confirming sale with ministerial sign off and a Presidential signing ceremony. One would have thought that SS desperately/ urgently needs a new operator committed to growing bbl/day to grow revenues for the Government.
Apologies - I meant compressed gas
Https://cityreviewss.com/looming-controversy-over-shake-up-at-ministry-of-petroleum/
Is the CCgas not expected to command an ivreased price?
Zengas - if there is a signing bonus attached to approval and deal it could expedite approval especially when the government is in need of cash
F/book 1 hour ago reporting on an interview with the minister of information saying the 23-24 budget will not be met as oil production reduced, gelling in 2 pipeline stations and difficulty getting oil out from port sudan due to the attacks on shipping in the red sea.
They intend to strengthten the non oil sector for the economy. Saying that we don't know what the actual oil production numbers are, they could be down as little as 10-20k but which still makes a huge difference to meeting their budget. One would think the government wouldn't be in the position for buying up oil assets.
Also this article on the challenges for S.Sudan via the red sea/houthi attcks on shipping.
https://bnnbreaking.com/world/yemen/south-sudan-oil-exports-hit-by-yemeni-houthi-attacks-amid-sudan-conflict
Buffett is bullish on energy “ When the dust settles, America’s power needs and the consequent capital expenditure will be staggering”
https://www.forexlive.com/news/warren-buffett-capital-spending-on-americas-power-needs-will-be-staggering-20240226/amp/
Zengas
Thanks for the reply and the clarification.
Thanks Zengas - as ever appreciate your thoughts but at the same time the company could do a lot better with comms on such questions in my opinion, answers even as small as the one you provide for example go along way. I am hoping sooner or later Savannah are able to fully articulate the full value of the accugas asset
For 2022. The average gas price was $3.69 mcf spread across 8 contracts for 2022.
Revenue was $212.5m ($181.1m for gas, $29.8m for oil and condensate and another $1.6m for handling 3rd party oil).
If we were doing 200-220 mmcf/d consistently it would be $270m - $300m plus another $30m+ oil from S.Creek.
So to run consistently at 200 - 220 mmcf/d at present capacity or when the compression project completes it could generate an additional $90m - $110m revenue with most of the fixed costs already taken for. That size revenue would be a game changer as would the debottling of S.Creek oil that practically double capacity/sales.
Trust as i see it we're buying 3rd party gas so we should be doubling on the purchase price i would think given what Save sells the Uquo gas to Accugas for. I don't think there'll be any valueing 3rd party gas reserves as we don't own them but yep there should be a value given to the sales portion and certainly a good growth market for 3rd party suppliers such as Amocon.
We have 200 mmcf/d processing and rising to 220 mmcf/d with the compression project - maybe a bit more but surely the emphasis is on safety.
The pipeline capacity is up to 600 mmcf/d so around 400 mmcf/d spare depending where the gas goes in.
Zengas - One thing that will be interesting is how the company and market values third party gas reserves for example the gas that goes through our network from Amocon, the company did mention they see a lot of stranded gas assets that can be converted or utilised through our pipeline.
It will be interesting to see the book value of 2p reserves from third party licences or acreage and how they can value this or provide numbers to for example the gas that we get from AMOCON is licence OML 156, I couldn't find 2p reserve number for this licence online, but it would be interesting data point purely because if Amocon have significant reserves and the only way to cash in is through our pipeline than that gas effectively strengthens our 2p numbers albeit not our gas if that makes sense.
Any thoughts on this ?
Noix, They do total that, but the ones over and above the 3 originals are for 'an up to amount' which i don't beleive is fullfilled consistently at that rate. They are also buying in up to 20 mmcf/d gas from Amocon.
"Gas supplied from Amocon does not require processing by Accugas and therefore does not utilise available capacity at the Uquo CPF" = 31/5/23 RNS
Https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/petronas-announces-exit-from-south-sudan-noc-evaluates-portfol.html
Old but worth a quick read on Petronas motives for exit
Scotpak - agreed but clearly still plenty of deliberation ongoing still, one would think if Petronas and Savannah have kept it alive till now, neither parties will flake out. So effectively forcing the SS government to take a formal stance on the deal either through an approval or formal rejection.
Maybe the minister wants to ask Petronas on reasons they sold and their thoughts on Savannah as an operator for his peace of mind before approving deal? Might not necessarily be to plead for Petronas to come back. Of course Im gonna be biased as I hold a large SAVE share position.
TrustLie
Thanks for the explanation.
Tier - Sounds to me like they are clinging on to Petronas I wonder if they are trying to convince them to stay. Approvals still seem far away 4 weeks to go don't think we will get it to be fair.
This suggests still no government approval for Save.
#South_Sudan's Trade Minister and Ambassador meet Mark Fitzgerald, Vice President of #Petronas for Intl. Assets, in #Malaysia to discuss the company's activities in 🇸🇸. However, in December 2022, Petronas decided to sell its entire oil and gas business in 🇸🇸 to Savannah Energy.
https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1762424020379505150